From the low opening of most European markets on Thursday, it can be seen that the short-term volatility of overseas stock market is inevitable, and the joint effect of the decline will have an impact on a shares, and the short-term market hesitates in reason.
Concerns about the economic outlook are not just Mr. market alarmist, as Ben Bernanke, the former chairman of the Federal Reserve, said on March 25. The U.S. economy will have a very sharp recession in the second quarter under the outbreak, but it will be short-lived, and hopefully so, he said. As long as the economic shutdown period does not cause too much damage to labor and enterprises, the U.S. economy is expected to rebound quickly.
A close analysis of Bernankes statement shows that he wants to say that the epidemic will cause a very sharp recession in the US economy in the second quarter, and he can only hope that it will be short-lived. Novel coronavirus pneumonia is a key factor that affects the economy. It further points out that the short term impact on the economy is to control the spread of the new crown pneumonia. If we do not improve public health policies to control the epidemic, monetary and fiscal policies will be difficult to play.
In terms of the current performance of the United States, it seems that the control of the epidemic is not so ideal. Even trump said on March 24 that he wanted to relax the control. Bernankes expectation of short-term impact on the economy may be difficult to achieve.
Ren Zeping, chief economist of Evergrande group, said that in just one month, we have seen four US stock circuit breakers, as well as more monetary easing and fiscal stimulus than during the 2008 financial crisis. In addition to the unlimited QE launch, the Federal Reserve has another $2 trillion in fiscal stimulus. But none of this has stopped the downturn in US stocks.
Because the market still has three major concerns: 1. When can the epidemic be controlled? 2. Will there be unemployment when the economy stops? 3. Can money solve all problems? Renzeping believes that now the politics of the United States is kidnapped by populism and the monetary policy is kidnapped by politics, which is in a very dangerous situation.
Xia Fengfeng, the future star fund manager of private placement paipai.com, told Securities Daily: from the long-term trend of the monthly level, the U.S. stock market has entered a bear market, but the main index of A-share still keeps a bottom rising trend. On the one hand, this is the relative independence of A-share, on the other hand, it is also the recognition of funds in Chinas epidemic resistance and economic recovery. If the U.S. and even the global economy under the impact of the epidemic, there is a greater than expected depression, which will have a serious impact on our export-oriented manufacturing industry, then a share may also be dragged down. Therefore, while focusing on Chinas assets strategically, we should also pay attention to risk prevention and control at the micro level, and grasp industries with relatively certain growth rate.
Xiao Mo, general manager of xuanduo asset management, expressed a similar view to the reporter of Securities Daily. The shock of American stock has an impact on A-share, but with the passage of time, the impact is becoming smaller and smaller. Especially after the outbreak, there will be many stimulus plans to expand domestic demand and consumption. I believe that with the inflow of long-term funds and the early recovery of economic prospects, the A-share market will also stabilize ahead of the world and will not exclude a higher level.
Source: responsible editor of Securities Daily: Yang qian_nf4425