Technical bull market to the medium and long term can do this!

category:Finance
 Technical bull market to the medium and long term can do this!


Compared with the total economic output in the first quarter, the recovery of the economy in March deserves more attention. With the spread of the epidemic basically blocked and the resumption of work and production accelerated, the macro-economic data in March improved significantly, and the year-on-year decline in investment, consumption and industrial added value significantly narrowed. Among them, the industrial added value and infrastructure investment increased by more than 10 percentage points on a year-on-year basis, the real estate investment on a year-on-year basis has turned from negative to positive, and the domestic resumption of production has achieved phased results. In the future, the global epidemic is on the mend and the domestic economy is close to normal operation. We tend to think that the bottom of domestic economy has appeared, corresponding to the stock market, the bottom of A-share performance in the first quarter has been found.

Overseas epidemic prevention and control restrict domestic economic recovery

Recently, some countries are considering restarting their economy. The French Prime Minister said that he would announce the details of the lifting of the blockade within two weeks. The Italian epidemic prevention and control law allows large enterprises to resume their work in recent days. The United States also announced the guidelines for the phased restart of the U.S. economy. However, according to trumps three-stage guideline for states to restart their economy, the first stage continues to take measures such as telecommuting, returning to work in stages, reducing unnecessary travel, and maintaining social distance as much as possible, similar to the domestic plan for returning to work and production in early February. At present, the epidemic data curve of many countries is flattened, but the newly confirmed cases are still high. In this case, even if we promote the resumption of work, the strength is very weak, and the economic recovery is very slow. In addition, the outbreak in India, Russia, Africa and other countries and regions has accelerated, and the global situation is still not optimistic.

The IMF expects negative growth in the global economy in 2020. Under the impact of overseas epidemic, the weakness of foreign demand is expected to restrict the strength of domestic economic recovery. According to the forecast of IMF, Chinas economic growth in 2020 is better than that of the world, but it also reduces the growth rate of Chinas economy by 4.8 percentage points. In terms of A-share, the weak expectation of performance recovery will also restrict the upward space of A-share.

Marked by the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee on March 27, domestic stimulus policies were further intensified. The central bank lowered the reserve rate for excess deposits again 12 years later, and determined to issue a number of special local government bonds in advance. On April 17, the central government held a meeting of the political bureau again. Its setting on the impact of the epidemic on the economy was constantly upgrading, and it indicated that the impact of the epidemic should be hedged with greater macro policies. From now on to this years NPC and CPPCC, it may be a time window for intensive preparation and promulgation of macroeconomic policies. The bottom of domestic policy has been proved. With the strong support of counter cyclical policy, there is limited space for further market exploration.

On the whole, the market will continue to rebound in the short term, benefiting from the favorable policy side. However, the prevention and control of overseas epidemic will still restrict the repair of domestic economy, and further restrict the space for a share to rise. The sustained growth of A-share in the medium and long term is still waiting for the emergence of the inflection point of the global epidemic and the significant repair of the economy. At present, the bottom of domestic policy and performance indicates that the market bottom has also been explored. On the whole, there is limited space for the market to fall further, and medium and long-term funds can find bargains to lay out their bottom positions. Corresponding to the maturity index, the three major stock index futures can be configured. Considering the high discount protection of IC and the high elasticity of subsequent rise, IC is preferred. In addition, based on the judgment of the current market bottom oscillation, we recommend to sell options to enhance returns. For example, we can sell call options with a contract exercise price of 4000 points or put options with an exercise price of 3500 points in Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index in May. (authors unit: Xinda futures) the content of this article is for reference only, according to which the risk of entering the market shall be borne by oneself. Source: responsible editor of futures Daily: Yang bin_nf4368

On the whole, the market will continue to rebound in the short term, benefiting from the favorable policy side. However, the prevention and control of overseas epidemic will still restrict the repair of domestic economy, and further restrict the space for a share to rise. The sustained growth of A-share in the medium and long term is still waiting for the emergence of the inflection point of the global epidemic and the significant repair of the economy. At present, the bottom of domestic policy and performance indicates that the market bottom has also been explored. On the whole, there is limited space for the market to fall further, and medium and long-term funds can find bargains to lay out their bottom positions. Corresponding to the maturity index, the three major stock index futures can be configured. Considering the high discount protection of IC and the high elasticity of subsequent rise, IC is preferred. In addition, based on the judgment of the current market bottom oscillation, we recommend to sell options to enhance returns. For example, we can sell call options with a contract exercise price of 4000 points or put options with an exercise price of 3500 points in Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index in May. (author unit: Xinda futures)