Overseas liquidity hit the dollar bond fund and made a gold pit

category:Finance
 Overseas liquidity hit the dollar bond fund and made a gold pit


Encounter a sell-off

The stock market plummeted, all kinds of assets faced liquidity shock, and Chinese dollar bonds were sold off. The Asian Chinese dollar bond index has fallen more than 6% since March 6.

The net value of QDII bond fund, which mainly invests in overseas US dollar bonds, has been withdrawn. Wind data shows that as of March 23, several funds, such as Huaxia Greater China credit select and southern Global Select bonds, have declined by more than 4% in the past week, and some funds have withdrawn more than 10% of their net value since this year.

Lu Congfan, the fund manager of the fixed income Department of Haifutong fund, believed that the epidemic continued to develop and all kinds of funds were withdrawn from the market, resulting in liquidity shortage and eventually disorderly decline. In this context, the overseas US dollar debt has also been significantly adjusted.

Ma Qiusi, a QDII researcher at Guohai Franklin fund, said that from the valuation point of view, at present, the interest margin of Chinese dollar bonds, especially high-yield bonds, has risen by 1000 basis points compared with the lower level at the beginning of the year, which is about 1630 at present. The average two-year US dollar bond yield reached 17%, which is close to the level of the European debt crisis in 2011, but this adjustment will not continue. First, in 2011, the main body of US dollar bond issuance was more difficult to issue bonds in China, mainly relying on overseas bond issuance financing. At present, the main financing channels of the US dollar bond issuers are in China, and the proportion of foreign currency debt is only 20% on average. At present, the domestic financing conditions are good, the monetary policy is active, and the liquidity is loose. Second, at present, 70% of the investors in the Chinese dollar bond market are local investors and 30% are overseas investors. A strong local base will form a certain support for the market.

Falling out of value depression as a whole

According to Matus, the recent adjustment of the US dollar bond market provides a good buying opportunity. From the perspective of yield level, the current yield of one-year US dollar bonds is double-digit, while the yield of three-year bonds issued by the same issuer in China is only 3% - 4%. The yield of buying US dollar bonds due within one year or one-year at the current time point will be very considerable. From the perspective of risk level, most of the issuers of overseas high-yield bonds put the refinancing demand one to two months ahead of this year, and the remaining demand only accounts for 15% - 20%. The refinancing risk is not large. The issuer can repay the debt by means of bank loan or dividend, and the overall default risk will not be great. Under the premise of controlling credit risk, the return of holding maturity strategy is more definite.

Lu Congfan said that overseas US dollar debt as a whole fell to a value depression, with many varieties being wrongly killed. However, as an institutional investor, when copying the bottom, it is necessary to carefully screen the target and judge the extent to which its fundamentals have been affected. If the fundamentals change greatly, some problems may be encountered later. If the change of fundamentals is controllable, the safety margin of investment will be higher.

Lu Congfan believes that at present, domestic enterprises are returning to work in an orderly manner, economic activities are gradually recovering, and policy support is strong. The certainty of Chinese dollar debt is higher than that of overseas dollar debt. As for the inflection point of the rebound, it is difficult to predict the specific market bottom. It can only be said that many of the current US dollar debt targets are already in the range of worthy layout in the long run. The overnight borrowing cost of US dollars can be used as an indicator. Regarding the investment of USD bond fund, Mr. Ma Qiusi thinks that the short-term USD bond market rate has reached the bottom. This year, the exchange rate fluctuation will be kept in a reasonable range. Under the condition of meeting their own risk tolerance, investors holding US dollars can directly apply for us dollar shares. Lu Congfan said that as a QDII fund, the net value of the US dollar bond fund will be announced one day later, and the speed of fund receipt will be later than that of the general fund. It is better for investors to hold in the medium and long term and avoid short-term trading. Investors can choose their investment shares according to their own currencies. Compared with the general bond base, the RMB share of the dollar bond base is more optimistic at this stage. Source: responsible editor of Securities Times: Ren Hui ufe63 nbj9607

Lu Congfan believes that at present, domestic enterprises are returning to work in an orderly manner, economic activities are gradually recovering, and policy support is strong. The certainty of Chinese dollar debt is higher than that of overseas dollar debt. As for the inflection point of the rebound, it is difficult to predict the specific market bottom. It can only be said that many of the current US dollar debt targets are already in the range of worthy layout in the long run. The overnight borrowing cost of US dollars can be used as an indicator.

Regarding the investment of USD bond fund, Mr. Ma Qiusi thinks that the short-term USD bond market rate has reached the bottom. This year, the exchange rate fluctuation will be kept in a reasonable range. Under the condition of meeting their own risk tolerance, investors holding US dollars can directly apply for us dollar shares.

Lu Congfan said that as a QDII fund, the net value of the US dollar bond fund will be announced one day later, and the speed of fund receipt will be later than that of the general fund. It is better for investors to hold in the medium and long term and avoid short-term trading. Investors can choose their investment shares according to their own currencies. Compared with the general bond base, the RMB share of the dollar bond base is more optimistic at this stage.