With whom to learn to be short six times behind: online education how both profitable and rapid growth?

category:Finance
 With whom to learn to be short six times behind: online education how both profitable and rapid growth?


According to the report released by muddy water, 70% or even 80% of the users who learn from others are fake users. Correspondingly, more than 80% or even 90% of the users income are fake users. This is confirmed by the former manager who learns from others, who also discloses who learns to use robots as users.

Learn from who then responded to the muddy water report. Learn from who CEO Chen Xiangdong said in the wechat friends circle, muddy waters short report has done homework, and its technical thinking is also worth praising, but its a pity that they didnt understand who they learned the online live double normal class model..

Sorting out all previous shorting, accusing someone to learn how to falsely increase users, and then falsely increase revenue and profits is one of the core of shorting report. This is the mystery of who to learn from. According to the financial report released on May 6, the net income of who to learn from in the first quarter of fiscal year 2020 is 1.298 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 382%, the net profit of non-U.S. general accounting standards is 191 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 406%, and the number of people paying for regular courses reaches 774000, a year-on-year increase of 307%.

Real users or robots?

According to muddy water, 70% or even 80% of users are robots. This is because it downloaded data about who it studied more than 200 paid K12 courses with, covering 54065 independent users.

According to muddy water, there are four user joining modes that can prove who the user is learning from is actually a robot. These four modes are: precise joiners, burst joiners, gsxipjoiners (IP joiners), and early joiners.

More than half (52.8%) of users are defined as precise enrollees, that is, users who join a class on the same day of two different weeks. According to Hunshui, the probability of users logging in at the same time is extremely low, similar to that the weekly flight from city a to city B lands twice in the same second.

Sudden enrollee refers to a large number of users who suddenly join in the same second, and this abnormal phenomenon is more concentrated in the participation of few student users in the course.

Muddy water also notes some early adopters, users who log into online courses too early. It was found that the total number of early participants was 7579 (14.0%), of which 3676 (48.5%) showed at least one other postulated robot behavior.

In addition, there are users who have duplicate IP addresses with teachers or other students. Muddy water defines these users as IP participants. According to Hunshui, IP enrollees are the only identified student users, and at least 28.2% of student users share the IP of teachers or tutors.

In response, the tutor will open the small class interaction mode about 30 minutes before each class in the mode of double division and large class, and accompany the students by playing games, reviewing homework, preview before class, etc. When the class is officially started, or after the lecturer enters the live room, switch the live room from small class to large class led by the lecturer through manual or automatic mode.

Due to the relatively fixed curriculum cycle of K12, in the process of switching from small class to large class, from the perspective of large class, there will be multiple precise participants mentioned in the muddy water report arriving at the same time in different classes, sudden participants entering the live room at the same time, as well as early participants caused by the interaction between students arriving early and tutors.

In response to who learned, after trying to reproduce the IP coincidence degree of students and teachers mentioned in the report by various methods, we could not reach the conclusion that the coincidence degree was 28.2%, only 0.78% was found. Generally, in home broadband, the IP address of users is provided by broadband operators, and there is a probability that the same IP will be reused by different users. According to who, 0.78% IP coincidence is within a reasonable range.

Citron was very serious when making the first report. They used eight technicians to enter our system. When we set up the video interaction system, we opened some permissions, so citron can come to climb our data, but citron missed the high-level classroom that accounts for 70% of the whole K12 business with whom. Chen Xiangdong said on May 7.

After many times of shorting with whom to learn, the hot online education industry costs abnormally high and burns heavily. According to some investors, the two head organizations of K12 online education lost 1.6 billion yuan and 2 billion yuan respectively in 2019.

Some companies are prone to go in the wrong direction for financing or listing. An education investment professional told reporters.

However, some data caliber of online education institutions are quite different, which makes the outside world more confused. For example, the renewal rate can be affected by promotion and other means because online education institutions have a variety of pricing strategies. For example, from 49 yuan class to 99 yuan class, the renewal rate will be relatively high due to the small price change, but from 49 yuan class to 1499 yuan class, the renewal rate will be affected.

According to the above investment industry personage, the promotion policy launched by some institutions is that students who are studying class 799 can renew the fee to class 49, such renewal rate can be imagined.

But there is a data that wont be fake, that is, the total number of paid people in a certain period of time. This is the Polaris data of online education institutions. The caliber is dead, and there is only one indicator. Chen Xiangdong told 21st century economic reporter. However, its strange that the number of payers in the first quarter of 2020 is 774000, achieving a net income of 1.298 billion yuan, while the number of payers in the fourth quarter of 2019 is 1.12 million, with a net income of 935 million yuan. Why has the number of paid people decreased while the income increased? Chen Xiangdong told reporters, with whom to learn the 774000 paid person times in the first quarter of 2020, is a new paying user. In fact, the net income in the first quarter of 2020 is largely contributed by paying users in the fourth quarter of 2019, as the education industry collects tuition fees three months or 60 hours in advance. Source: responsible editor of 21st century economic report: Wang Xiaowu_ NF

But there is a data that wont be fake, that is, the total number of paid people in a certain period of time. This is the Polaris data of online education institutions. The caliber is dead, and there is only one indicator. Chen Xiangdong told 21st century economic reporter.

However, its strange that the number of payers in the first quarter of 2020 is 774000, achieving a net income of 1.298 billion yuan, while the number of payers in the fourth quarter of 2019 is 1.12 million, with a net income of 935 million yuan. Why has the number of paid people decreased while the income increased?

Chen Xiangdong told reporters, with whom to learn the 774000 paid person times in the first quarter of 2020, is a new paying user. In fact, the net income in the first quarter of 2020 is largely contributed by paying users in the fourth quarter of 2019, as the education industry collects tuition fees three months or 60 hours in advance.