The first wave in China, the second wave in Europe and the United States, will there be a third wave of major epidemic

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 The first wave in China, the second wave in Europe and the United States, will there be a third wave of major epidemic


The following is the full interview:

China Science Daily: at present, some countries have chosen moderate control measures to deal with the epidemic, and the UK even proposed to obtain group immunity by infecting most people.

What do you think of the measures taken by these countries?

Lushan: the word moderate is not accurate. It is not moderate, but cruel.

Therefore, the group immunity initiative and its adverse consequences that you are worried about have not yet happened, and I think it will not happen in the future.

Lushan: I believe that the current situation in China can be maintained all the time. Infectious diseases look terrible, but if we all have open information and the virus comes, we will immediately block it and eliminate it, and its risk will be very small.

It has been proved that whether the virus will cause serious harm when it comes to an area depends on the proportion of infected patients and medical resources in this area.

Another key point is that real cases and false cases should not be mixed together, and patients with cold symptoms should not rush into the hospital and break down the medical system, which is also the reason why the shelter hospital plays an important role in relieving pressure.

The Chinese team will not be removed for at least half a year. Even if someone leaks in, the eyes of the masses are bright. All the people, administrative personnel and law enforcement personnel will find him as soon as possible.

So I dont worry that China will return to the early stage of Wuhan outbreak.

Lushan: although Europe has not taken such positive isolation measures as China on the surface, it is likely that after Italys experience, Britain, Germany and other countries have adopted the way of loosening the external and tightening the internal. Although the government has not taken too many mandatory measures, local governments and people have begun to manage themselves.

In addition, Europe itself has better health environment, medical system, social insurance and welfare institutions. I think they may achieve epidemic control from another perspective.

At the beginning of February, the United States did a good job in controlling the entry of the first wave of possible infected persons, but it was totally unprepared for the second wave of case input, and it was not until March 11 that the restrictions on European tourists were announced. Once the news was released, a large number of people from Europe rushed to the United States before the blockade.

So how many cases will occur in the United States in the next two weeks.

What I have seen in the United States is that there has been a large area of tension among the common people. Most of the units have started to formally or informally require employees to work at home. The number of people on the street has greatly decreased. Coffee shops in the countryside also have signs saying, you can order to take away, but we dont want you to sit down and enjoy..

Due to the small number of basic cases and the fact that the medical systems around the United States are in full swing, I think the epidemic situation in most parts of the United States is likely to move closer to the previous Beijing and Shanghai models, and the epidemic situation in the United States should be controlled eventually.

In fact, I think the biggest uncertainty of the global epidemic is that we havent seen what is going on in Africa, South America and other third world regions.

After the first wave of epidemic in China and the second wave in Europe and America, will there be a third wave of epidemic in other places?

China Science Daily: in the context of the global epidemic, the importance of vaccines has been highlighted. But we see that there is no available coronavirus vaccine for human beings.

Is the development of coronavirus vaccine more difficult than other viruses? Can we be optimistic about the development of new coronavirus vaccine?

SARS and mers are the two coronaviruses that have attracted a lot of social attention, but there is no vaccine for them. Why?

HIV vaccine cant come out sooner or later, which is more limited by science and technology. However, unlike HIV, which can infect the human body for life, the new virus is self limited, which shows that the human body can produce antibodies to control the virus. Therefore, theoretically, the hope for the success of the new coronavirus vaccine is relatively great.

Generally speaking, the cycle from R & D to marketing of vaccines is really long. Some people say it will take 8 to 20 years, but this cycle depends on social and political factors to a large extent. On the premise of ensuring that the candidate vaccines have no toxic and side effects, many processes are relatively flexible and can turn on the green light.

Finally, whether the vaccine can be carried out or not depends on the production scale, the expectation of enterprise investment and profit, social psychological factors and so on. It depends on whether the government and the people are eager for the vaccine or willing to get it.

China Science Daily: will the current large-scale spread of new coronavirus increase the variation and diversity of the virus, which will bring greater difficulties to vaccine research and development?

Lushan: there is an understanding that needs to be clarified. Many people believe that the new coronavirus is an RNA virus, and RNA viruses are easy to mutate - thats not the case.

So is the new coronavirus susceptible to mutation? At least we see that the virus has infected more than 200000 people, but no major mutation has been found. I dont think thats a barrier to vaccine development. Make the vaccine first, and then worry about the possibility of mutation.

China Science Daily: what are the problems of public health system in various countries exposed by the epidemic?

Lushan: 50 years ago, if a government leader heard of an epidemic, he would consult some clinicians in infectious diseases; 20-30 years ago, leaders might prefer virologists and other experts in microbiology because they can speak more advanced and higher-level information such as genome; now, leaders will listen to experts in public health system. This evolutionary trend is normal, but also dangerous.

China is lucky to have clinicians like Zhong Nanshan and Zhang Wenhong with public health literacy. Why do you want to believe Zhong Nanshan and Zhang Wenhong? Because clinicians have the acuteness of clinicians, as well as the belief that they can never tell lies - patients condition will not lie.

It is also very important that the public health system and its staff should not be separated from the social environment. Public epidemiological survey cant be solved by computer in office.

Real epidemiologists should have a deep understanding of the local areas, especially the specific cities and villages, understand astronomy and geography, understand hydrometeorology, understand social customs, how people eat, how they celebrate festivals and how they greet each other, which will affect the spread of infectious diseases.

Learn by doing.

China Science Daily: so with the current technology and medical conditions of human beings, will the situation like Spanish influenza in 1918 reappear?

At the end of January and the beginning of February this year, I was very worried about the complete collapse of the medical system in Wuhan and even Hubei, and about the downfall of the countrys top experts who went to support, not only because some of them were my friends, but also because it would destroy the countrys valuable anti epidemic power.

hank goodness! None of this happened.

Extended reading experts: how fast is nucleic acid detection in China for infected people who can practice combined with traditional Chinese medicine rehabilitation five birds play? Its not because the technology is better. Bezos: the epidemic is likely to worsen. The company will buy millions of masks to its employees. Source: China Science Daily, editor in charge: Wang Fengzhi, nt2541