Why the price of pigs has been falling continuously
According to the pig sales data released by several listed companies from January to April, as a whole, due to the investment of last year to expand the scale of pig raising, the number of pigs on the market in the first quarter has increased to varying degrees, among which the number of pigs on the market of Zhengbang Technology and tianbang shares has doubled. However, affected by the decline of pig price, the income of enterprises on a month on month basis is declining, and jinxinnongs pig business even has a loss.
Take leading enterprises as an example, sales volume of live pigs (including pigs and fresh products) in the first quarter of Wynn two hundred and twenty-five point two six 10000, down year on year 62.2% ; sold commodity pigs in April eighty-six point four two 10000, month on month growth 1.43% But the average price of pig sales fell month on month 5.65% u3002 The pig sales volume of muyuan in the first quarter was two hundred and fifty-six point four 10000, down about 16.7% ; pig sales in April one hundred and twenty-four point seven 10000, year-on-year growth 18.5% , but the average price falls to twenty-nine point one Yuan / kg. Total sales of pigs of Zhengbang technology from January to April one hundred and fifty-three point five one 10000, down year on year 32.16% ; pig sales in April forty-eight point six eight 10000 pigs (including piglets and commercial pigs), month on month growth 19.95% , down year on year 15.36% , average selling price of commodity pig thirty-three point four five Yuan / kg, down on a month on month basis 4.16% u3002 Tianbang 1-4 and selling commodity pigs sixty-eight point eight five 10000, down year on year 33.6% ; sold commodity pigs in April seventeen point four eight 10000, average sales price thirty-two point two seven Yuan / kg, down on a month on month basis 22.61% and 2.3% u3002 New hope pig sales in April thirty-one point zero four 10000 head, 15% month on month growth, 39% year on year growth, average price of pig sales thirty-two point eight eight Yuan / kg, month on month growth 0.3% u3002
In the first quarter of this year, according to the data from the head enterprises, the number of pigs released by many old brand pig breeding listed enterprises, such as Wenshi and muyuan, fell sharply year-on-year. In the first quarter, the number of pigs released by Wenshi shares fell more than 60% year-on-year. On the contrary to the year-on-year decline in sales volume, the income of pigs raised by enterprises in the first quarter rose sharply year-on-year. In April, the number of pigs released by enterprises was generally lower It is on the rise.
Pig market supply is still tight, which is one of the main reasons for the current high price of pigs. From the first quarter and April sales performance of listed pig enterprises, the average selling price of commodity fattening pigs of major pig enterprises is generally above 32 yuan / kg, and the average profit of commodity pig heads of many enterprises is less than 1000 yuan, which shows that the cost of pig breeding is generally greatly increased, such as the cost of dead cleaning and the price of feed, which can not be ignored, which also becomes a major support for the high price operation of pigs.
In 2019, China released 544 million live pigs, a decrease of 150 million over the previous year, and the pork output was 42.55 million tons, a decrease of 11.49 million tons over the previous year. The market generally expects that Chinas pork production will continue to decline in 2020. New hope and other enterprises also make the judgment that the domestic pork supply in 2020 will be more scarce than last year.
From the perspective of monthly changes, Feng Yonghui believes that affected by African swine fever, pneumonia and breeding cycle, the supply of pork in the first three quarters of this year will be low, and there will be significant growth in the fourth quarter, but only one quarter can not pull the supply of the whole year, so the annual average price of pork in this year will increase by 50% compared with last year. In terms of specific prices, the second quarter will be the lowest price of pigs in the year because it is in the off-season of sales and the first quarter will squeeze the release of commercial pigs on hand; the number of pigs on hand in the fourth quarter will be significantly increased, but the price will still be higher than that in the second quarter because of the peak consumption season.
The order of pig prices in four quarters of the year should be three, one, four and two. Feng Yonghui predicted.
What is the impact of overseas epidemic on imported pork
The outbreak of the overseas epidemic has also brought a huge impact on the meat slaughtering and processing industry. Due to a large number of employees infection, the meat processing industry in the United States began to shut down in April. By the beginning of May, more than 20 large-scale meat processing plants in the factories of Tyson, JBS and other food enterprises had been temporarily closed, the supply and demand of meat in the United States had been out of balance, and the slaughter volume of pigs had declined about 40% year on year. On the other hand, as the processing plant was forced to shut down, a large number of local pigs on hand could not be sold and listed smoothly, and they could not be slaughtered privately. The amount of meat stored in the warehouse increased greatly, and the price of pigs fell sharply. Many American farmers euthanized pigs to reduce the cost of storage.
From the perspective of global pork export, the United States and the European Union are the most important export places of global pork export. In 2018, global pork exports reached nearly 8 million tons, of which the United States and the European Union accounted for about 65%. As one of the largest pork exporting countries, will the turmoil in the US meat market affect Chinas pork imports?
In contrast, Chinas pork imports in recent two years mainly come from many European countries, as well as Brazil and Argentina in South America, and the United States accounts for about 1 / 4 of the pork imports. With the significant progress of trade negotiations between China and the United States in December last year, China and the United States signed a pork supply agreement on January 15 this year. After China promised to expand the import of pork and poultry from the United States, the volume of pork imported from the United States began to soar in the first quarter. In the first quarter, China imported 168000 tons of pork from the United States, plus a total of 280000 tons of pork products, about three times the import volume in the same period of 2019, accounting for one third of the total export volume of pork and products of the United States in the first quarter of this year.
Feng Yonghui analyzed to the first financial reporter that the epidemic situation in the United States and Europe will cause some uncertainty to Chinas pork import, but the import sources in Europe are scattered in many countries. The number of large-scale meat processing enterprises such as Smithfield, Tyson, Cargill and JBS in the United States is large, and only a part of them are forced to shut down, and some of the relevant factories shut down have been restored In general, the risks are scattered. Chinas pork imports will not be greatly affected. This years total pork imports will surely rise.
The output expansion of pig enterprises is not equal to the output of live pigs
In 2019, major listed breeding companies have raced to enclosure, trying to expand the scale of pig breeding, and at the same time, trying to improve the level of prevention and control of swine plague in Africa, and strengthening the biological safety prevention and control measures. At present, the level of epidemic prevention and control of most enterprises in the industry has been significantly improved, and the growth of pig output from January to April compared with the third and fourth quarters of last year is intuitive evidence.
However, it is worth noting that the new scale plan of pig raising enterprises is not equal to the actual number of new projects. A large number of new projects from planning, land acquisition, plant construction, breeding, fattening to marketing have a cycle that can not be skipped. In the middle of the cycle, it may need to experience several failures and trial again. Domestic pig marketing should return to the normal level, and it is impossible to achieve immediate results.
From the perspective of capacity supply, according to the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas industrial monitoring on the data of monthly sow breeding, she thinks the figure is still on the high side. Because there is a fixed cycle from the time of pig breeding to the time of birth to the time of listing. Based on the published number of sows that can be bred in 2019, the data of listing in 2020 can be calculated very accurately. In this way, the supply of pigs this year is still very tight.
In addition, she said, more consideration should be given to the stock of meat slaughtered in advance by slaughterhouses. In 2019, especially in the first half of the year, when the number of live pigs on hand has not been reduced to the bottom, the slaughterhouse sees the trend of price increase, which is basically full horsepower production, and at the same time, the stock is also loaded to the full. And there are many actual or suspected African swine fever infected pigs, in the absence of strict management environment was sent to the slaughterhouse slaughtered. But in 2020, the number of live pigs on hand has fallen to the bottom. The slaughterhouse just wants to kill more pigs and keep more stocks. There are no pigs in the market. And now the management of African swine fever is more strict, there is no chance to kill it quietly, so even if the number of pigs in the bank recovers slowly, the supply of pork may not be more than last year.
From the perspective of consumption demand, January to March and October to December are the two cycles of each year. We can see the approximate pork consumption, we can see how big the gap between demand and supply is. The main reason why the gap between the supply and pork consumption in 2020 is large is that the sows can be bred. The second reason is that last year was the first year of the outbreak. In fact, the main pigs were put out ahead of schedule, so the supply is much smaller than last year in general. Wang Shuhua told reporters.
Even though the major pig raising enterprises released the plan of pig production expansion last year, there are not many pigs that can be put on the market this year. The growth and reproduction of pigs need a cycle, which is a natural law. This years output will be in a state of slow growth. Next years output will be significantly higher than this years, and the next years output is expected to break out, which is also in line with the pace of the three-year action plan for pig production capacity recovery issued by the Ministry of agriculture. Feng Yonghui told first finance.
The reporter learned that at present, the success rate of resumption of production in the whole industry is slowly increasing, the success rate of resumption of production of head enterprises is about 50%, and the overall industry is still not more than 50%. The risk of external environmental pollution that is difficult to completely avoid is still the key reason that restricts the success rate of resumption of production of pig breeding.
The level of biosafety prevention and control has been greatly improved by the listed companies, and the hardware facilities of the new plants invested and built by the head enterprises are very advanced. However, due to the strong infectivity of African swine fever, the external environment pollution can not be completely avoided. Feng Yonghui told reporters that the farms with African swine fever epidemic need to do a series of cleaning, disinfection and epidemic prevention work. If the pigs dont get sick one month after entering the site, they will be successful in resumption of production, but they may get sick again two or three months later. If they cant keep out of the market until half a year later, they will fail. This situation accounts for about 60-70% of the current resumption of production of pig breeding, and small and medium-sized breeding It is very difficult for households to enter the ranks of resumption of production. Even if they enter the resumption of production, the hardware conditions and biosafety prevention and control measures are not in place, it will also limit the improvement of the success rate of resumption.
Need to worry about excess
Recently, there are some voices in the industry worried that in the next three to five years, as a large number of pig breeding enterprises expand production and market output, there will be a serious surplus in domestic pig breeding industry.
According to Feng Yonghui, according to the changing law of the supply-demand relationship, in fact, the recovery of pig production capacity must go to the state of surplus, but the precondition of surplus is that all the pigs raised can survive smoothly, whether the vaccine can be put into production and applied as soon as possible, and whether the African swine fever virus will mutate are important constraints.
Liu Chang, chairman of new hope Liuhe, said that there must be some differences between this times pig cycle and the previous one, because this time it was mainly hit by African swine fever, and the stock of parents representatives dropped dramatically, which combined to lead to a longer time for capacity recovery. Novel coronavirus pneumonia is a relatively severe disease. The shortage of the whole supply side has brought about the particularity of the pig cycle. The environment of the new crown pneumonia epidemic will prolong the pig cycle as a whole, so the pig price will continue to run high throughout the year.
In the future, even if the cycle is over, we believe that it is an inevitable trend for the whole pig industry to continue to move forward in a centralized and large-scale way. At the end of this cycle, the competition environment will also be different. The main participants will be large-scale breeding companies. When we compare the cost ability, production efficiency and the control ability of the whole industrial chain, we will compare the control ability of African swine fever, the environmental protection ability of continuous optimization iteration, and so on. May your fighting method be the same as the previous one with retail investors as the core Same. Liu Chang said.
New hope Liuhe and Yan Zhichun, chief scientist and director of Pig Breeding Research Institute, told reporters that the companys pig farms and pig herds under construction have been greatly optimized in layout, especially in technological process. In fact, they are ready to deal with the next low price of pig prices. New hopes pig farms under construction are all equipped with self fattening farms, especially It is suitable for the implementation of precision nutrition measures in the future. The pig farm we are building should be ready for the sale of 11 yuan / kg pigs. At present, the concentration of domestic pig industry is not high. The continuous impact of the African swine fever epidemic makes a large number of small and medium-sized farmers withdraw from the market, while giving large enterprises space to fully expand. Liu Chang believes that the trend of pig breeding industry scale and centralization brought by the superposition of the two epidemics will be accompanied by the change of the whole industrial chain, including feed, breeding, slaughtering and other links. What is tested is the operation ability of a companys whole industrial chain, the ability of cross professional talent organization, and the collaborative operation ability of such scale management and operation and the superposition of financial tools, I think there may be more opportunities for large enterprises. Source: editor in charge of the first financial daily: Guo Chenqi, nbj9931
New hope Liuhe and Yan Zhichun, chief scientist and director of Pig Breeding Research Institute, told reporters that the companys pig farms and pig herds under construction have been greatly optimized in layout, especially in technological process. In fact, they are ready to deal with the next low price of pig prices. New hopes pig farms under construction are all equipped with self fattening farms, especially It is suitable for the implementation of precision nutrition measures in the future. The pig farm we are building should be ready for the sale of 11 yuan / kg pigs.
At present, the concentration of domestic pig industry is not high. The continuous impact of the African swine fever epidemic makes a large number of small and medium-sized farmers withdraw from the market, while giving large enterprises space to fully expand.
Liu Chang believes that the trend of pig breeding industry scale and centralization brought by the superposition of the two epidemics will be accompanied by the change of the whole industrial chain, including feed, breeding, slaughtering and other links. What is tested is the operation ability of a companys whole industrial chain, the ability of cross professional talent organization, and the collaborative operation ability of such scale management and operation and the superposition of financial tools, I think there may be more opportunities for large enterprises.