Attention! The consumer market with a total scale expected to reach 45 trillion is recovering

category:Finance
 Attention! The consumer market with a total scale expected to reach 45 trillion is recovering


(the chart is from the official website of the National Bureau of Statistics)

Comprehensive improvement of consumption data

Among the optional consumer categories, the growth rate of cosmetics has changed from negative to positive, and the growth rate of gold, silver, jewelry and clothing categories has improved significantly month on month. In April, cosmetics experienced a year-on-year growth of + 3.5% (from - 11.6% in March), with a significant recovery from a negative to a positive growth rate; gold and silver jewelry / clothing, shoes, hats and needle textiles experienced a year-on-year growth of - 12.1% / - 18.5%, with a sharp decrease of 18.0/16.3%, showing a significant improvement on a month on month basis.

The gradual recovery of offline passenger flow and the continuous improvement of return to work rate are expected to drive the sales volume of gold and silver jewelry enterprises to recover gradually.

Sales of automobile, building materials, furniture, home appliances and other categories are divided into + 0% year on year/- 5.8%/ - 5.4%/ - 8.5% , respectively in March+ 18.1/ + 8.1/ + 17.3/ + twenty-one point two Percentage, all of them recovered significantly. Sales of automobile and real estate related industries have improved, mainly due to the loosening of restrictions on purchase of automobiles and real estate under the encouragement of policies, and the recovery of sales of related categories of real estate cycle, such as furniture and home appliances.

In the future, with the gradual recovery of peoples social demand and the continuous introduction of policy incentives such as consumption vouchers, it is expected that the growth rate of optional consumer categories will continue to recover.

In April, catering revenue decreased by 31.1% year-on-year, and the growth rate in March was 15.7 percentage points, improving. The passenger flow of offline shopping malls recovered in April, but there is still a large gap compared with the level before the epidemic. With the gradual recovery of passenger flow in the future, it is expected that the revenue of catering industry will gradually recover. According to the securities times, since May, the recovery rate of Beijing passenger flow represented by physical businesses such as shopping centers has reached 50%, and the passenger flow of some shopping centers has nearly doubled compared with last month.

Consumption is expected to reach 45 trillion yuan this year

Wei Jianguo, former Vice Minister of the Ministry of Commerce, said in an interview recently that Chinas consumption is expected to reach 45 trillion yuan (RMB, the same below) this year, becoming the worlds largest market.

In Wei Jianguos view, if China can seize the opportunity brought by the emergence of new formats and models, such as live broadcast with goods, it will not only boost consumption growth, but also promote consumption upgrading and achieve high-quality development. He predicted that the trend of Chinas foreign trade in 2020 would be low before and high after: it would continue to recover in the second quarter, be relatively high in the third quarter, and achieve tail lifting in the fourth quarter.

According to the calculation of Kaiyuan securities, the growth rate of online retail sales of physical goods has recovered rapidly, and its proportion in social zero has continued to rise. In April, the online retail sales of physical goods reached 721.5 billion yuan (year-on-year)+ 17.1% uff09, growth in March+ ten point eight Percentage points; in the online retail sales of physical goods, food and use goods increased respectively 36.7% and 12.4% , decrease in clothing 12% u3002 The epidemic has an obvious impact on the residents out going and offline consumption. Part of the consumption demand has been transferred to the online market, which has driven the online channel retail growth to recover quickly.

Wei Jianguo therefore concluded that e-commerce is targeting potential consumers such as the elderly, who need to continue to develop; all regions are encouraging more consumption policies, and new consumption will continue to grow rapidly, and lead the global consumer market. Based on these favorable conditions, Chinas total retail sales of social consumer goods are expected to grow from about 40 trillion yuan last year to 45 trillion yuan, surpassing the United States as the worlds largest market.

In addition, in April, loans from the household sector increased by 666.9 billion yuan, of which short-term loans from residents increased by 228 billion yuan, double the increase of 109.3 billion yuan in the same period last year by 118.7 billion yuan. Judging from the loan data, people have a strong desire for consumption.

Benefit from A-share consumption

MSCI announced the results of the review at the end of half a year. Chinas A-share onshore index increased by 61 stocks, excluding 18 stocks. Among them, food and beverage stocks such as Sanquan food, Qiaqia food and well food were included in the MSCI index.

Since the beginning of the year, the growth of wind consumer sector has also been stronger than that of the market.

Looking forward to the future, many institutions believe that the performance of the consumer sector will continue to improve, and the market performance will be better.

According to Zhongyuan Securities Research Report, in the fourth quarter of 2019, the performance indicators of various consumer sectors have deteriorated. The subsequent deep decline in the first quarter of 2020 is not only affected by the epidemic, but also the continuous weakening of fundamentals in the fourth quarter of last year. The weakening of the consumer sector fundamentals is a reflection of the year-on-year growth of social retail consumption. However, some consumption sectors have strong toughness in terms of consumption attributes. Through the fourth quarter and the first quarters performance, the probability of performance recovery in the second half of the year is high, including supermarkets and convenience stores, tourism and leisure, hotels, white electricity, liquor and beer sectors.

According to YueKai securities, at present, China has sufficient response space, and its monetary policy is more flexible and appropriate: the stable monetary policy is more flexible and appropriate. In April and may, monetary policy targeted at small and medium-sized banks. Taking 2008 as an example, the actual effect of monetary policy after three months appears in CPI and social zero data. Therefore, taking monetary easing as the starting point, breaking the ice for consumption, speeding up enterprise revenue and boosting secondary market confidence are expected to reappear this year.

Guotai Junan Securities research report pointed out that from the macro level, consumption has risen to the height of national strategy, becoming the stabilizer and ballast stone to maintain the stable operation of the economy. Looking forward to the future, facing more uncertain external environment and gradual adjustment of economic structure, the power of domestic demand will be fully demonstrated! This will be the most core driver of economic growth in the coming decades!

The economy has entered a stable period, consumption has entered the second half, and the two major consumption directions in the future can be summarized as: supply depends on efficiency, demand depends on dividend. From the perspective of the supply side, the growth of the whole consumption sector has entered the stage of extrusion growth. The competition among enterprises is more reflected in the competition between efficiency, which is also reflected in the competition among the organizational ability, management ability, team, mechanism and culture of enterprises. From this point of view, investors should focus on the allocation of leading enterprises, leading enterprises can make full use of their competitive advantages, by squeezing the market share of small and medium-sized enterprises to obtain growth. This is reflected in the capital market in the past few years, the consumption of white horse stocks is unique! From the demand side, although the overall macroeconomic growth slows down, consumption upgrading continues, and many industries still have large dividend space. For example, the demographic dividend of the third and fourth tier cities continues. These cities have a large population base, fast income growth, and high marginal consumption tendency, most of which are in the stage of mass consumption and brand consumption, including snacks, cosmetics, tax-free, sports Leisure and entertainment, outdoor sports and other subdivisions bring huge development space. Source: Wind Information Editor: Yang bin_nf4368

The economy has entered a stable period, consumption has entered the second half, and the two major consumption directions in the future can be summarized as: supply depends on efficiency, demand depends on dividend. From the perspective of the supply side, the growth of the whole consumption sector has entered the stage of extrusion growth. The competition among enterprises is more reflected in the competition between efficiency, which is also reflected in the competition among the organizational ability, management ability, team, mechanism and culture of enterprises. From this point of view, investors should focus on the allocation of leading enterprises, leading enterprises can make full use of their competitive advantages, by squeezing the market share of small and medium-sized enterprises to obtain growth. This is reflected in the capital market in the past few years, the consumption of white horse stocks is unique!

From the demand side, although the overall macroeconomic growth slows down, consumption upgrading continues, and many industries still have large dividend space. For example, the demographic dividend of the third and fourth tier cities continues. These cities have a large population base, fast income growth, and high marginal consumption tendency, most of which are in the stage of mass consumption and brand consumption, including snacks, cosmetics, tax-free, sports Leisure and entertainment, outdoor sports and other subdivisions bring huge development space.