Has the Federal Reserve returned to the 2700 stock market with unlimited water release?

category:Finance
 Has the Federal Reserve returned to the 2700 stock market with unlimited water release?


More than 3200 stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen rose in popularity and gold stocks rose sharply

Not only a shares, in the context of the rescue of central banks, on March 24, the Asia Pacific stock market closed up sharply, the South Korean composite index rose 8.6%, to 1609.97, the largest increase since November 2008; the Nikkei 225 index closed up 7.13%, to 18092.35, the largest increase since mid February 2016; the asx200 index in Australia rose 4.17%, to 4735.7; the nzx50 index in New Zealand rose 7.18%, to 9 The 109.15 point.

Looking back to China, by the end of the trading day, the three major stock indexes of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets had all gained more than 2%, 3261 stocks in the two markets rose, and 489 stocks fell. Among them, 88 stocks rose and 14 stocks fell.

Anti falling consumer stocks also showed performance, with the concept of beer changing and rising. Tsingtao Beer took the lead in trading, while Chongqing beer, Zhujiang Beer, Yanjing Beer, Lanzhou Yellow River and others followed. Net red economic sector strengthened, with Zhongchang data, guifanxiang, Saturday, Tianchuang fashion group trading.

Focal point

The biggest variable: is a recession possible?

Since March, the Federal Reserve has frequently increased monetary easing, including reducing interest rates, expanding asset purchases, expanding liquidity swap lines with other central banks and a series of liquidity tools. How effective are these measures? Zhang Ming, chief economist of Ping An Securities, pointed out that the large-scale monetary easing of the Federal Reserve helps to stabilize the financial market to some extent, but it is difficult to avoid the U.S. economy falling into recession. So far, the measures announced by the Federal Reserve can basically calm the liquidity shortage in the financial market and avoid the panic selling of assets and its negative impact caused by the lack of liquidity. However, the biggest difference between the global financial market turmoil and the subprime crisis in 2008 is that the cause of the turmoil is the impact of the epidemic on the real economy. Therefore, unless the U.S. government can issue strong enough policy measures to curb the spread of pneumonia in the United States, the Feds loose monetary policy alone will not be enough to calm the financial market turmoil.

Whether the U.S. economy is likely to decline is the biggest variable not only for the U.S. stock market, but also for the global capital market.

Can US stocks stop falling next? Li Qilin, chief economist of YueKai securities and President of the Research Institute, commented on the useless easing of the Federal Reserve to open unlimited QE. According to Li Qilin, the liquidity risk that led to the sharp fall of US stocks and the continuous circuit breaker was basically removed. The stage of the market crash has passed. The market will price the risk of economic recession next, which means that the bear market of US stocks and the bull market of US bonds will continue. What the Federal Reserve can do is only to trade time for space. The introduction of this policy is to delay the risk of centralized clearing caused by the sudden stop of the economy and the contraction of internal and external liquidity of enterprises and the residential sector. To truly restore the balance sheet of enterprises and the residential sector, the core is still the anti epidemic.

Wang Qing, chief Macro Analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, believes that the Feds policy will alleviate the impact on the employment market to a certain extent and win time for the fight against the epidemic, but it will not fundamentally reverse the economic downturn. It is afraid that it will be difficult to change the technical recession in the first half of the year in the United States, but the impact of the epidemic on the economy is unlikely to last for a long time. If the epidemic in the United States is basically controlled in the late second quarter, the economy will rebound in the third quarter. In view of the fact that the current economic downturn is not due to endogenous resource mismatch, once the short-term exogenous shocks subside, the restrained consumption, investment and trade activities will recover quickly, and the risk of the macro-economy falling into a sustained recession is small.

Li Qilin pointed out that for domestic asset allocation, it is necessary to pay attention to the impact of falling foreign demand on total demand, as well as the negative transmission of export industry chain pressure on consumption and manufacturing investment.

Focal point

Is there any investment opportunity for A-share to see the bottom?

Do a shares have investment opportunities? Chen Guo, a strategic analyst at Anxin securities, believes that on the one hand, investors need to see that the recent sharp drop in overseas financial markets is actually due to liquidity tension and panic, while the current liquidity problems and panic have begun to show signs of marginal improvement, which makes the global risk assets expected to rebound and repair in the short term after the sharp fall.

On the other hand, Chen Guo believes that in the medium term, the trend of A-share market will not keep pace with that of overseas market. After the extreme panic, asset trends of various countries will be differentiated according to their respective fundamentals. Chinas fundamental trend is different from that of overseas market. The meso data indicators of Chinas economy have begun to show marginal improvement in the near future. It is expected that further policies will be implemented in the future, Its sustainability and range are worth looking forward to.

Chen Guo judged that for domestic asset allocation, it is necessary to pay attention to the impact of falling foreign demand on total demand, as well as the negative transmission of export industry chain pressure on consumption and manufacturing investment. The release of liquidity risk is conducive to the domestic bond market, and may be beneficial to some stocks that were wrongly killed due to liquidity shock.

Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai open source fund, said that the U.S. stock shock also had a certain impact on the A-share market, but the impact was short-term. In the medium and long term, as the U.S. stocks gradually complete the process of bottoming out and falling rapidly, there may be shocks and falls after that, and investors panic will ease, so that the A-share market will have the opportunity to rebound. The developed countries market has seen a peak decline, and the economic growth has also slowed down. Therefore, it is a big trend for global capital to shift from developed markets to emerging markets. In emerging markets, Chinas capital market is the most attractive. After the outbreak, the overseas market began to stabilize, and the A-share market will usher in the opportunity to resume the rise.

Analysts at CITIC Securities said they expected the bottom signals of four major markets, namely, overseas epidemic, global liquidity, US stock volatility and domestic policy, to be gradually clear in the next few weeks, with a share in the best allocation window of the year.

u25a0 shareholders stories

Some investors speculated on the concept of masks and suffered several falls

Although some analysts believe that A-share is in the best configuration window of the year, some shareholders still have some drumming in their hearts. Xiao Zhang, a shareholder, said, the stock market is still volatile at present. Although it is said that A-share is a safe haven, but as a shareholder, I am still a little afraid. After all, I think it is difficult for A-share to be alone in the globalization and dare not copy the bottom. According to her introduction, before that, she had held the concept of mask sou YUTE, those who enter from a high position, now there are several drop stops, and there is nothing left. Now the tuyere is fast, I dont know how long it can fly, so I ran. Xiaozhang, a shareholder, told reporters that she had cleared her position a few days ago. As an ordinary shareholder, what she could do was to adjust her position to the right position. Another shareholder told the reporter, with three stocks in hand, the stocks with the most positions decreased by nearly 50%. The reason for buying at that time was that as the leader of science and technology stocks, the stocks had performance support and good fundamentals. They bought the stocks according to the value investment. When the decline increased, they didnt want to copy the stocks on the hillside. The losses continued to expand, cut a small part of the stocks, and most of them were waiting for recovery, I believe that Chinas stock market will survive the economic crisis. Beijing News reporter Zhang Siyuan, editor Gu Zhijuan, editor Yue Cai, Zhou Xiao, to Zhang Yanjun

Although some analysts believe that A-share is in the best configuration window of the year, some shareholders still have some drumming in their hearts. Xiao Zhang, a shareholder, said, the stock market is still volatile at present. Although it is said that A-share is a safe haven, but as a shareholder, I am still a little afraid. After all, I think it is difficult for A-share to be alone in the globalization and dare not copy the bottom. According to her introduction, before that, she had held the concept of mask sou YUTE, those who enter from a high position, now there are several drop stops, and there is nothing left. Now the tuyere is fast, I dont know how long it can fly, so I ran.

Xiaozhang, a shareholder, told reporters that she had cleared her position a few days ago. As an ordinary shareholder, what she could do was to adjust her position to the right position.

Another shareholder told the reporter, with three stocks in hand, the stocks with the most positions decreased by nearly 50%. The reason for buying at that time was that as the leader of science and technology stocks, the stocks had performance support and good fundamentals. They bought the stocks according to the value investment. When the decline increased, they didnt want to copy the stocks on the hillside. The losses continued to expand, cut a small part of the stocks, and most of them were waiting for recovery, I believe that Chinas stock market will survive the economic crisis.