Guangdong official report explains in detail the risks of real estate development trend

category:Finance
 Guangdong official report explains in detail the risks of real estate development trend


According to the report, in 2018, there were 8721 real estate development and operation enterprises in Guangdong Province, an increase of 2140 over 2013, the largest increase in the number of enterprises in the previous census, with an average annual increase of 428. At the end of 2018, the assets of real estate enterprises in the province totaled 11171.601 billion yuan, an increase of 169.6% over the end of 2013, with an average annual growth rate of 21.9%.

Photo source: Research on the scale, structure and benefit of Guangdong real estate development

At the same time of rising assets, the profit margin of the enterprise is increasing. Total profit of Guangdong real estate development enterprises in 2018 three thousand four hundred and sixty-one point eight four Billion yuan, 2013 two point three seven Times, annual growth 18.9% ; the average profit margin (total profit / operating income) is 23.4% , up from 2013, 2008 and 2004 respectively Three point five Seven and fourteen point seven Percentage points.

The development of real estate industry also broadens employment channels and increases local financial resources. Data shows that in 2013, the number of real estate employees in Guangdong Province was 867700, accounting for 1.4% of the total; in 2018, the number of real estate employees in Guangdong increased by nearly 600000, reaching 1414700, accounting for 0.8% of the total. The rapid development of real estate not only creates a lot of employment opportunities, but also makes a great contribution to the local finance. In 2018, Guangdongs real estate tax revenue reached 340630 million yuan, accounting for 14.4% of the tax revenue.

Of course, in this process, there are many problems that need attention. One of them is that the land purchase cost is rising rapidly, and the pressure of house price rising is increasing. In terms of the composition of development investment, in 2013, Guangdong real estate development enterprises completed the investment of 98.177 billion yuan of land acquisition cost, accounting for 15.1% of the investment; in 2018, the land acquisition cost was 492.164 billion yuan, accounting for 34.1% of the completed investment. The continuous rise of land price promotes the rise of housing price, which brings great pressure on the regulation of housing price.

Zhang Dawei, chief market analyst of Zhongyuan Real estate, analyzed first finance and economics that the rapid rise of land price is an important factor in the rise of house price. Of course, in addition to land price, there are other factors that also affect the price rise, such as money supply, capital cost, etc.

According to the statistics of the peoples Bank of China, in 2018, Guangdongs real estate loan balance totaled 5338.073 billion yuan, accounting for 36.8% of all loans in the banking industry.

The report analyzes that, on the one hand, the excessive concentration of credit funds in the real estate industry will seriously affect the stable operation of the bank and may bring hidden dangers to the social stability in case of a sharp decline in house prices; on the other hand, in the case of limited credit resources, the siphon effect of the real estate industry will cause crowding out effects on small and micro enterprises, advanced manufacturing industries, scientific and technological enterprises, etc. Moreover, under the expectation of only rising but not falling of house prices, speculation is more likely to breed, which will make funds continue to flow to the real estate market from the real to the virtual, which is undoubtedly not conducive to the transformation of new and old momentum and supply side structural reform.

Banks are also enterprises. From the perspective of enterprise management, they are more willing to support large-scale enterprises with strong anti risk ability. A person from the Credit Department of a joint-stock bank in Guangdong told reporters that real estate enterprises have large scale, standardized finance and strong ability to resist risks, while many small and medium-sized enterprises have relatively large risks and shorter enterprise life span.

In view of the long-term mechanism of real estate, the report also puts forward some suggestions, including establishing and improving laws and regulations to ensure the steady progress of real estate tax collection. On the one hand, under the premise of giving full play to the role of real estate tax, we should embody the fairness of tax revenue, guarantee the governments tax revenue and expand the tax base. In the specific collection, the commercial housing, office building, commercial and business housing in the city should be included in the scope of tax collection; on the other hand, the tax system structure should be improved to realize the function of tax regulating income distribution. By properly reducing the taxes in the development and transaction links, we will focus on increasing the taxes in the holding link, and reform the real estate tax system. Secondly, the report suggests that we should improve the land supply and develop a multi supply model with reasonable structure. We should strengthen the supervision of land supply, explore the differentiated land supply mode, and make the optimization of land supply become the starting point of long-term mechanism construction of real estate. In addition, the report also suggests that we should reform the financial system, reduce the governments dependence on land, optimize the allocation of resources and promote the equalization of resources. Source: Wang Xiaowu, editor in charge of the first financial network_ NF

In view of the long-term mechanism of real estate, the report also puts forward some suggestions, including establishing and improving laws and regulations to ensure the steady progress of real estate tax collection. On the one hand, under the premise of giving full play to the role of real estate tax, we should embody the fairness of tax revenue, guarantee the governments tax revenue and expand the tax base. In the specific collection, the commercial housing, office building, commercial and business housing in the city should be included in the scope of tax collection; on the other hand, the tax system structure should be improved to realize the function of tax regulating income distribution. By properly reducing the taxes in the development and transaction links, we will focus on increasing the taxes in the holding link, and reform the real estate tax system.

Secondly, the report suggests that we should improve the land supply and develop a multi supply model with reasonable structure. We should strengthen the supervision of land supply, explore the differentiated land supply mode, and make the optimization of land supply become the starting point of long-term mechanism construction of real estate. In addition, the report also suggests that we should reform the financial system, reduce the governments dependence on land, optimize the allocation of resources and promote the equalization of resources.