Some fund managers thought February would be an important watershed for fund performance this year. However, under the background that the Dow Jones index of U.S. stock market has recorded the largest weekly decline since 2009, the global epidemic prevention and control situation is still evolving, and the turnover of A-share for eight consecutive trading days has exceeded trillion yuan, how to choose fund managers is more critical.
The coexistence of avoidance and persistence
The risk from the periphery is no longer the black swan incident, but the visible grey rhinoceros. A number of fund managers admitted that they had responded to risks by reducing positions and using stock index futures hedging tools.
Equity futures instruments have been used last week to reduce net long exposure to hedge short-term systemic volatility risk. Heju investment said. Similarly, Shibei Investment: the current position reduces the affected uncertain companies and the companies that are hard to recover in the short term, and reduces some net positions by means of hedging.
Some organizations choose to cut down the warehouse directly. Last Tuesday, when the market went out of the V-shaped reversal, it had significantly reduced its position. Last Friday, we increased our position slightly, but the overall position is still very low. Zhang Yuan, a private equity manager, said. Looking back at the investment in February, he admitted: its hard to do. On the first day after the Spring Festival, the market dropped a lot, and then rebounded quickly and rapidly. In the middle of the period, we had been short, but we couldnt hold up the hot market transactions and the obvious effect of making money, and we bought the promising technology stocks with high positions. Although these technology stocks were not cheap at the time of purchase, there was a sharp rise. Because we know that the valuation is not cheap, we will sell it if there is a bit of turbulence. We have done the band back and forth several times.
There are also private placements that continue to stick to high positions, believing that there is no systemic risk in the market. A private equity firm in Beijing, which played down the timing, said it still maintained a high position operation, with little reduction. The main reason is that there is no systemic risk in the market. But in the plate, avoid some over valued varieties, and add some long-term good quality stocks.
Another medium-sized private equity firm said that it only reduced its position slightly last week, and maintained a medium to high position. The main reason is that liquidity easing will support a shares, which is expected to be relatively good throughout the first half of the year.
Judging from the trend of A-share market, although it was adjusted continuously last week, the transaction is still hot. Since February 19, the turnover of A-share has exceeded 1 trillion yuan for 8 consecutive trading days, and the total turnover on February 28 has been enlarged compared with that on February 27. In the hot trading atmosphere, the institutions that reduce positions do not mean that they have given up trading opportunities, and continue to observe and wait for opportunities to trade has become their current mentality.
Zhang Yuan said that at present, its hard to say that the market has no chance, but it needs to wait for stability before it can intervene. One indicator of personal concern is the trend of crude oil. When the trend of crude oil stabilizes, there may be short-term opportunities. Crude oil futures, US oil and oil distribution have always been similar to the trend of the stock market, but they are not leading indicators of each other. At the same time, the opening time of American oil and cloth oil is earlier than that of a shares, and there is night market, so it can be used as a reference index.
It is worth noting that the sale of the new fund is still very hot. From February 24 to February 28, the situation of selling out from 1 to 2 will be repeated. According to wind data, Cathay Pacific blue chip selection, which began to subscribe on February 24, has a subscription deadline of over 4.7 billion yuan on February 25; bocom innovation pilot, which started to subscribe on February 24, has sold out on one day, with a total subscription share of 4.943 billion yuan; and Hongde Ruize hybrid, which started to subscribe on February 28, has a subscription scale of over 5 billion yuan, which ends the raising in advance on the same day, and adopts doomsday ratio The principle of example confirmation is to confirm the proportion.
Favorable policies support a share
Compared with the external environment with strong uncertainty, fund managers are trying to grasp some high certainty factors, and the favorable policy level has become a consensus. On the whole, fund managers believe that the decline in the overseas market does not directly map to the domestic market, short-term A shares will enter a callback period, but the upward trend of a shares will not be changed in the medium and long term.
Yu Xiaochang, manager of the capital fund, said that in the medium and long term, the adjustment does not change the long-term upward trend of a shares, which depends on internal factors. First of all, the overall valuation of A-share market is still at a historical low, and investors are willing to enter. Secondly, at the policy level, we should release sufficient liquidity, emphasize that the economic growth target should not be relaxed, and more active fiscal and monetary policies may accelerate the recovery of domestic demand after the outbreak. Moreover, the domestic epidemic control has achieved good results, and economic activities will gradually return to the right track. The second quarter may usher in a retaliatory rebound in consumption and investment, and the prospects for economic growth in the second quarter are promising. When the risk aversion mood subsides, the yield curve is expected to steepen again, and emerging markets are expected to usher in incremental capital.
Kaifeng investment pointed out that the decline of the overseas market does not directly reflect the domestic market. The domestic market, especially Hong Kong stocks, will be affected by the overseas risk aversion sentiment. However, the domestic epidemic situation has improved. Compared with the overseas situation, there are also stronger epidemic treatment systems and schemes as well as experience in coping with control, so the risk aversion fund may be easier to choose the Chinese market.
According to iluo investment, from the perspective of long-term cycle, up to now, the median increase of all a shares has been only 0.9% since this year, which is far from bull market. Therefore, even if there is a wave of intermediate adjustment of a shares, the current market belongs to the spring of a year in the long run, which belongs to the sowing time of long-term layout.
Support from the policy level is the confidence of institutions in the medium-term trend of A-share. Kaifeng investment believes that in terms of domestic policies, obvious measures have been taken to support the bottom line, financial and monetary regulation has been strengthened, the resumption of work and production has been gradually promoted, while in terms of capital, retail investors have been constantly mobilized, and a large number of fund sales have also supported A-share, so in general, A-share will be stronger than the overseas market.
It is expected that starting from March, the focus of work will be changed from the original anti epidemic situation to maintaining growth . On the one hand, consumption will be resumed as soon as possible, and on the other hand, investment will be greatly stimulated. Said yuanlesheng asset.
Wang Lei, from a Beijing fund company, said that the liquidity easing environment and the expectation of future policy adjustment are expected to promote the gradual restoration of market risk appetite after the impact of the epidemic. The market performance in the quarter will be adjusted due to the corporate performance and economic data disclosure, but the medium and long-term positive trend still exists. Subsequently, with the orderly progress of epidemic control and resumption of work, the market focus will gradually shift to the rebalancing of fundamentals and policy variables.
The company said the outbreak was under control in China. The actual turning point for Chinas epidemic was on February 4, so investors chose to buy after the sharp fall on February 3 as the data improved. Now, the outbreak of several major economies in the world is just beginning, which is in the stage before the Spring Festival in China. At this stage, investors are also most panicked. But once the inflection point is seen in the future, the market will rebound rapidly like the A-share market after the Spring Festival.
Shibei investment believes that the market is more concerned about the development of the epidemic. The domestic epidemic situation is controllable, and the view of returning to work is also positive; there is uncertainty abroad, but it will improve with the increasing attention of all countries. In this process, compared with global investment, Chinas economy and market may come out first. At present, the valuation of some technology companies is more expensive, but the overall market valuation is not expensive. Shanghai and Shenzhen 300pe is about 12 times, and this years performance may have some adjustment pressure, but this is staged, so it is difficult to have a huge falling space for this valuation, unless the epidemic is out of control in the world.
Heju investment said that in the future, the epidemic remains the most important factor affecting the market. The overseas epidemic is still in an outbreak period, so there is still a possibility of relatively large fluctuations in the short-term overseas market. However, the pace of domestic resumption of work is accelerating, and economic activities, including residents lives, are in a state of marginal improvement. In the short term, overseas and domestic economies are in a state of differentiation.
According to iluo investment, the biggest impact on a shares is the aggravation of the global epidemic and the collapse of peripheral capital markets. If the global epidemic continues to worsen, the global trade will be hit; if the epidemic is contained, the A-share will continue to perform along the original logic after adjustment.
Pay attention to the opportunity of technology stocks callback
Wang Lei said that under the resonance of the liquidity environment, boom direction and the start of refinancing policy cycle in 2020, the growth style will still be dominant in trend. Although there may be periodic adjustment in the middle, it will not change the long-term boom direction. In specific industries, it is suggested to pay attention to three major directions: first, pay attention to the media Internet industry chain, and the opportunity for the modern service industry dominated by informatization and automation to usher in the boom starting point, including games, live broadcast, long / short video, remote office / video conference system, cloud computing, e-commerce and fresh food, Internet health care, online education, etc.; second, 5g, new energy vehicles as representatives In 2020, the advanced manufacturing industry will continue to be a booming sector, and self-control will be the main line throughout the next five years; third, food and beverage, consumer services, traditional cyclical manufacturing and other industries that are greatly impacted by the epidemic, among which the leading enterprises have a strong ability to resist risks in the medium and long term, and relatively little impact. It is suggested that long-term funds should actively focus on the golden pit of core assets in the medium and long term u201dConfiguration opportunities for.
Yuanlesheng asset said that the outbreak will have a one-off impact on the profits of listed companies, and many companies are expected to reduce their profit expectations by 20%. But on the whole, the epidemic will only delay consumption and not disappear, so the profit in 2021 will increase substantially. For example, 5g related industries may be affected by the epidemic, but once the epidemic is over, 5g construction and consumption will develop rapidly. At the same time, the valuation of A-share traditional stocks is in a low position in history.
For those sectors with large growth in the early stage and callback in the near future, investment needs to be extra cautious, and we have avoided it. Qin Yi, manager of Hongde fund, said that companies that have fallen will choose industries and enterprises less affected by the global epidemic. In contrast, export-oriented enterprises are more affected, while domestic demand driven enterprises are more secure. On the whole, there is no need to worry too much about a shares. The current valuation and point position are not high, and there is limited downward space. Even if there is a pullback, some high-quality individual stocks will be very attractive, which will also bring better opportunities for the fund to build positions.
According to Yu Xiaochang, the technology sector that led the rally has cooled recently, but the logic of technology growth has not been undermined. From the perspective of large class assets, policies and industry prosperity, technology stocks are still the main line. After adjusting, digesting and removing bubbles, the technology sector is still worth looking forward to. At the same time, the recent underpriced blue chip stocks rose, which also shows the bullish attitude of on-the-spot funds.