After the U.S. ban in 2019 and within the time limit of temporary licensing, Huawei actively prepared for some key components that need to be imported from the U.S., improving the inventory level, the report said.
On May 15, 2020, the United States announced to extend the temporary license of Huawei communication industry for another 90 days, but the statement was the last extension. Therefore, Everbright Securities said that it is reasonable to speculate that before August 13, 2020, Huawei still has sufficient time to stock some key components and parts, further improving the inventory level.
1. The United States picks Huawei again
On May 15, 2020, the U.S. Department of Commerce published two consecutive messages on its official website:
First, it announced the renewal of Huaweis temporary general license for the communications industry for another 90 days, but the announcement was the last extension. The 90 day extension provides an opportunity for users of Huawei equipment and telecom operators, especially those in rural areas of the United States, to continue to use Huawei equipment and accelerate the switch to other suppliers.
(i) Huawei and its affiliates on the entity list (for example, Hisilicon semiconductor) use the software and technology on the U.S. Commerce control list to produce products such as semiconductor design.
(II) chipsets produced outside the United States using semiconductor manufacturing equipment on the CCL list, in accordance with the design specifications of Huawei or its affiliates on the entity list (for example, Hisilicon semiconductor).
In order to prevent direct adverse economic impact on foreign factories using US semiconductor manufacturing equipment, any products that have been started to be manufactured in accordance with Huaweis design specifications on May 15, 2020 will not be subject to these new licenses as long as they meet the following conditions: within 120 days from the effective date (may 15, 2020), they will be able to re export (re export trade) fromuff08 U.S. exports or transfers abroad.
1.2. Event review: Huaweis adverse development under US pressure
On May 17, 2019, he Tingbo, President of Hisilicon semiconductor, a chip company owned by Huawei, said that Hisilicon would launch the spare wheel plan to fulfill the companys commitment to continuous customer service, so as to ensure the strategic safety of most of the companys products and the continuous supply of most of its products.
Since then, the United States announced to extend Huaweis temporary license in August, November, February, March and may of 2019, respectively.
Because when Huawei entered the dark time of entity list, Ren Zhengfei, the founder of Huawei, said that Huawei had been prepared for a long time, and compared Huawei to a plane riddled with holes. In such a dilemma, Huawei could only fly while repairing the loopholes and adjusting the route. Huawei achieved revenue of 858.8 billion yuan in 2019, up 19.1% year on year. In the first quarter of 2020, Huaweis revenue reached 182.2 billion yuan, up 1.4% year on year.
Start the spare wheel plan and accelerate the replacement of domestic products. After the US ban, Huawei Hisilicon launched the spare tire plan, and accelerated the introduction of domestic suppliers to achieve domestic substitution. According to the dismantling analysis of Huawei mate 30 by Fomalhaut technosolutions, a Japanese professional investigation company, the usage rate of Chinese parts has increased from about 25% to about 42% in terms of amount since the US ban. At the same time, American parts dropped from about 11% to about 1%.
On May 15, 2020, the U.S. amended the export control regulations (ear) to restrict Huaweis upgrading, from EDA software, semiconductor equipment to wafer foundry. The U.S. chose to block the supply of global semiconductor suppliers to China in a drastic way, but gave a buffer period of 120 days.
Taking TSMC and SMIC as examples, almost all of Huaweis high-end chips are manufactured by TSMC and SMIC. Considering the impact of the new regulations of the United States, Huawei may actively pull goods from representative factories such as TSMC and SMIC within 120 days, thus affecting the production planning and progress of upstream supply chain manufacturers such as TSMC and SMIC.
3.1. Reverse the list of unreliable entities
Global Times pointed out that if the United States further sticks its neck on Huawei and prevents TSMC and other companies from supplying chips to China, the Chinese side may give a strong counterattack, including including including including relevant U.S. companies in the list of unreliable entities, restricting or investigating Qualcomm, Cisco, apple and other U.S. companies in accordance with laws and regulations, suspending the purchase of Boeing aircraft and so on.
As early as May 31, 2019, Gao Feng, a spokesman for the Ministry of Commerce, once told the media that China would establish an unreliable entity list system in accordance with relevant laws and regulations. Foreign enterprises, organizations or individuals that do not abide by market rules, deviate from the spirit of contracts, block or cut off Chinese enterprises for non-commercial purposes, or seriously damage the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises will be included in the list of unreliable entities.
Zhi Lushun, director of the security and Control Bureau of the Ministry of Commerce, further explained this on June 1, 2019. The Chinese government will take four factors into consideration when deciding whether to include an entity in the list of unreliable entities:
First, whether the entity has implemented blockade, denial or other discriminatory measures against Chinese entities;
Third, whether the entitys behavior causes material damage to Chinese enterprises or related industries;
Fourth, whether the acts of the entity pose a threat or potential threat to national security.
In the electronic industry, especially in the semiconductor industry, the global division of labor is very significant. China is the worlds largest chip consumer, Chinas huge consumer market, so that foreign semiconductor, technology companies rush. According to Bloomberg statistics, 71% of its annual revenue depends on the Chinese market, while chip giants Qualcomm and Broadcom account for more than 50% of their annual revenue in China.
According to the BCG report, the escalation of trade tensions between China and the United States may lead to a total ban on technology exports by the United States and decoupling of technology industries between the two countries. The direct impact of decoupling on us semiconductor companies will be the loss of a large amount of revenue, which originally came from both Chinese customers and other foreign customers who eventually decoupled from the US. Overall, if direct and indirect impacts are taken into account, U.S. semiconductor revenue will fall by 37%, equivalent to $83 billion in 2018. About three-quarters of the impact will be a direct result of Chinese customers having to replace U.S. semiconductors because of the U.S. technology export ban. As a result, its impact will occur almost immediately after the US restrictions come into effect.
4. Looking at domestic substitution for a long time, fully independent and controllable
In the Research Report the short-term impact of Huawei ban in the United States is controllable and it is expected to drive the rise of Chinas science and technology industry in the long term released on May 22, 2019, we pointed out that the domestic substitution of Huawei or science and technology industry chain needs to be divided into three categories for discussion: (1) parts supply chain: high-end chips still have a large degree of external dependence on the United States, so it is necessary to support domestic chip suppliers and improve the localization rate; u2461 Chip industry chain: the chip industry has a high degree of division of labor, and the upstream EDA, IP, OEM and equipment are likely to have an impact, so it is necessary to vigorously support the upstream domestic manufacturers to achieve domestic substitution; u2462 operating system: electronic products are highly close application ecology of software and hardware integration, so it is necessary to vigorously develop the operating system and establish domestic software application ecology.
4.1. Parts supply chain: support domestic suppliers
Huaweis hardware products mainly include three major products: communication base stations and optical communication equipment (operator business), consumer electronics (consumer market) such as mobile phones, and servers (enterprise business). In addition to the disk storage business that needs to rely on imported hard disks and disk arrays from Seagate, western data and other companies, there are domestic substitutes for the imported parts of other product lines, but the performance of most domestic products cannot meet the requirements of Huaweis existing products for the time being, and a small number of products can only be replaced in the low-end market or in some links. Kirin and solar of Hisilicon Series of NP and Tiangang base station chips have been basically replaced.
4.2. Self developed chip industry chain: EDA, OEM and equipment need to be independently controlled
4.2.1 EDA and IP are dependent on American manufacturers and need to be controlled independently
If EDA can not be updated, it will affect the advanced process design. The global EDA industry is mainly monopolized by three EDA manufacturers: Synopsys, cadence, and mentor graphics, which was acquired by Siemens in 2016. At present, Huada Jiutian, the largest EDA company in China, can only provide about 1 / 3 of the EDA solutions needed by the industry, and cannot realize domestic substitution in a short period of time. EDA manufacturers are authorized to design companies by selling license certificates, and EDA tools are highly related to the chip process, which will be updated and upgraded with the progress of the process. If the EDA manufacturer stops supplying, Huaweis EDA tools can still be used within the validity period of the license, but they cannot be updated and upgraded with the support of the EDA manufacturer. In other words, Huaweis current 7Nm design is not affected, but the 5nm design may be affected in the future.
On May 1, 2020, according to the report of science and technology innovation board daily, Huawei Hisilicon cooperated with Italian French semiconductor to develop EDA design technology. Huawei Hisilicons chip design is subject to the US technical ban, so it bypasses STM joint design. For example, STM uses EDA chip design tools to do the preliminary circuit design, later Hisilicon takes over, and then completes the design through a representative factory.
In terms of domestic EDA, several domestic EDA manufacturers have sprouted. In 2008, domestic companies engaged in EDA research include Huada electronics, Huatian Zhonghui, core vision, akesaili, shengjingwei, technology industry thought, Guangli micro and Xunmei, etc. After ten years of development, Huada Jiutian, Conspectus electronics, Xinhe technology, Guangli micro, Boda micro and other enterprises showed their vitality from domestic EDA formation.
Arm architecture of IP core needs independent development. Taking Huaweis SOC Kirin chip for mobile phones as an example, it adopts arm architecture, and integrates CPU, GPU, NPU, ISP, DSP, memory and other IP cores. Arm authorization can be divided into use layer authorization, kernel layer authorization, architecture authorization and instruction set authorization. At present, apple, Qualcomm and Samsung are authorized by the instruction set, which can carry out self-developed architecture based on the public version architecture; while Huawei is authorized by the architecture, which has permanent authorization of the latest commercial architecture armv8 architecture. If arm stops service, Huawei can still use armv8 and the previous public version architecture to design and independently develop and improve its own arm architecture.
Xinyuan, a domestic IP manufacturer, has five types of processor IP, more than 1400 mixed digital analog IP and radio frequency IP. Xinyuan has excellent design capabilities in traditional CMOS, advanced FinFET, fd-soi and other global mainstream semiconductor process nodes. In terms of advanced semiconductor process nodes, the company has the successful experience of 14nm / 10nm / 7Nm FinFET and 28nm / 22nm fd-soi process node chips, and has started the design pre research of new generation FinFET and fd-soi process node chips. According to IPnest statistics, the core of Chinas mainland ranked first in 2018, the worlds sixth ranked semiconductor IP authorized service provider.
4.2.2 OEM and equipment are high-performance guarantee and need to be controlled independently
TSMC is a high-performance guarantee, followed by SMIC. The chips designed by Huawei are mainly manufactured by TSMC and SMIC. TSMC has the most advanced manufacturing process. Apple and Qualcomms SOC chips are mainly manufactured by TSMC. Huaweis mobile SOC chip can compete with apple Qualcomm without the support of TSMCs advanced manufacturing process. If TSMC does not provide OEM to Huawei in the future, Huawei chips can only rely on domestic and international manufacturers, and lag behind in the manufacturing process.
The 14 nm process of SMIC has been mass produced at the end of 2019. The 14 nm process of SMIC has been adopted by Qilin 710A, the mid-range chip of Huawei glory play4t. After 14nm, SMIC also has more advanced n + 1 and N + 2 processes, among which n + 1 process has completed the flow sheet in 2019q4, which is currently in the product verification stage of customers, and is expected to produce in 2020q4. Compared with 14nm, the performance of N + 1 process is improved by 20%, power consumption is reduced by 57%, logic area is reduced by 63%, SOC area is reduced by 55%, and the performance and cost of N + 2 process are higher.
The equipment may cut off the lifeline, and the domestic equipment will accelerate its development. Whether TSMC or SMIC, semiconductor devices are needed in the chip process. American semiconductor equipment manufacturers Amat, Lam, KLA and Tera occupy a very high share in many subdivisions. However, at present, there is no way to build a production line composed of domestic equipment in China, so it is difficult to avoid American equipment to produce chips.
Semiconductor equipment gradually broke the international monopoly, and the promotion of localization rate accelerated. Benefiting from the 02 special plan, with capital investment and technological breakthrough, domestic semiconductor equipment manufacturers are gradually breaking foreign monopoly in the subdivision field, and the localization rate is accelerated. The logic of increasing the localization rate of semiconductor equipment is confirmed by the leading Middle and micro companies of equipment and North Huachuang. The technical level of etching equipment of Zhongwei company has reached the international similar product standards, 7-nm and 5-nm etching equipment has been certified by TSMC and entered the production line, MOCVD equipment has achieved the improvement of localization rate, accounting for 41% of the new market of MOCVD for gallium nitride based LED in 2018; the main products of Huachuang in North China, such as etching equipment, PVD, CVD, oxidation diffusion equipment, have basically achieved 28 nm mass production, 14 Nano into the production line validation, 7 / 5 nano research and development. Semiconductor equipment, as the key investment area of the second phase of the large fund, is expected to further accelerate the promotion of localization rate driven by policy dividend.
4.3 operating system: Huawei builds HMS and Kunpeng ecology
Hardware and software are closely connected. At present, the processor chip of mobile terminal mainly adopts arm architecture, and the operation mainly includes Android and IOS system; while the processing chip of computer desktop is mainly x86 architecture, and the operating system mainly includes windows, MacOS, Linux, etc. The server processing chip is also a x86 architecture, and the operating system mainly includes Linux, windows, etc. The base station equipment processor mainly adopts MIPS architecture, and the operating system is Linux.
4.3.1 Huawei HMS replaces Google GMS
Huawei mobile phone adopts Android system. As Google has stopped cooperating with Huawei, Huawei will lose access to the update of Googles Android operating system. AOSP can continue to develop new Android system only after the update of open source version, and can no longer use Google services (GMS) such as Gmail, Google play, youtube, etc. As Googles businesses and applications have not entered China, the loss of these businesses has little impact on Huaweis market in China. But in places like Europe, Africa, the Middle East and other parts of Asia, the change may have some impact on Huaweis mobile phone business.
Huawei has launched its own HMS service and HMS core 4.0 service for the world. While improving the framework, Huawei has granted more rights to developers. In addition, Huawei also launched Huawei search, Huawei maps, Huawei appgallery app store, etc. in order to attract more developers to access Huawei HMS services and upload them to the app Gallery app store.
According to the current official plan of Huawei, Huawei will not only invest up to 3 billion yuan to develop and support the Kunpeng industry ecology, but also invite national enterprises to build the Kunpeng computer industry ecology. As the safest and most reliable software and hardware development platform of Huawei at present, Kunpeng cloud of Huawei not only adopts self-developed Kunpeng processor as the core, but also takes the lead in the development of computing industry system in the era of diversified computing, providing powerful computing support for cloud computing, big data, Internet of things, artificial intelligence, edge computing, etc Kunpeng ecology is an industry wide platform that Huawei is striving to build.
4.3.3 Huaweis self-developed Hongmeng OS is expected to open all product lines
Its not difficult to develop a new operating system, but its difficult to gather many developers to develop apps for it to form an ecosystem. The tizen operating system developed by Samsung has not been widely recognized in the market, and can only support a small number of applications. Therefore, if Huawei uses the new system, how to build an application ecosystem in the future will be a challenge. For the mobile application ecology, in April 2019, Huawei launched a product called ark compiler, which is known to bring a revolutionary breakthrough to Android system. Ark compiler can help developers realize the rapid migration of android app to China as a tool for independent operating system, making Huaweis independent operating system become the second Android. In terms of communication base station system, because communication equipment does not need complex software ecology, generally all communication equipment manufacturers have the ability to develop based on open source system Linux. Huawei has its own VRP (versatile routing platform), which is a general routing platform operating system platform. Source: Yang Bin, editor in charge of wall street news_ NF4368
For the mobile application ecology, in April 2019, Huawei launched a product called ark compiler, which is known to bring a revolutionary breakthrough to Android system. Ark compiler can help developers realize the rapid migration of android app to China as a tool for independent operating system, making Huaweis independent operating system become the second Android.