In recent years, the competition among aviation, high-speed rail and road transportation has become more and more fierce. Taking the above lines as an example, the second-class ticket price of motor train in Shanghai Xian is 459 yuan, while the high-speed rail in Shenzhen Chongqing is suspended. Due to the existence of low-cost tickets, the air travel mode has fallen out of cost performance. It is worth mentioning that these low-cost tickets are basically the one-way situation of a certain route, and their return tickets are often relatively normal. Second and third tier airlines have obviously adopted a more radical strategy in low-cost tickets, such as Spring Airlines, while the ticket prices of first tier airlines on the same route are relatively higher.
Recently, many airlines have been selling tickets at a low price, mainly due to the low occupancy rate caused by the epidemic. A staff member of a large state-owned airline told reporters that although flights are gradually recovering, there are still few passengers. According to its observation, the current flight occupancy rate is only about 10% at ordinary times. In an interview with reporters, the head of another large state-owned airline pointed out that the air fare is dynamically adjusted according to the market situation, and the current phenomenon of low-cost tickets may only exist in individual flights or routes. According to the data obtained by Ctrip, if we go to the first tier cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen in terms of the export of labor services (Henan, Sichuan, Anhui, etc.), there are obvious discounts on some routes. For example, in the recent stage, tickets from Zhengzhou to Shanghai can still be bought with a 20-30% discount; tickets from Mianyang to Beijing can also be bought with a 40% discount.
What is the impact of the aviation industry?
On the situation of air transport industry, SASAC made a statement in mid February. SASAC pointed out that at present, the main focus of the three major airlines is still on fighting the epidemic and how to carry out the Charter mission. In addition, SASAC also said that the restructuring and integration of the aviation industry should respect the wishes of the enterprises, in accordance with their own development needs and industry development rules.
The low occupancy rate and high refund rate lead to huge loss of cash flow, which is the root of the difficulties of airlines at this stage. Now airlines have launched low-cost tickets to save themselves. Will this bring new pressure to airlines? The above-mentioned state-owned large-scale airline staff told reporters that the airlines are losing money every day. Even if they sell tickets at a low price, it is better for some people to sit than no one to sit. The data shows that the air passenger volume in January decreased by 5.3% year-on-year, which has a relatively small impact on the industry; the air passenger flow decreased by a large margin in February, and the accumulated passenger flow before February 18 decreased by 86%.
Anxin Securities pointed out that under the influence of the epidemic, the airline passenger flow has declined significantly, and the airline is facing greater operating pressure. It is expected that in the first quarter of 2020, the airline will face greater operating pressure, especially that the airline bears a large amount of debt cost and fixed cost, and the cash flow pressure is greater. One traffic industry analyst interviewed told reporters that the impact on the air transport industry was too negative. Since the first trading day after the Spring Festival, the wind aviation sector index has fallen by 7.33%.
The reporter noted that on the investor interaction platform, investors are very concerned about the situation of the airline affected by the epidemic. In response to relevant questions, China Southern said that the company will continue to pay close attention to the development of the epidemic, market dynamics and policy changes, adjust its transportation capacity in a timely, scientific and reasonable manner, and strive to minimize the loss. Huaxia said that the company pays close attention to the needs of fighting the epidemic and changes in passenger flow, and timely allocates airline capacity. At present, the company will give full play to the advantages of regional aviation network to meet the livelihood needs of the vast regional aviation market with high-quality, efficient, healthy and safe air transport services.
Talking about the recent working conditions, the staff of the above-mentioned large state-owned airlines told reporters that they would return to normal after returning to work in mid February, but due to the severe epidemic situation, they were still very cautious in their work. At the same time, the company does not restore all employees to work, but reduces the number of on-the-job employees as much as possible on the premise of ensuring the operation safety according to the flight seat rate.
According to the data of Cheng Yilong, in the third week of February, the air ticket search volume of the platform increased significantly. Among them, the air ticket search volume of Qingming holiday on February 23 increased by 138% compared with that of a week ago, and the air ticket search volume of May Day holiday increased by 84%.