Will there be retaliatory tourism after the epidemic? 11000 tourism enterprises have closed down

category:Finance
 Will there be retaliatory tourism after the epidemic? 11000 tourism enterprises have closed down


Monthly K-line chart of tuniu since its listing

If the time is prolonged, it will fall to US $1.02 from US $24.99 at the beginning of listing, with a maximum decline of more than 95.9%, and the total market value will evaporate nearly US $3 billion (about 20.85 billion yuan).

Before the arrival of the Spring Festival in 2020, tuniu hopes to make a turnaround in the Golden Week of spring festival tourism. Tuniu has issued a report predicting that the number of tourists in the seven days of the golden week in 2020 will reach about 450 million.

However, an epidemic began in the Spring Festival, which immediately brought the national tourism industry into a frozen state.

For the tourism industry, it means a complete stop. The revenue of the 7 days of Spring Festival and the whole February is almost zero.

In 2014, tuniu took advantage of the upsurge of Chinas online tourism (OTA) and successfully went to the United States for listing. At the beginning of its listing, the total market value of tuniu once soared to 21.7 billion yuan.

However, after landing in the capital market, tuniu has not been able to find a stable profit model, and has not yet achieved real profit. It has lost six years in listing, with a total loss of 5.62 billion yuan.

In case of house leakage, tuniu, which suffered from continuous rain at night and continuous loss, once again encountered the black swan incident. The sudden stop and massive refund of travel orders are the biggest test for all online travel platforms, including tuniu.

According to Yu Dunde, founder, chairman and CEO of Touniu travel network, from January 21 to February 2, the number of Touniu customer service calls increased by more than 10 times, most of which were related to ticket refund.

As we all know, the tourism industry has a complex industrial chain. The tickets and hotel fees prepaid by tourists will be paid to the scenic spots and hotels in advance. However, when the online travel platforms such as dangtuniu receive the refund demand, they need to contact the intermediate suppliers and feed back to the hotels and scenic spots. However, not all hotels and scenic spots are willing to refund. The Refund Scheme for outbound travel is the most complicated.

Once it fails to reach an agreement with the scenic spot and the hotel, and advances various refunds to users in advance, the online tourism platform may face huge losses.

It is worth mentioning that online tourism platform needs to advance funds (covering all business lines such as air tickets, hotels, tickets, holidays, etc.) in the face of ticket refunding. When the order of ticket refunding is huge, it will undoubtedly test the capital chain of the platform.

In the face of massive cancellation of orders, tuniu is also facing greater pressure to advance funds. According to Yu Dunde, if there is sufficient cash flow, it will be easier to deal with refunds and return cash to consumers as much as possible; however, some enterprises only provide cash for rescheduling; in addition, there will be a situation of using tourist vouchers to offset cash.

According to media reports, some consumers reported on the complaint platform that when canceling overseas travel orders, tuniu did not return the cash in full, but compensated 4318 yuan equivalent of tuniu travel voucher.

11000 tourism enterprises closed down! Tourism will lose 540 billion

This outbreak is really the biggest challenge the company has faced since its establishment, Yu told the daily economic news.

And that may be what all people in the tourism industry feel.

Because the annual Spring Festival Golden Week is too important for the tourism industry. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, since 2016, the tourism revenue of 7 days of the Spring Festival has accounted for about 9% of the total revenue of the whole year.

In addition, in 2016-2018, the per capita tourism expenditure in the golden week of the Spring Festival was about 1200 yuan, far higher than the level of 800 yuan for the National Day holiday. It can be seen that the loss of Spring Festival Golden Week is an unbearable burden for Chinas tourism industry.

On the eve of the Spring Festival in 2020, according to the prediction of the number of orders, the number of tourists in the golden week of the Spring Festival in 2020 will reach 450 million. According to the consumption amount of 1200 yuan per capita, the revenue of the tourism industry in the Spring Festival in 2020 will reach 540 billion yuan.

However, the outbreak of Chinas epidemic happened at the Spring Festival, which led to the complete suspension of the tourism industry, with an expected revenue of 540 billion yuan almost zero.

Wei Xiaoan, chief expert of the world tourism cities Federation, said that in 2019, Chinas total tourism revenue is 6.5 trillion yuan. According to this estimate, the average stagnant day will cost the tourism industry 17.8 billion yuan, which may not be recovered in a short time.

According to the Research Report of iResearch, the top four industries most affected by the epidemic are: outbound tourism, domestic tourism, business travel, catering industry.

Data source: iResearch

With the spread of overseas epidemic, every link of outbound tourism and domestic tourism has been severely damaged.

It is worth mentioning that, with the rapid development of Chinas tourism industry in the past decade, both tourism enterprises and employees have shown explosive growth. According to the data of enterprise survey professional edition, the growth reached a peak in 2019, with more than 330000 new registrations and 2.08 million national tourism enterprises.

In addition, according to the notice of the 13th five year plan for the development of tourism talents issued by the National Tourism Administration, the plan points out that by 2020, the number of direct employment in the tourism industry has increased from 27.98 million at the end of the 12th Five Year Plan to 33 million.

It means that if the tourism industry fails to recover for a long time after a comprehensive stop, it will directly affect the employment of 33 million people and the life and death of 2.08 million enterprises.

According to the data of enterprise investigation professional edition, affected by the epidemic situation, as of March 25, there have been 11268 tourism enterprises cancelled or revoked in 2020.

Will there be a retaliatory tour?

The good news is that Chinas epidemic is gradually fading, and social production and living order have been fully restored. The temporarily delayed travel plan for the spring festival may also come.

According to the official data of Feizhu, from March 17 to 23, the booking volume of train tickets and scenic spots during the Qingming holiday increased by more than 100% month on month compared with that a week ago. Most of the orders were mainly for provincial tours, and the hotel booking volume also increased by about 30% month on month.

However, it may take some time for Chinas tourism industry to get out of the haze of the epidemic.

From the time axis, the SARS epidemic started in December 2002, gradually spread in the first quarter of 2003, peaked in the second quarter, and was controlled in June, and basically ended after the third quarter.

In 2003, both the number of tourists and the income of tourism decreased. The impact on the tourism industry almost affected every link, and the impact was very obvious.

Specifically, in 2003, the number of domestic tourists was 870 million, down 0.9% year-on-year. The annual tourism revenue was only 344.23 billion yuan, and the year-on-year growth rate dropped to - 11.2%, which was the only negative growth in 1995-2019.

However, the following year (2004) saw a retaliatory rebound in Chinas tourism market, with domestic tourism revenue surging by 36.8% year on year, and the number of tourists also rising by 26.7% year on year, setting a record growth rate for both sides. It can be seen that, in the face of the national epidemic, the impact on the tourism industry may last for more than half a year. Therefore, it can be estimated that in the golden week of May Day in 2020, it may be difficult for the national tourism industry to fully recover. However, in view of the end of the epidemic, the state may introduce policies such as tax reduction and consumption vouchers to stimulate residents consumption. During the golden week of the Mid Autumn Festival and the November 2020, the tourism industry in China will improve substantially, and the business of domestic scenic spots and hotels will return to normal. However, inbound and outbound tourism will not recover in a short time. Extending reading of Guangzhou Development and Reform Commission: the detailed rules for the implementation of the policy of boosting automobile consumption are being worked out. This year, the city will increase the number of passenger cars by 20000 at a time. Will other provinces and cities follow the implementation of the weekend 2.5-day holiday to stimulate consumption? Source: Panorama news editor: Wang Xiaowu NF

However, the following year (2004) saw a retaliatory rebound in Chinas tourism market, with domestic tourism revenue surging by 36.8% year on year, and the number of tourists also rising by 26.7% year on year, setting a record growth rate for both sides.

It can be seen that, in the face of the national epidemic, the impact on the tourism industry may last for more than half a year. Therefore, it can be estimated that in the golden week of May Day in 2020, it may be difficult for the national tourism industry to fully recover.

However, in view of the end of the epidemic, the state may introduce policies such as tax reduction and consumption vouchers to stimulate residents consumption. During the golden week of the Mid Autumn Festival and the November 2020, the tourism industry in China will improve substantially, and the business of domestic scenic spots and hotels will return to normal. However, inbound and outbound tourism will not recover in a short time.