With the continuous improvement of 5g technical standards, in March 2017, 3GPP adopted 5g acceleration proposal, namely, completed in December 2017, frozen non independent 5g new air port standard in March 2018, completed in June 2018, and frozen independent 5g new air port standard in September 2018. On June 6, 2019, the Ministry of industry and information technology issued 5g commercial license to China Telecom, China Mobile, China Unicom and China Radio and television, which means that China officially entered the first year of 5g commercial. In 2020, the national 5g construction layout will be accelerated, and the development of information technology will provide a technical basis for live broadcasting, which can further promote the development of live broadcasting industry.
Figure 1: 5g development in 2013-2020
Figure 2: 5g key technology, architecture system and industrial chain
Mobile Internet traffic dividend decays, entering the era of stock competition. On the one hand, the average monthly Mau size of China Mobile Internet in 1q20 has reached 1.15 billion people, with a year-on-year growth rate continuing to decline; on the other hand, the average monthly daily use time has reached 7.2 hours in March 2020, and we expect that the average daily use time also has a ceiling. In the face of the decline of mobile Internet traffic red profit, the competition of each app for traffic has entered the era of stock competition.
At the same time, more and more users pay attention to live content consumption for a long time. Currently, mobile social networking (including instant messaging, microblogging, community dating, etc.), pan Entertainment (including short video, online video, mobile games, mobile music, digital reading, etc.) account for one third of the total use time of mobile Internet respectively, occupying the majority of users attention.
Figure 4: average monthly and daily usage time of users in the whole network
Figure 5: proportion of total use time of China Mobile Internet by industry (December 2018)
Live e-commerce: a rising consumption scene, which has become the industry standard
Compared with the traditional e-commerce, the direct broadcast e-commerce realizes the improvement of core efficiency indexes such as user stickiness and conversion rate. The difference between live e-commerce and traditional e-commerce is that they reshape the shopping decision chain. The consumption decision-making process of traditional e-commerce is spontaneous demand - active search - screening comparison - order, while the decision-making process of live e-commerce is watching recommendation - planting grass - order. As an important application scenario of Internet red economy, live e-commerce not only provides the flow realization path for the anchor and KOL talent, but also significantly improves the core efficiency indicators such as e-commerce conversion rate.
According to the third-party data such as quest mobile, because it is more in line with shopping scenes such as strolling, the embedding of live broadcast effectively promotes the stay time of users in e-commerce platform, and stimulates consumers potential, unplanned and impulsive consumption demand. Moreover, because the number of users watching exceeds 150% year-on-year, the number of users watching more than one hour a day increases 40% year-on-year, and the conversion rate of users entering the store exceeds 65% (2018), the transformation efficiency is higher than the traditional e-commerce mode. In recent years, the top e-commerce platforms and content platforms have increased investment to seize the growth dividend of live e-commerce.
Figure 6: rapid growth of live e-commerce industry
Figure 7: scale of online live broadcast users
Figure 8: comparison between live e-commerce and traditional e-commerce modes and efficiency
Tiktok game player: every player rushing into the game, Taobao, jitter, and Kwai to occupy the top three seats.
Taobao, tiktok and Kwai Ju occupy three of the market share. Tiktok Kwais competition is based on the traditional competitive e-commerce platform. Taobaos live penetration and loyal user penetration are the leading providers of the live broadcast business. Tmall, Jingdong and many other companies are two or three and four places. Overall, tiktok, Taobao, jitter, and Kwai live providers are the top three industries in the world.
Figure 9: market share of live broadcasting platform
Figure 10: operation and investment of main live e-commerce platforms
At the end of 2019, the number of daily average display commodities of Taobao live broadcast increased by 190% year on year, covering almost all industries and most commodity types of Taobao tmall. With the development of 5g technology and the continuous improvement of the penetration rate of live broadcasting, the increasing variety and content of live broadcasting will become the general trend, all things can be broadcast era is coming.
The rapid rise of business self broadcast may drive the development of live broadcast generation operation industry. From the perspective of the start-up subject, business self broadcasting is rising rapidly. According to the white paper of business live broadcasting in 2020 released by Taobao list, in 2019, business self broadcasting on Taobao platform accounts for 90% of all live broadcasting. From the perspective of the mode, the main modes of business self broadcast include the delivery of goods by the anchor, participation in PGC column, self built live broadcast team, live broadcast agent operation, etc., in which the live broadcast agent operator, as the service link of the live broadcast industry chain, will benefit from the vigorous development of business live broadcast and rise rapidly.
Head KOL traffic advantage is stable, with strong non replicability. At present, the head anchor has formed a strong traffic advantage barrier and operation system in the market, so the creation of the head anchor has a certain degree of non replicability. Although in recent years, the cases of stars and entrepreneurs entering the live broadcast are common, but these celebrities can get a large amount of traffic in the early stage of live broadcast, part of which is based on their celebrity effect, consumers curiosity hunting psychology and platform traffic support. In the later stage, whether celebrities can continue to create good performance still needs to test their core capabilities such as selection, price, supply chain, etc., and the sustainability remains to be observed.