Both futures and stocks soared. The Federal Reserve printed money to open the gold bull market?

 Both futures and stocks soared. The Federal Reserve printed money to open the gold bull market?

On March 24, the main gold contracts of the previous period started trading directly. Then it fluctuated slightly and finally closed at 358.46 yuan / g, up 5.69%.

Gold supply or shortage

According to the latest report of Xinbao financial news on Tuesday afternoon, affected by the epidemic, Switzerlands main gold refineries were shut down due to cooperation in epidemic prevention, which will lead to a serious shortage of gold bars and gold coins in Europe and the United States.

According to foreign media reports, Switzerland is the core area of precious metal refining in the world, while valcambi, PAMP and argor Heraeus are all located in Ticino in the south of Switzerland. Due to local requirements to suspend production, the three refineries have been shut down. In this case, many precious metal retailers are facing the problem of supply shortage or shipment delay of more than 15 days.

The report also pointed out that investors in Europe and the United States have purchased a large number of gold bars, silver bars and gold coins in the past two weeks. However, due to the shutdown of the three major gold refineries, the current retail supply of gold bars and gold coins has been unable to meet the market demand. It is worth noting that in addition to investors, many European countries have begun to attach importance to gold reserves in the past two years.

Will central banks restart the gold purchase plan in 2020

According to reports, the central banks gold purchase in 2019 was 650.3 tons, the second highest level in nearly half a century, slightly lower than the 656.2 tons recorded in 2018. (2018 is the year when the central banks annual net gold purchase volume is the largest since the annuity standard system was abolished in 1971).

From December 2018 to the end of September 2019, the peoples Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for 10 consecutive months, with a total of 3.4 million ounces (about 105.75 tons) of gold. In 2020, the gold reserve of the Central Bank of China was 62.64 million ounces at the end of February, the same as that at the end of January.

In addition to China, the central banks of Russia, India, Turkey and other emerging market countries increased their gold reserves significantly. According to the analysis of the industry, the main reason is that the financial hegemony of the United States has aroused the high vigilance of the emerging market countries, so as to implement the de dollarization in the foreign exchange reserves, and many countries have replaced some US dollar assets with gold. Yi Gang, governor of the peoples Bank of China, once said that the central banks gold reserve increase is a rebalancing of international reserves from a strategic perspective and a concrete embodiment of the central banks multi reserve strategy.

According to the latest data of the World Gold Association on March 10, as of January 2020, the global gold reserves totaled 34735.73 tons. In January 2020, central banks around the world purchased 21.5 tons of gold (only 1 ton or more), a 57% decrease compared with the same period last year. Industry insiders pointed out that although the central banks purchase volume in the near future may be lower than expected in the previous two years, global central banks are still net buyers of gold.

The main logic of the increase in central banks holdings of gold in 2019 is: geopolitical turmoil and extremely loose monetary policy. This year, two factors will also be an important support for the gold rush. Especially in a negative interest rate environment, the central bank is looking for gold to balance some risks. The expanding risk of economic recession under the spread of the epidemic also makes gold a haven.

There is a new situation of unlimited QE of the Federal Reserve. Whether central banks have further increase in their holdings needs to be verified.

Has the general direction of golds rise been basically established?

On Monday, March 23, the Federal Reserve launched another stimulus measure to stimulate gold prices to soar, the biggest increase in 11 years. Analysts pointed out that with the short supply of gold bars and the slowing down of mining business, the price of gold is likely to rebound to a new high soon.

Goldseek.coms president and chief executive said he would not be shocked by the price of gold at $1700 an ounce, rising to $2000 or more in the second quarter.

But there is also the opposite view. ABN AMRO recently said that it expects the global financial market to continue to be in a safe haven mode in the next few weeks or even months. The dollar will strengthen and the gold price will weaken. The bank expects gold prices to fall to $1300 an ounce in the second quarter.

To see more, we should analyze the problem from the abuse of US dollar and the risk aversion of gold.

According to the team of qising metals of Anxin, Gold: nirvana, considering that the worry of liquidity crisis is gradually dispelled, the general direction of golds rise has been basically established, once the real interest rate falls, gold will usher in a big opportunity.

According to CICC, gold stocks have also fallen sharply with the market in recent days. The main reason is that gold stocks have the properties of both stocks and gold. When the market panics and falls, gold stocks show more stock properties. This fall also repeats the historical track of the trend of gold stocks during the previous panicky downward periods. But experience has proved that after market sentiment recovers, the gold stocks killed by mistake will also rebound rapidly.

Extended reading of epic trading limit: U.S. stocks soared 11% and $6 trillion in rescue in transit. U.S. stocks soared: Dow closed up over 11%, the largest single day increase since 1933. G7 finance ministers joint statement: commitment to protect global trade and investment. Source: Wind Information Editor: Yang qian_nf4425