Jiang Chaos macro view: how to balance face and inside of economy?

category:Finance
 Jiang Chaos macro view: how to balance face and inside of economy?


Affected by the new crown epidemic, the national two sessions were postponed. At present, in addition to Yunnan and Sichuan, 29 provinces have held two sessions. What signals have been transmitted by the local two sessions and what clues have been provided for the national two sessions?

Local economic objectives: from a reasonable range to the bottom line. Summing up the economic growth targets set by the local two sessions: first of all, the reduction of growth rate is still the main tone, 21 provinces and cities have lowered the growth target, only Tianjin has increased it. Secondly, the target range is significantly lower than last year. The number of provinces and cities that set up targets in the form of interval has been reduced from 15 in 19 years to 5, among which 10 provinces and cities set the target of this year to keep the lower limit of 19 year interval. In terms of regions, the western region has been significantly reduced, while the central region is relatively stable. Overall, the target growth rate of local weighted average GDP in 20 years is 0.3 percentage points lower than that in 19 years, indicating that the target of national economic growth in 20 years may be lowered synchronously.

Why is the growth rate reduced? Repair the base number, ensure employment and consolidate the foundation. There are three main reasons for local governments to reduce the growth rate: to lower the base number and reduce the pressure. First of all, according to the revision of the preliminary accounting data of GDP by the Bureau of statistics, in order to achieve the goal of doubling in 20 years, the actual growth rate of GDP in 20 years only needs to reach about 5.5%. Compared with the growth rate of 6.3% before the revision, the pressure to achieve a well-off and secure growth is significantly reduced. Employment protection is more important than growth protection. Secondly, at this stage, China pays more attention to the quality of economic development. However, the unemployment rate in the national urban survey in 19 years increased by 0.3 percentage points compared with that in 18 years, and the employment pressure increased significantly. Therefore, the guaranteed employment is more important than the guaranteed growth. The target setting of the local governments unemployment rate is also more cautious, which is generally higher than the actual level of last year. Reduce the target and lay a solid foundation. Finally, the achievement of the local economic growth target in 19 years is not ideal. As many as 15 provinces and cities failed to achieve the target at the beginning of the year, accounting for nearly half of the total. In addition, the Bureau of statistics has revised the preliminary accounting of local GDP in 18 years, and more than 40% provinces have revised their GDP data. Therefore, in the face of the hidden worry that the growth foundation is not solid, local governments generally choose to reduce the target to lay a solid foundation.

Desalination of economic face: shed to change tide, infrastructure support, manufacturing upgrading. The local two sessions also played down the 20-year investment target, 11 of 29 provinces and cities did not mention the investment growth target, and the targets announced were mainly flat and down, only Guangdong and Tianjin increased. Specifically, the three major investments, housing does not fry the tone, the shed reform continued to ebb. First of all, housing is not fried is still the main tone. In the communiques of various provinces and cities, there are 10 references to real estate without speculation, 6 references to long-term mechanism, 8 references to implementation of policies due to the city, and the real estate regulation has not been relaxed. Only 9 provinces and cities clearly put forward the goal of 20-year housing reform, of which 4 fell and 1 rose, and the housing reform continued to ebb; while the transformation of old residential areas was prominent, 15 provinces and cities clearly put forward the goal of transformation, which is expected to support 20-year real estate investment. We should focus on infrastructure construction and pay equal attention to 5g transportation. Secondly, infrastructure construction is still an important starting point for steady growth. In terms of traditional infrastructure construction, provinces generally proposed to promote the pilot construction of a powerful transportation country, with high-speed rail, highway, airport and water conservancy projects in the central and western regions, and rail transit and high-speed rail in the eastern coastal provinces. The coordinated development of regional economy promotes the construction of a number of projects around airport group, port group and regional rail transit interconnection. In terms of new infrastructure, provinces and cities generally put forward clearer and measurable objectives around the four types of new infrastructure construction with 5g communication network and 5g + as the core. We will develop new industries and accelerate manufacturing upgrading. Finally, in the aspect of manufacturing investment, it is often mentioned to implement the strategy or plan for the development of new economy, set up research institutes, research funds, etc. to provide technical support for the new economy, and 20 years of innovative manufacturing may become a highlight of the investment end.

Focus on economic inside: stabilize employment, support private enterprises, and deepen reform. From the point of view of the key tasks of the economic work of the provinces in the past 20 years, the most important task is employment, and the priority should be given to employment. First of all, we should implement the spirit of the Central Committee. Both the local and the local sessions emphasize the implementation of the employment priority policy, and generally require that the employment work of key groups be done well and vocational skills training be strengthened. We will support the private sector and rescue and reduce the burden of access. Secondly, at the end of the 19th, the 28 articles of the state supported the private economy, and the local governments have introduced measures to promote the development of private enterprises, mainly focusing on three aspects: broadening the financing channels of small and medium-sized enterprises, promoting the reform of separation of license and license to remove market barriers and reducing the apparent and hidden operating costs from the perspective of service enterprises. In addition, many places put forward reform measures to relax the market access of private enterprises in the bulletin, some provinces and cities clearly put forward the opening of key industry market, which is also an important part of the reform of state-owned assets and state-owned enterprises. We will deepen institutional reform and remove institutional obstacles. Finally, deepening the system reform is also the key work of local government for 20 years, especially the reform of state-owned assets and state-owned enterprises. In the next stage, the reform will mainly focus on three aspects: improving the supervision system focusing on capital management, deepening the mixed reform and optimizing the layout of the state-owned economy, including promoting the central local cooperation and adjusting the local structure.

The NPC and CPPCC held a delay novel coronavirus pneumonia outbreak. As of March 15, in addition to Yunnan and Sichuan, 29 provinces have held two sessions. What signals have been transmitted by the local two sessions and what clues have been provided for the national two sessions?

1. Local economic objectives: from a reasonable range to the bottom line

This paper summarizes the GDP growth targets of provinces and cities, which mainly show two characteristics:

First, it is still the main tone. Of the 29 provinces and cities, 21 have lowered their GDP growth targets, while 7 are flat, while only Tianjin has increased the target growth by 0.5 percentage points. Compared with the target reduction of 24 provinces in 19, this years target is slightly reduced, but the main tone is still below. In order to compare the economic targets of the past years, we simply treated the target interval with the median value of the interval. The average adjustment range of 21 provinces and cities that lowered the targets was nearly 0.5 percentage points, among which the reduction range of Tibet, Guizhou, Fujian and Shaanxi, which ranked in the top two growth targets, was equal to or more than 1 percentage point.

Second, the target range is significantly reduced. Among the 29 provinces and cities that have announced their growth goals, those that set goals in the form of intervals have been significantly reduced from 15 in 19 years to 5, and 10 of the 15 provinces and cities keep the lower limit of the 19-year target interval as their growth goals this year. For example, the 19-year GDP targets of the three provinces and cities of beishangguang are all in the range of 6% - 6.5%, keeping pace with the whole country, while the 20-year unified target is the lower limit of 6%.

The most significant decline was in the western region, and the central region was relatively stable in recent years. In terms of regions, the western regions 20-year target reduction is the largest, which is 0.6 percentage points. In terms of the trend of setting economic targets in recent years, the western regions 17-20-year average annual reduction is the same as 0.6 percentage points, with the most obvious decline in each region. However, the 20-year target growth rate in Northeast China was only reduced by 0.1 percentage points, the lowest among all regions, mainly due to the 19-year target was greatly reduced. As for the central region, since 19 years, the average growth rate of its target has exceeded that of the western region, leading among the four regions. In recent years, the growth target of central China is relatively stable, with the growth rate of 20-year target reduced by 0.2 percentage points to 7.3% compared with last year.

Local targets continued to squeeze water, and the weighted growth rate was reduced by about 0.3 percentage points. We use the nominal GDP of each province in the previous year as the weight to calculate the weighted average growth rate of actual and target GDP of each province over the years. Since 13 years ago, with the local government getting rid of the burden of growth and actively squeezing out the water in the past economic data, the difference between the provincial weighted average growth rate and the national actual economic growth rate has gradually decreased. In 19 years, the growth rate of national GDP was 6.1%, and the weighted average growth rate of each province was 6.5%.

Therefore, the target of local economic growth has more important reference value for judging the economic growth of the whole country: the target growth rate of provincial weighted average GDP in 20 years is about 6.5%, 0.3 percentage points lower than that in 19 years, and considering the impact of the epidemic, the economic growth rate in the first quarter is expected to decline significantly, and the 20-year economic growth target set by the two sessions of the National Peoples Congress will also be lowered simultaneously.

2. why is the growth rate reduced? Repair the base, ensure employment and consolidate the foundation!

There are three main reasons why local governments generally reduce their growth targets and shift from a reasonable range to keeping the bottom line.

2.1 lower repair base to reduce pressure

In the early stage of GDP base adjustment, the pressure of doubling has been eased. First of all, to achieve the goal of a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way, we need to reduce the pressure of maintaining growth. The report of the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China clearly points out that to ensure the achievement of the grand goal of building a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way by 2020, it is necessary to realize the requirement that the gross domestic product double that of 2010.

According to the results of the fourth national economic census, the National Bureau of statistics has revised the previous GDP accounting data. Before the revision of the data, according to the calculation of 19-year GDP growth rate of 6.1%, if the GDP in 2020 is to double that in 2010, it will take 20-year GDP growth rate to reach 6.3%. However, due to the uprevision of the pre GDP base, after the revision, the actual GDP growth rate in 20-year can only reach about 5.5% to achieve the goal of a moderately prosperous society. Therefore, in the past 20 years, the pressure of local governments to achieve well-off growth has been significantly reduced.

2.2 employment protection is more important than growth protection

We should pay attention to the quality of economic development and ensure that employment is more important than growth. Secondly, in the context of economic development from high-speed growth to high-quality development, the goal of local governments is not limited to economic growth. For example, the pressure on employment has increased significantly in the past 19 years. At the end of the year, the national urban survey unemployment rate increased to 5.2%, 0.3 percentage points higher than the 4.9% at the end of the year, and the urban survey unemployment rate in 31 big cities increased to 5.2% from 4.7% at the end of the year. It can be seen that maintaining the stability of the employment situation has become an urgent task for the government, and even to a certain extent, its importance is higher than that of maintaining growth.

The unemployment target is set cautiously, higher than last years actual level. Under the background of rising employment pressure, local governments are generally cautious or even conservative when setting the 20-year unemployment rate target. Among the 19 provinces and cities with data available for comparison, no matter from the survey of unemployment rate or registered unemployment rate, the unemployment rate target set by each province and city in 20 years is not lower than the actual level of unemployment rate in 19 years. Then, considering the internal consistency among various government goals, since there is no basis for lowering the unemployment rate goal, the setting of economic growth goal should not be too high.

2.3 lay a solid foundation for lowering targets

The achievement of the goal is not ideal, and nearly half of the provinces have not reached the goal. Finally, the achievement of the economic growth goals of all provinces and cities is not ideal. Judging from the completion of the 19-year target, the economic growth of up to 15 provinces in 19 years has not reached the target set at the beginning of the year, accounting for nearly half of the total. And 7 provinces are only equal to the growth target set at the beginning of the year or have just reached the lower limit of the target range. Only 9 provinces can exceed the target set at the beginning of the year or the lower limit of the target range, accounting for less than 30%.

More than 40% of the provinces have revised down their GDP and lowered their growth targets to lay a solid foundation. In addition, according to the accounting system of GDP and the results of the fourth national economic census, the National Bureau of statistics revised the preliminary accounting data of GDP of each region in 2018. From the perspective of the situation of each province, it can be said that there are more than 40% of the provinces GDP data in 2018 has been revised down. Most of the southern regions, especially the southeast coastal provinces, have been revised up, while the northern regions have been revised up The lower repair rate is higher in provinces. According to the situation of 19 years, the economic foundation of the provinces in the upper revision is relatively solid, and the economic growth trend is generally good, while the provinces in the lower revision have more or less encountered some difficulties in the process of economic transformation, and the economic growth rate ranks lower in the country. Therefore, under the condition that nearly half of the provinces revise the data, it reflects that the economic growth may face the hidden worry of weak foundation. It is reasonable for local governments to reduce the growth target and further consolidate the economic foundation.

3. Desalinate the economic face: the tide of shed reform is ebbing, infrastructure is supporting the bottom, and manufacturing is upgrading!

Investment is mainly diluted, and the target is stable. Of the 29 provinces and cities that have held the two sessions, 11 did not mention the investment growth goals, 4 were not comparable because they did not mention the goals last year, while the investment growth goals of the remaining 14 provinces and cities were 2-up, 6-flat and 6-down compared with last year, i.e. mainly flat and down, only Guangdong and Tianjin reversed the trend of up.

3.1 the house will not be fried, and the shed reform will continue to ebb

Real estate is not speculation is still the main tone, real estate regulation has not been relaxed. At the end of the 19th, the central economic working conference stressed that we should adhere to the positioning that houses are used for living, not for speculation, comprehensively implement the long-term management and control mechanism of policy-making for the city, stable land price, stable house price and stable expectation, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. Local governments have responded to the call in succession. In the government work reports of 29 provinces and cities, 10 mentioned housing is not speculation, 6 mentioned long-term mechanism, 10 mentioned three stabilities, and 8 mentioned implementing policies for the city. And development of housing rental market has become a high-frequency word. Although some supporting documents of real estate have been issued due to the impact of the epidemic, there are not many loose policies aimed at the buyers and the financing end of real estate enterprises in the current policies, and the overall tone of the policies for real estate is the same.

In the past three years, the shed reform continued to ebb. Twenty years is the final year of the 18-20 new three-year greenhouse reform plan. In the past 18 years, 18 provinces and cities have clearly achieved the goals of that year. Compared with the target of 18 years, the target of 19 years shed reform was cut short. 13 provinces and cities clearly completed the target of that year, among which 10 provinces and cities overfulfilled it, and Tianjin, Zhejiang and Anhui provinces and cities completed the task of the new three years ahead of schedule. In this context, only nine provinces and cities have clearly proposed the goal of greenhouse reform in the past 20 years. Among them, the number of target renovation units in provinces with comparable data has decreased by 4 to 1, which means that the tide of greenhouse reform is still continuing.

The transformation of old residential areas is prominent. In August, 19, the transformation of old residential quarters was included in the scope of special fund support. At the end of the 19th central economic work conference, it was emphasized that we should increase housing security for the urban poor, strengthen urban renewal and upgrading of existing housing, and do a good job in the transformation of old urban communities. From the annual work report of the local government in the past 20 years, 15 provinces and cities clearly put forward the goal of old residential area transformation, which is expected to support the real estate investment in the past 20 years.

3.2 infrastructure construction should be carried out with equal emphasis on 5g transportation

Infrastructure construction is still the key to steady growth. At the end of last year, the central economic work conference clearly proposed that we should strengthen the construction of strategic and network-based infrastructure, steadily promote the construction of communication networks, accelerate the implementation of major projects for natural disaster prevention and control, strengthen the construction of municipal pipe networks, urban parking lots, cold chain logistics, and accelerate the construction of rural roads, information, water conservancy and other facilities.. At the press conference in January this year, the national development and Reform Commission once again stressed that in the past 20 years, it will focus on key areas and weak links such as industrial upgrading, poverty alleviation, infrastructure, peoples livelihood security and solidly promote the implementation of key tasks such as making up for shortcomings and stabilizing investment.

Transportation power and regional cooperation help traditional infrastructure. Before that, the annual working conference of the Ministry of transport put forward the goal that in 20 years, the railway investment will be about 800 billion yuan, the highway and waterway investment will be about 1.8 trillion yuan, and the civil aviation investment will strive to reach 90 billion yuan. The provinces also generally put forward in their local government work reports to promote the pilot construction of a powerful transportation country and focus on supporting the areas of making up for shortcomings. The central and western provinces mainly focus on high-speed rail, highway, airport and water conservancy projects, while the eastern coastal provinces mainly focus on rail transit and high-speed rail. The coordinated development of regional economy, represented by Beijing Tianjin Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, Guangdong Hong Kong Macao Bay area, promotes the construction of a number of projects around the airport group, port group and regional rail transit interconnection, which continuously injects power into the traditional infrastructure.

5g communication is a bright spot in the implementation of the goal of new infrastructure construction. As the support of new economic development and the supplement of traditional infrastructure, provinces and cities generally put forward clearer and measurable goals around the four types of new infrastructure construction proposed by the 18 year economic working conference. Around the core 5g communication network and 5g +, 9 local governments represented by Tianjin, Chongqing, Zhejiang, Shandong, etc. clearly put forward the construction goals of 5g base stations ranging from 10000 to 50000, and 13 local governments put forward the goal of 5g network coverage. In addition, Liaoning, Jiangsu, Hubei and other nine provinces have clearly proposed to vigorously promote the construction of industrial Internet, Jiangxi, Hainan, Chongqing and other provinces have proposed to build big data center platform or channel, Hebei, Shanxi, Guangxi and other provinces have proposed to build Internet of things, Jiangxi and Chongqing have proposed to build provincial and municipal cloud computing centers.

3.3 develop emerging industries and accelerate manufacturing upgrading

Develop new industries and promote the upgrading of manufacturing industry. At the end of 19, the central economic working conference proposed that we should promote the development of the real economy, improve the level of manufacturing industry, develop new industries, and promote mass entrepreneurship and innovation. The work reports of provincial governments also focus on intelligent manufacturing and emerging industries. In the work report of local government, 23 provinces explicitly mentioned emerging industries, 16 provinces explicitly mentioned intelligent manufacturing, 4 provinces and cities mentioned new economy, and the key areas of attention were focused on artificial intelligence, electronic information industry, biomedicine, new energy, blockchain, big data, Internet of things, etc.

Implement strategies or plans to develop new economy in many places, such as Tianjins five-year plan for the introduction of new energy, Hebeis three-year plan for the development of strategic emerging industries, Zhejiangs five-year doubling plan for the digital economy, Henans ten major emerging industry development actions, Tibets three-year plan for mass entrepreneurship and innovation, etc. At the same time, local governments set up research institutes, scientific research funds, encourage the integration of production, learning and research to support innovation and entrepreneurship, and continue to provide technical support for the new economy. Combined with the outstanding performance of industrial added value of emerging industries, 20-year innovative manufacturing is expected to become a bright spot on the investment side.

4. Focus on economic inside: stabilize employment, support private enterprises and deepen reform!

From the perspective of the key tasks of the economic work of the provinces in the past 20 years, it has become the consensus of the local governments to stabilize employment, support private enterprises and deepen reform.

4.1 priority of employment

Local governments continue to implement the employment priority policy. To implement the spirit of the Central Committee, the provinces and cities that have held the two sessions stressed in the government work report that they should continue to implement the employment priority policy, take stable employment as the top priority and take multiple measures to increase employment and income. Specifically, the key work mainly includes: first, to do a good job in the employment of university graduates, laid-off and unemployed people, migrant workers, veterans and other key groups, including the implementation of support for the people in need of employment, so as to achieve the goal of zero employment family dynamic clearing up; second, to encourage entrepreneurship to promote employment, to achieve flexible employment through multiple channels; third, to strengthen vocational skills training Including the expansion of higher vocational education to alleviate the structural employment contradiction. In addition, many provinces and cities have also mentioned to eradicate the problem of migrant workers back pay. Some provinces have mentioned to continue to implement specific policies such as phased reduction of unemployment insurance and work-related injury insurance rates, return of unemployment insurance for difficult enterprises and employee on-the-job training subsidies to strengthen the stability of enterprises.

Encountering the new crown epidemic, the local employment policy was upgraded again. Because of the two meetings, the new crown epidemic has not yet entered the outbreak period. Affected by the epidemic situation, the pressure on employment has been further upgraded. On February 18, the executive meeting of the State Council stressed that at present, to do a good job in epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development as a whole, an urgent task is to stabilize employment. At the call of the central government, local governments have also successively issued detailed action plans to enhance employment stability, focusing on extending the implementation of enterprise subsidy policy, improving the employment measures of key groups, and promoting multi-channel employment of workers. In the face of the test of the epidemic on the economy, stable employment will occupy a more significant position, and the policy strength will be further increased.

4.2 support the private economy, rescue and reduce the burden access

Article 28 supports the private economy. At the end of last year, the central economic working conference proposed that we should improve the property right system and market-oriented allocation of factors, improve the legal environment to support the development of private economy, improve the policy system for the development of small and medium-sized enterprises, we should formulate and implement the three-year action plan for the reform of state-owned enterprises, improve the comprehensive effect of the reform of state-owned assets and state-owned enterprises, and optimize the environment for the development of private economy. In December, 19, the State Councils opinions on building a better development environment to support the reform and development of private enterprises provided strong support for improving the business environment and promoting the development of the private economy, focusing on seven aspects: fair competition, policy services, the rule of law environment, private enterprise reform, standardized development, the relationship between government and business, and organizational guarantee.

Local governments respond to the spirit of the central government, focusing on financing, market and burden reduction. Under the guidance of the 28 national regulations and the unswerving support of the central government for the development of private economy, local governments have introduced measures to promote the reform and development of private enterprises. According to the communique of the local two sessions in the past 20 years, compared with the previous years, the policy is more market-oriented, refined and service-oriented.

First, we need to broaden the financing channels for SMEs, further solve the problems of financing difficulty and high cost, and focus on the establishment of rescue and guarantee funds to the financial market reform and innovation, precision drip irrigation support entities, and some provinces are more assisted by the government bank enterprise docking system to break through the obstruction. For example, the pilot projects of supply chain finance and intellectual property insurance proposed by Beijing, the platform construction to support the reform of financial services accelerated in Jiangxi, and the loan growth target of small and micro enterprises of commercial banks was set in Anhui Province.

Second, we will continue to remove market barriers, promote the reform of separation of license and license, further solve the problem of no business in access on the basis of market access, and implement fair competition. 11 local governments in Hubei, Jiangsu, Shanghai and so on have introduced corresponding measures, and Jiangsu, Hunan, Hainan and Ningxia have formulated the pilot goal of full coverage of the reform of separation of certificates and licenses.

Third, from the perspective of service enterprises, we should reduce the explicit and implicit operating costs, promote deregulation of services, implement tax reduction and fee reduction, and build a Pro Qing government business relationship. Specific measures such as the optimization of approval process proposed by Hebei, Shanghai, Guangxi, Hainan, etc., and the general operation of online platform business proposed by Fujian, Jiangxi, Guizhou, etc.; Hebei, Zhejiang, Jiangxi, etc. put forward the annual reduction target of enterprises ranging from 1 to 270 billion yuan, a total of 15 local governments put forward the implementation and expansion of tax reduction and fee reduction measures; Heilongjiang, Shandong, Chongqing, etc. put forward the establishment of cadre contact Entrepreneur system, timely grasp the difficulties and demands of enterprises.

We will promote the reform of state-owned enterprises with state-owned assets and open the door to market access. In response to the deregulation of competitive business in key industries and fields such as electric power, telecommunications, railway, oil and natural gas and deregulation of market access in infrastructure, social undertakings, financial services and other fields proposed in Article 28 of the State Council, many governments put forward reform measures to deregulate the market access of private enterprises in the communique of the two sessions. Specifically, Liaoning proposes to liberalize the market access of operating power users in an all-round way, Hunan encourages private capital to participate in the restructuring and reorganization of state-owned enterprises, supports private enterprises to enter the fields such as transportation infrastructure and municipal public utilities, Chongqing relaxes the access threshold of pillar industries and peoples livelihood, while Shanghai, Anhui, Fujian, Henan, Guangxi, Guizhou, Gansu and Ningxia all explicitly express that We will ease market access for private enterprises. The deregulation of market entry in key industries is an important part of the reform of state-owned enterprises with state-owned assets. At the same time, it also opens up a broad space for the private economy and reduces the cost of water, electricity, coal and other factors.

4.3 deepen system reform and remove system obstacles

At the end of 19th, the central economic working conference stressed that in the past 20 years, we should focus on deepening the reform of economic system, and through the reform, we should remove the system and mechanism obstacles faced by development and activate the dormant development potential. From the work reports of local governments, deepening system reform has also become the focus of 20 years, especially the reform of state-owned assets and state-owned enterprises. At a press conference at the beginning of the 20th century, Peng Huagang, Secretary General of the SASAC, said that the SASAC is working with relevant departments to work out the three-year action plan for SOE reform. From the work report of local government, the reform of state-owned enterprises with state-owned assets in the next stage may be carried out around the following aspects:

The first is to improve the regulatory system focusing on capital management. In April, 19, the State Council issued the plan for the reform of the authorized management system of state-owned capital, which actively promoted the transformation of the regulatory function focusing on capital management. At the meeting of heads of local SASAC held from January 11 to 12, the director of SASAC mentioned that 27 localities have issued the functional transformation plan of SASAC regulatory agencies, and 31 localities have reorganized and established more than 100 state-owned capital investment and operation companies. In the 20-year government work reports of each province, on the one hand, most of the provinces mentioned that the pilot of state-owned capital investment and operation companies should be included in the governments key work, and Liaoning should pay attention to the reform task of energy holding, water resources, airport group; on the other hand, Inner Mongolia, Chongqing and other provinces also mentioned to promote the centralized and unified supervision of operational state-owned assets.

Second, we will deepen the reform of mixed ownership. In 19 years, the mixed ownership reform of state-owned enterprises has made a significant breakthrough. Marked by the mixed ownership reform of Gree, state-owned assets have experienced the transformation from sole proprietorship to absolute holding, to relative holding, and finally to non holding. From the work reports of local governments, the reform of mixed ownership of state-owned enterprises in the past 20 years will continue to advance in depth. For example, Jilin has set the goal of striving to enter the first echelon of the mixed ownership reform of provincial state-owned enterprises in three years, Shanxi has mentioned further improving the mixed ownership reform rate of provincial secondary and lower subsidiaries, Shandong Province has made greater efforts to make it clear that by 2021, the number of mixed ownership reform of provincial enterprises and the proportion of assets will reach 75%, and it mainly implements the mixed ownership reform plan of state-owned enterprises through one-to-one To achieve this, there is no threshold for non-public capital access, no proportion limit, no industry limit.

Third, optimize the layout of the state-owned economy. Optimizing and adjusting the layout of the state-owned economy is also the key task of this round of state-owned enterprise reform. Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, 22 groups and 41 enterprises have been reorganized and integrated at the level of central enterprises, and the restructuring of state-owned enterprises in 19 years also presents a new trend of central local restructuring. From the work reports of local governments, the work of optimizing the layout of state-owned economy in the past 20 years will be carried out from two dimensions: one is to promote cooperation at the central and local levels, for example, Jilin mentioned promoting the integration of central enterprises with local development, releasing demonstration, diffusion and driving effect, Tibet also clearly promoting cooperation with central enterprises such as China Tourism and Baowu group; the other is the structural adjustment at the local level For example, Shanxi mentioned to promote the specialized restructuring of coking coal, modern agriculture, digital economy, culture and tourism, water affairs and other fields, Chongqing said to continuously promote the layout of the state-owned economy to focus on strategic emerging industries, infrastructure, public services.

Source: Jiang Chao, editor in charge of macro bond research: Yang Qian, nf4425