1. The new securities law comes into effect on March 1
On December 28, 2019, the 15th meeting of the Standing Committee of the 13th National Peoples Congress deliberated and passed the newly revised Securities Law, which will come into force on March 1 this year. This revision is the most important revision of Chinas securities law in more than 20 years since its implementation. It has made systematic improvement on the basic systems of issuance, trading, supervision, information disclosure, investor protection and administrative law enforcement of the securities market.
There are several highlights in the new securities law. One is to comprehensively implement the registration system and change the issuance mode of the original approval system. The second is to increase the punishment of illegal costs. For example, the original fine is 1 to 5 times, now it is 1 to 10 times, and the fixed fine is increased from the original maximum of 600000 to 20 million, effectively deterring illegal acts. In addition, the new securities law also formulated specific provisions on information disclosure, investor protection and other aspects, which is of great significance for the long-term development of the capital market.
The strategic team of Anxin Securities pointed out that the registration system is an important part of the market-oriented reform of A-share. Together with the pilot of scientific and technological innovation board, the reform of M & A and refinancing, the reform of delisting system to be promoted in the future, and the new three board reform, it constitutes the main content of the current capital market reform, and is also an important policy basis for A-share to mature and meet the mature cattle.
2. The registration system is officially implemented for the issuance of corporate bonds
The development of Chinas bond market has entered a new historical stage.
On March 1, the national development and Reform Commission issued the notice on issues related to the implementation of the registration system for the issuance of corporate bonds, which made it clear that the registration system for the issuance of corporate bonds was changed from the approval system. The national development and Reform Commission is the legal registration organ of enterprise bonds. The issuance of enterprise bonds shall be registered by the national development and Reform Commission according to law.
At the same time, the notice of the national development and Reform Commission specifies the conditions for the issuance of corporate bonds, and the issuer of corporate bonds shall have a sound and well functioning organization; the average distributable profits in the last three years shall be enough to pay the interest of corporate bonds for one year; it shall have a reasonable structure of assets and liabilities and a normal cash flow; it shall encourage the investment of the raised funds for the issuance of corporate bonds to meet the requirements of the state Project construction of macro-control policies and industrial policies.
In addition, the provincial-level reporting link in corporate bond reporting has been cancelled, and the provincial development and Reform Commission is only responsible for the supervision of the project itself. The biggest change is the constraint of 40% and the requirement of net assets scale. In the future, the upside space of the whole bond market will increase accordingly.
Guotai Junans fixed income team believes that due to many structural problems, this round of bond issuance relaxation has limited economic benefits. Institutional relaxation is only a catalyst, the essence is still the real financing demand, but under the high leverage of the real economy, it is difficult for the entity to have incremental financing demand; the financing benefits are more obvious, it is determined to be good for credit bonds, and the rating sinking market will continue. However, in addition to the relaxed issuance, whether investors buy or not is still the decisive factor for the benefit degree of the sector, so the structure will still be the logic of the strong will always be strong, the benefits of urban investment will be more obvious, and the private enterprise sector will also benefit, but the benefit degree is relatively low.
3. Trump called for the fed to cut interest rates its almost time
In a statement released on the afternoon of February 28, the Federal Reserve said that the fundamentals of the U.S. economy are still strong, but the new coronavirus poses an evolving risk to economic activity, and the Federal Reserve is closely watching the development and its impact on the economic outlook. We will use our tools and take appropriate action to support the economy.
At 1:30 p.m. local time on February 29, President trump of the United States, vice president burns and members of the coronavirus task force held a press conference again. When talking about whether the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates, trump said that the Federal Reserve has a huge psychological impact on the market. At present, interest rates in the United States are at the highest level in developed countries, and we should have more With low interest rates, we hope the Fed can do its job well. Whether its related to the stock market crash brought by the epidemic or not, its almost time for the Federal Reserve to take the lead in cutting interest rates.
The latest strategies of the top ten securities companies
CITIC Securities: A shares are still on the way to well-off cattle. March is the best time for annual allocation
The strategic team of CITIC Securities believes that the market will enter a four stage superposition environment in March, and the market is still on the way to well-off cattle. It is expected that March will enter a peaceful period, which is an excellent allocation opportunity for the whole year.
First of all, the epidemic has entered a period of spread outside China, but the global capital market has been fully adjusted. The huge earthquake in US stock market will not further induce global systemic risk. From the perspective of capital attribute, the capital source of US stock institutions is mainly long-term pension, and there will be no large-scale simultaneous redemption. From the perspective of valuation level, the dynamic P / E of S & P 500 is nearly 17 times, corresponding to the cash return of 5% + and the valuation has returned to a reasonable level. From the perspective of liquidity, the probability of the Federal Reserves interest rate cut in March has increased significantly. Abundant liquidity is the best shield against systemic risk.
The second is that the domestic economy has entered a rapid recovery period, the policy level has increased the code, and the resumption / resumption of production has started to accelerate the climbing. It is expected that March will enter an accelerated climbing period, and April is basically close to the normal level. When the production of large enterprises returns to normal, it will effectively guarantee the stable operation of economy and become ballast. With the recent implementation of a series of policy measures, such as tax reduction and fee reduction, financial services, rent reduction and employment stabilization, the difficulties in the production and operation of small and medium-sized enterprises will be gradually relieved. The sharp rebound of various economic data in March is a high probability event.
At the same time, the team expects that the RMB exchange rate will remain relatively strong for some time in the future, the risk of sustained large-scale outflow of foreign capital is small, and the outflow rate will significantly slow down compared with the last week of February.
For the A-share market, the team said that technology stocks will enter the calibration period of performance and valuation, individual stocks will go to differentiation, and high-quality technology white horse will finally win. For investors, the A-share market will enter a period of peace, and there will be no rapid V-shaped reversal after the Spring Festival, which is a good opportunity to gradually allocate A-share.
In terms of configuration, the team suggests focusing on three major sectors:
2. Due to the emotional impact brought by the overseas market, the technology stocks have been greatly adjusted in advance. Considering that the leading technology and pharmaceutical companies with performance support are expected to return to the upward channel in the second quarter, it is suggested that investors who have already heavily placed in the technology sector do not have to significantly adjust their positions, keep the technology white horse, and adjust the individual stocks with pure theme / concept nature;
3. Considering the long-term layout, the optional consumption sector with fully adjusted valuation ushers in a better allocation period.
The main line is still science and technology + securities companies after the years upward market pattern remains unchanged
Haitong Securities strategy team pointed out that the adjustment was triggered by a sharp fall in external market, which was essentially driven by post holiday liquidity, but the fundamentals were poor. The outbreak of the novel coronavirus pneumonia will impact the short-term fundamentals, but the three logic of the bull market has not wavered, that is, the cycle of bull and bear cycles, the rebound of corporate profits and the tendency of large class assets to be biased toward the stock market.
The impact of the current epidemic on the fundamentals is mainly concentrated in the first quarter. It is predicted that the fundamentals are expected to see a rapid recovery after the end of the epidemic. The main reasons are as follows: first, the epidemic is only a short-term disturbance to the fundamentals. Historically, the average profit in February and March accounts for 4.9% and 7.1% of the whole year. The impact of the epidemic on the annual corporate profits is not significant, and the resumption of production in China is actively advancing; second, the week of storage The regularity of the period is relatively strong. It is judged that the period is at the bottom of the inventory cycle and is about to rebound. The team predicted that the profit cycle will bottom again in 2020q1, and the bottom recovery pattern will change from arc bottom to W-shaped bottom, and the medium-term profit trend will not change, so the bull market pattern remains unchanged.
As for the adjustment range, the team said, panic bottom, i.e. 2685 points of the Shanghai Composite Index on February 4, is hard to break. At present, the number of newly confirmed cases in China continues to decline, and the effect of hedging policy is gradually emerging. Unless the epidemic is completely out of control in the world and enters the global economic recession, similar to the systemic financial crisis in 2008, the possibility is very small at present. In addition, the low point of 2440 at the beginning of 2019 is the bottom of all market pessimistic expectations. The total nominal GDP in 2019 is 10.1% year-on-year. If the market point is calculated by referring to the macro-economic growth rate of 10.1%, the theoretical market point should be 2686, which is very close to the low point of 2685 on February 4, that is to say, the low point after the Spring Festival opening panic and sharp fall is relatively low Solid, basic support.
The team pointed out novel coronavirus pneumonia, which will be the main reason why A shares will resume their 3 wave and the wave of the new wave will accelerate. After the end of the break, securities companies and technology will remain the main line. In the context of deepening the reform of the financial supply side, the proportion of direct financing in China will increase in the future. On February 14, the CSRC issued a new regulation on refinancing, which will increase the leverage of securities companies, thus boosting performance improvement. In addition, after the rapid rise of technology stocks in the short term, it needs to be reversed and digested, and the upward trend in the medium term will remain unchanged u3002
Medium term direction is still science and technology growth
The team pointed out that the main risks of the epidemic to China began to shift from the internal to the external, and the allocation direction became more clear correspondingly - focusing on domestic demand and internal supply. The medium-term style of the market is determined by the relative profit growth, followed by the liquidity environment. The impact of the overseas epidemic has not damaged the relative profit growth of the market, and even the margin has increased the possibility of further easing domestic liquidity. Therefore, in terms of industrial allocation, it is suggested to grasp the industrial logic and benefit from the technological growth with loose liquidity.
In addition, due to the high uncertainty of the expansion of overseas epidemic, and the low PMI data in February in China may accelerate the implementation of domestic counter cyclical policies such as infrastructure construction, it is suggested to appropriately increase the traditional economic sectors with low external dependence, strong internal supply capacity or independent and controllable domestic demand to balance positions, such as building materials, medicine, etc.
China Merchants Securities:
The influence of external risk on A-share gradually slows down
The strategic team of China Merchants Securities believes that in March, A-share will remain volatile, the volatility will slow down, and the structural level will become relatively balanced. The team pointed out that the domestic epidemic has been effectively controlled and the number of newly confirmed cases has declined significantly. Domestic fiscal policy is expected to be more active, monetary policy is expected to be more flexible and appropriate, and enterprises are speeding up the resumption of work. Therefore, domestic factors are positive. However, at present, the epidemic is spreading to the world, causing a certain degree of panic in the capital market in the short term. But governments have begun to face up to the spread of the epidemic and are taking a number of response measures. In particular, the U.S. monetary policy may be further relaxed, providing positive support for market liquidity. Therefore, the overseas market fell sharply last week and the panic was released. In the future, it will return to the epidemic response and policy, and the overseas market will change from a rapid decline to a wide shock. Therefore, the impact of external risk on A-share gradually slows down.
The team pointed out that in March, we need to pay attention to some key points, namely, the interpretation of the global new crown virus epidemic and the fluctuation of overseas markets. Due to the economic globalization, Chinas economy is difficult to be independent, and due to the land stock connect mechanism, A-share is difficult to be independent in the global scope. Therefore, the interpretation of the global new crown epidemic has become an important factor affecting the risk preference of A-share in the future. In addition, in February Under the impact of the epidemic, the economic data to be released from January to February should be more stressful than before, so the policy expectation will be further heated before and after the data is released, and the performance announcement period began in March last year. Some listed companies will publish the performance forecast at the same time of the annual report, and the markets attention to the performance will be significantly improved.
Specifically, in terms of industry allocation, the team proposes to allocate traditional infrastructure and digital infrastructure in a balanced way. At the same time, the securities sector will benefit from the improvement of excess liquidity and low interest rate environment, so it can keep its attention.
Great fluctuation of overseas market does not change the operation direction of Chinese market
According to the securities strategy team of CSCI, from the perspective of overseas liquidity, the interest margin between LIBOR US Treasury bonds in March and US Treasury bonds in March remained in a stable range of 0.12-0.13%, and there was no liquidity depletion of financial institutions. Therefore, the impact of the overseas epidemic will not cause liquidity risk of the financial system.
In addition, for China, the main process at this stage is reverse cycle adjustment and return to work. According to the observation, on March 1, the overall resumption progress of the whole country reached 64%. Under the condition of controlling the epidemic situation repeatedly, accelerating the resumption of work and production is the core work of China at present. If there is no recurrence of the epidemic, it is expected that the resumption of work by the end of March will be completely normal.
The team pointed out that the sharp fluctuation in the overseas market impacted the A shares, but did not change the direction of the operation of the Chinese market. As the resumption of work continues to advance, the counter cyclical policy continues to strengthen, monetary policy is loose, and the macro policy environment is conducive to market recovery. At this stage, we need to pay close attention to the impact of the development of overseas epidemics.
On the main line of industry configuration, the team suggests:
1. In the process of resumption and counter cycle adjustment, the price of memory, paper, cement, chemical and other industries has been raised, and the valuation level is reasonable, so it is suggested to give priority to it.
2. During the epidemic period, durable consumer industries such as real estate, automobile and home appliances, whose demand has been compressed, will rebound again and need to be matched.
3. The science and technology sector, which is supported by the industrial boom and liquidity policy, can increase its position again after the market is back to a reasonable range, which is also the main line of the capital market throughout the year.
Short term A-share may shake and consolidate and stick to the main line of science and technology
Novel coronavirus pneumonia is a negative economic impact under the control and control policies. The A share market will be short term or will shake up and the value of mid and long-term investments will be highlighted. There are three main reasons:
1. The epidemic situation in China has been effectively controlled and the orderly resumption of work is gradually advancing;
3. The price performance ratio of stocks and bonds shows that the attraction of stock asset allocation has been improved again.
In terms of industry allocation, the team suggests that traditional industries such as liquor and real estate may strengthen in stages in the short term, but in the medium and long term. It is suggested that 5g construction and application, semiconductors, new energy vehicles, innovative medical devices, high-end manufacturing and other growth themes that resonate well with the cycle of science and technology industry and financial policy should be allocated preferentially during the adjustment period. Automobile, infrastructure, agriculture and other sectors benefit from policy catalysis, but the upside space is limited. The novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic is more influential globally, and it is recommended to avoid negative impacts on aviation, logistics, transportation, tourism and foreign trade related sectors.
There is little room for a share to continue to fall sharply
Everbright Securities strategy team pointed out that last week, a shares were disturbed by the collapse of the overseas market. In the short term, the main exposure was the global market volatility caused by the spread of the overseas epidemic, which was the main cause of the market decline. In February, the risk of PMI exceeding the expectation downward reflected the pressure of economic data was gradually exposed. However, there is no need to worry about the falsification of more worrying loose expectations and stagflation, at least after the domestic epidemic is completely controlled.
The team believes that the impact of the epidemic on a shares is lower than overseas. On the one hand, the valuation reflected by the total market value / GDP shows that the U.S. shares are at a historical high and a shares are still at a medium level; on the other hand, the implied growth expectation of market valuation has dropped to about 5%, basically in line with the annual economic growth expectation. In the future, the team still believes that A-share is mainly determined by the domestic policy economic cycle, the external market volatility is only a short-term disturbance, which is difficult to form a trend impact, and although the global epidemic has a large impact, it is not out of control, so loose hedging policy is on the way. As long as the risk of excessive loose expectation falsification and rising stagflation does not appear, the market is not considered to have the space to continue to fall sharply and to reach a new low. In the later stage, the strength of domestic policy counter cyclical adjustment will continue to support the market. Given that the market valuation has been reasonable, if the market continues to fall sharply, it is still recommended to buy.
In terms of configuration, the team suggests that in addition to focusing on basically good oriented industries, attention should also be paid to the resumption of industrial production and the repair of pessimistic expectations of counter cyclical adjustment. After TMT industry managers callback, the loose policy trend may continue, but the market risk appetite is obviously broad, it is suggested to focus on the areas where the fundamentals are less affected by the global epidemic and the valuation is relatively reasonable. The short-term benefit epidemic of contactless economy represented by online office, online education and other industries will also usher in development opportunities in the medium and long term.
The recovery of stock market falling out of gold pit 2.0 will be more stable
According to the strategy team of Anxin securities, the U.S. economic recovery and stock bull market have been more than ten years, and the probability of a new round of economic recession, stock bear market and even crisis is not low. But because the global stock market fell so sharply last week, although the global economy is doomed to be depressed in the first half of the year, according to the market rules and reasonable response from all walks of life, there is a high probability that there will be no crisis this year.
Back home, the team said that the promotion of policies in the next stage is expected to be further accelerated. From the perspective of relevant statements from the early policy level, the positive fiscal policy will be more significant. However, in the first two months of 2020, the scale of local debt financing reached a record high in the same period, and there is still room for fiscal development. Considering the current situation, the adjustment of a share due to overseas epidemic concerns is golden pit 2.0. Different from the golden pit 1.0 that fell out after the opening of the market in the year of rat, the market position, especially the position of technology stocks, is relatively higher. Of course, the global risk-free interest rate is also further reduced.
The team pointed out that from the perspective of market data, the current overall market valuation level is still within a reasonable range. At present, the median valuation of all A-shares and gem indexes fell to 27.55 and 41.8. From the perspective of the rise and fall on the 20th, the current rise and fall of the Shanghai Composite Index on the 20th is - 2.1%, and the growth enterprise market index on the 20th fell to 7.5% from its Monday high of 17.2%. At the same time, although the market fell last Friday, the new development fund still completed the fundraising in one day, and the next two weeks will still usher in fund intensive issuance, which is expected to boost market expectations.
According to the market law, the repair market of golden pit 2.0 may be more stable, and the market risk preference may be slightly reduced, which makes the speed and structure of market repair different from the repair market of golden pit 1.0. It is expected that the repair speed will be more moderate, the structure will not be too extreme, and the market will no longer be overly popular Theme stocks pay more attention to fundamentals, mainly for the first quarter report. This years prosperity and medium and long-term space, opportunities will mainly be high-quality growth stocks, while the undervalued stocks that benefit from the steady growth will also have appropriate performance.
Dont be overly pessimistic, still optimistic about the growth of big innovation technology throughout the year
The strategy team of Societe Generale Securities pointed out that after the adjustment, the market gradually returned to the basic operation logic, and at the same time, it is more necessary to pay attention to the effect of overseas prevention and control measures, especially the potential impact and disturbance of overseas market on a shares. In this context, both the molecular end and the denominator end need time to improve, and the market is dominated by structural opportunities. This stage is a good time for investors to combine the annual report, eliminate the fake stock in the first quarter, work hard, select the good stock carefully, and actively layout the boarding point of good track. It is a good time for investors to configure two-way walk. One is the core asset value leader with low value, high dividend and stable performance. First of all, we will step into the big innovation and real leading technology company.
With the gradual rise of the market in January and February, some investors began to fantasize about the extreme excitement of buffalo and leveraged bull in 2015. The team believes that there is no need for over optimism or over pessimism. After the short-term uncertainty factors are gradually eliminated and returned to normal, under the leadership of the Quartet of national attention, residential configuration, institutional configuration and global configuration, the chief bull of a company will continue to move forward steadily and healthily.
In addition, under the promotion of a series of stable policy measures, the fiscal policy should be more active and effective, and play a good role in policy finance; the prudent monetary policy should be more flexible and appropriate, we should actively expand effective demand, promote consumption replenishment and potential release, play a good key role in effective investment, increase the start-up of new investment projects, and speed up the construction progress of projects under construction, etc, After a period of adjustment, the value of core assets of the leading companies has grown steadily in the bottom area, with relatively high cost performance. The value of phased allocation deserves attention. On the other hand, as a series of short-term technology stocks may have some adjustments due to overcrowding of transactions and excessive profit taking, the growth opportunities of big innovation technology are still worthy of attention throughout the year. From the perspective of industry, we can understand that 5g brings tob industrial Internet, and Tesla brings the transformation of automobile industry chain of new energy vehicles, similar to the huge transformation and market space that iPhone brought to TOC mobile Internet 10 years ago.
Founder Securities: bargain hunting layout of stock market
Founder Securities strategy team believes that, from the perspective of economic growth, the global epidemic spread is a new risk point, and economic growth is expected to be affected by weak external demand. At present, the return to work status of enterprises is still uneven, liquidity remains abundant, market interest rates continue to decline, all interest rates are low, and follow-up social changes are concerned.
In addition, the team pointed out that the risk appetite is constrained by two factors: on the one hand, the sharp adjustment of the peripheral market, the black week of the U.S. stock market, the weekly decline of the main stock index is more than 10%, and the overall risk appetite of the A-share market has cooled; on the other hand, after the release of Chinas PMI data, the expectation of counter cyclical policy reinforcement has further increased, and the probability of the Federal Reserves interest rate cut has increased significantly in March, and the stock market The logic of ticket market deduction lies in the change of economic expectation and market risk preference in the short term, and the core lies in whether the epidemic situation of each country can be effectively dealt with and the launch of loose policies.
Specifically, in terms of configuration, the team suggests that we should pay attention to two directions: first, infrastructure and real estate chain related to counter cyclical policy, building materials, real estate, engineering machinery, construction, etc., and money easing and code adding can pay attention to securities companies in stages; second, growth. From the perspective of gem and CSI 300 valuation comparison, the relative value of growth will continue to rise after September 2019 Value change confirms that growth style has formed a trend, and industrial change is the core of growth style, and pay attention to TMT, advanced manufacturing, medical services, etc.
Global stock market hit hard by the spread of the epidemic abroad
Last week, the epidemic spread around the world, with major stock indexes in the United States, Europe, Asia and other major stock indexes plummeting. The Dow Jones index fell nearly 4000 points, or 13.42%, in seven sessions, and the A-share gem index fell nearly 10% in three sessions.
What is the impact of the epidemic on the global capital market? What is the impact of a share? How to adjust position? The top 10 private placements have made predictions.
Zeng Xiaojie, yuanlesheng asset: dont panic panic itself
We believe that the epidemic has been controlled in China, but there is no doubt that the impact of the epidemic on the economy, especially the service industry and consumption and export-related industry chain, has been more impacted. However, the epidemic is a one-off impact after all. It is expected that from March, the focus of the Chinese governments work will be changed from anti epidemic situation to maintaining growth. On the one hand, consumption will be restored as soon as possible, and investment will be greatly stimulated. It can be expected that in the next six months, there will be three loose in China, namely, loose fiscal policy, loose monetary policy and possible real estate policy.
In addition, the epidemic will also cause a one-off impact on the profits of many listed companies, which is expected to reduce their profit expectations by 20%. But on the whole, the epidemic will only delay consumption and not disappear, and the profit will increase significantly in 2021. At the same time, the valuation of A-share traditional stocks is in a low position in history, and the three pines in the future may be good for these stocks. In the case of abundant liquidity and shortage of assets, a good company may be the point of purchase when it is hit by a one-off epidemic.
We hope that investors will be cautious about the market volatility. What we panic about is the panic itself. The market will make short-term mispricing due to this panic. If you encounter February 3 again, you should firmly buy rather than sell your assets.
Yu Xiaochang, manager of capital fund:
With the spread of the epidemic around the world, the capital market is more pessimistic about the global economy, and the risk aversion mood is rising. A shares also adjusted after the sharp fall overseas. On the one hand, it came from the impact of the decline in the external market. On the other hand, it gained a lot in the early stage, and there was a callback pressure. At the same time, it also reflected the markets concern that the spread of the global epidemic hit the domestic economy.
In the medium and long term, this adjustment does not change the long-term upward trend of a shares, which depends on internal factors. First of all, the overall valuation of a shares is still at a historical low, and investors are willing to enter the market strongly; second, the central bank has released abundant liquidity, and more active fiscal and monetary policies may accelerate the recovery of domestic demand after the outbreak. Moreover, we have achieved good results in epidemic control. In the second quarter, we may see a retaliatory rebound in consumption and investment. After the retreat of risk aversion, the yield curve is expected to steepen again, and emerging markets are expected to usher in incremental capital. With the passage of time and the improvement of the epidemic situation, the stock market will eventually return to the fundamental trend, and a share has medium and long-term investment value.
From the perspective of the sector, the technology sector leading the rise has cooled down, but the logic of technology growth has not been destroyed. From the perspective of large assets, policies and industry prosperity, technology stocks are still the main stage. After this adjustment, digestion and foam, the technology sector is still worth looking forward to. At the same time, the recent underpriced blue chip stocks rose, which also reflected the bullish attitude of the market funds.
A-share adjustment is the second opportunity to get on the bus after the year
Last Fridays decline of a shares does not count as a follow-up. There are three reasons: first of all, the decline in foreign countries started from last Monday, while a shares opened low and went high from last Monday to Thursday. This adjustment is more like a correction of the rapid rebound after the Spring Festival. Secondly, there has been structural adjustment and healthy trend in the rising process of A-share after the year. The only problem is that the trend of concept stocks in the technology sector is too strong, but this indicates that the asset shortage caused by the round of monetary easing does not lead to the choice of real estate, but the choice of stock market. Finally, this weeks adjustment we see the resilience of the real estate infrastructure sector.
On the one hand, this market adjustment presents a rare opportunity to get on the train again after the Spring Festival, on the other hand, it validates our barbell strategy (the logic of technology leader + high dividend between two main investment lines). In the technology leading sector, we mainly focus on the three main tracks of new retail, AI + cloud computing +, Internet of things, as well as the traditional industries endowed with technology, such as express delivery, high-end property, insurance, automobile, etc., which are not expensive and good companies in various fields can support and run through the main line of technology bull market; in the high dividend sector, we mainly focus on the ERP indicators of real estate, infrastructure, banking and other equity bonds More than 85% shares, this part of the valuation correction is on the way.
Wang Zheng asset:
Globalization of epidemic situation may cause short-term recession of global economy
The sharp drop in international stock and commodity markets reflects the impact of the internationalization of the epidemic. There was a sharp correction in Chinas A-share market last week, not only due to the impact of the globalization of the epidemic, but also due to the large short-term increase.
The risk of epidemic globalization is that if the spread of epidemic in other countries continues to spread on a large scale, it may cause a short-term global economic recession. At present, this probability is rising, which will have a short-term impact on the export sector of Chinas economy. Secondly, the spread of the epidemic in other countries will increase the risk of re outbreak of the epidemic in China, which may affect the progress of returning to work and peoples daily life, thus having a longer-term impact on the economy.
The epidemic will eventually pass, but it will take longer than we expected. At the same time, we adjusted our portfolio structure to cope with the impact of the globalization of epidemic situation. Pan science and technology is still the focus of our allocation. We should appropriately avoid industries highly related to foreign demand and increase industries highly related to allocation and government expenditure.
Wanli Fidelity Investment:
The epidemic may bring squeeze growth to leading enterprises
At present, we are optimistic about Chinas epidemic prevention and control; for the global epidemic, there are still uncertainties, because it is difficult for countries around the world to match Chinas implementation efficiency, but the positive factor is that Chinas export of prevention and control experience is becoming more and more perfect. In the long run, we believe that time will solve most problems.
As for the impact of the epidemic on the global economy, we should look at it differently. On the one hand, for small and medium-sized enterprises with high fixed cost and rigid expenditure, lack of cash flow, high leverage operation and weak brand power, the impact of the epidemic is short-lived but severe, even related to the survival of small and medium-sized enterprises; on the other hand, for leading enterprises with strong brand power, light asset management, abundant cash flow, high voice in the industrial chain and good competition pattern, it may bring To squeeze growth.
In general, the epidemic does not affect our judgment on the intrinsic value of Chinas high-quality enterprises, and comprehensively considers valuation, performance growth, risk-free rate of return and other factors. At present, the market is still at a low level, and we are optimistic for a long time.
Bao Xiaohui, founder of Changli assets:
The short-term impact is mainly in the manufacturing industry, which will increase the demand for hedging products in the long term
In the short term, the impact of the epidemic on the global economy is mainly in the manufacturing industry. The adoption of anti epidemic measures by the epidemic countries will slow down production and affect the global industrial chain. The more important the epidemic country is in the global industrial chain, the more strict the government controls the epidemic, the greater the impact on the global economy. Global epidemics usually have a short-term negative impact on asset prices.
In the long run, the impact of the epidemic on economic fundamentals is limited, and investment returns to rationality. As a result of the epidemic, funds are seeking to avoid risks. As a kind of fund to avoid risks, it is necessary to reserve opinions on whether the gold price can continue to rise. Within one month after the outbreak, the A shares and MSCI global index fell, and over time, the A shares will return to fundamentals. Since the outbreak of the epidemic, the stock market has continued to rise after a short-term sharp decline, the essential reason is that the global economic activity cycle is on the rise, while the policy cycle is on the loose trend. While maintaining a lower position, we are optimistic about stocks with high growth value.
Zhang Zhiwei, chief economist of Baoyin Investment:
Be cautious about the stock market
The overseas epidemic continues to worsen. The main reason for the adjustment of US stock market is the spread of the epidemic. A share has been greatly adjusted by the impact of the overseas market, the gold price has increased significantly, and the overseas risk aversion mood has increased.
Next, the domestic macro data will be relatively weak, mainly concerned with policy measures. In March or when more easing policies will be introduced, but if the policy is relaxed from marginal to marginal unchanged, or the policy is mainly fiscal rather than monetary, it may be detrimental to the market.
Overseas are concerned about whether the international community will impose a travel ban on the entire East Asia region, as well as the epidemic situation in Europe and the United States. In addition, the possibility that the Democratic Partys main candidate will take office increases to further stimulate the market decline.
In terms of other assets, the RMB will be relatively stable, there will be little real estate opportunities, and policies will be relaxed but limited to small and medium-sized cities. Bonds and financial products are one direction, and the downward trend of interest rate in China is relatively certain.
Overseas market may continue to decline, calm to see the impact on Chinas assets
The impact of the epidemic on the economy and market is short-term, but the time and space for market adjustment are issues that investors need to consider. In the short term, the spread of overseas epidemic is likely to continue, and there is still a possibility that the overseas market will continue to decline, but the negative information may have been priced to a large extent.
The impact of the spread of overseas outbreaks on Chinese assets (A shares and Hong Kong shares) needs to be looked at calmly. First of all, as the initial country of the epidemic, China has effectively suppressed the spread of the epidemic through strong measures. Even after considering the impact of the spread of overseas epidemic on foreign demand, the most difficult period of Chinas economy has passed with the orderly promotion of resumption of production and work. Secondly, under the impact of the epidemic, domestic fiscal policy and monetary policy are more active. In terms of finance, the issuance of special bonds by local governments has been expanded, and stage tax reduction and fee reduction have reduced the cost of enterprises. In terms of currency, the central bank launched a 500 billion yuan re loan to reduce the financing cost of small and micro enterprises, the loan LPR interest rate was lowered, and the deposit benchmark interest rate was also possible to be lowered. Our research shows that the general liquidity environment in China will improve significantly in the next 1-2 quarters, and the growth rate of social finance is expected to pick up.
A shares may go out of independent market after adjustment
The volatility of US stocks only affects the short-term performance of a shares. In the short term, the flight of funds will cause market volatility, and the international epidemic panic has brought the fluctuation of international funds. The Shanghai Stock connect has accumulated five trading days net outflow since the 21st, and the Shenzhen Stock connect has accumulated four trading days net outflow since the Monday, with a total net outflow of 25.3 billion.
However, the short-term capital fluctuation does not affect the medium and long-term investment. In the medium and long-term, it is determined by currency space and corporate profits, not by the American economy.
From the perspective of behavioral finance, investors response to the current epidemic has both short-term panic and long-term recovery optimism. But often the feelings and judgments in the short term determine the current behavior and resonate, and looking back afterwards will appear overreacting.
China is the only country where the epidemic has occurred and has been well controlled. As the spread of the overseas epidemic accelerates, we gradually say goodbye to the most difficult time. This may make a shares out of the independent market after adjustment. Some of the funds may have made safe haven decisions, buying gold and treasury bonds.
For some other funds, the A-share market, which has reflected the economic impact of the new crown virus, is also a safe place for the panic to spread. This is not similar to the factors that caused the international market to fall, such as US interest rate hike, rising inflation, and national debt upside down.
Shi bin, head of China equities, UBS asset management:
In the long run, its just a little twists and turns in the long history
This time, the impact is really great, but in the long run, it should be a relatively small twists and turns in the long history. At present, Chinas situation is gradually improving, and the overseas situation is relatively grim. Difficulties will surely pass in the long run. At the same time, we also see that every crisis will bring opportunities, such as turning opportunities for online entertainment, online education and other enterprises. Therefore, we should not be too pessimistic, but we are not optimistic at present.
As a professional investor, we basically consider from these three aspects: first, we need to judge whether the company can withstand the past. In this case, the first and second place in each industry must have stronger ability to resist risks. The second is to see which industries can benefit from the change of behavior. These industries / companies will be the targets we choose or pay more attention to. The third is valuation. Some industries are really affected by the epidemic, but if the market overreacts in the long run, it is another opportunity for investors. As the epidemic spreads overseas, leading to the adjustment of European and American markets, Hong Kong stocks will certainly be affected in the short term, but in the long term it must be highly related to its own economy, industry performance and performance.