In February, the purchasing manager index fell back, and the expected rate rose to above the boom and bust line

category:Finance
 In February, the purchasing manager index fell back, and the expected rate rose to above the boom and bust line


In February, the main characteristics of manufacturing PMI are as follows: first, the industries that guarantee the basic peoples livelihood are relatively less affected. Second, the decline of new order index is smaller than that of production index. Third, the import and export pressure of manufacturing industry has increased. Fourth, PMI of large, medium and small enterprises generally fell back.

In terms of PMI of non manufacturing industry, the service industry fell back. The service business activity index was 30.1%, down 23.0 percentage points from last month. In the 21 industries investigated, 19 of them have business activity index in the shrinking range, but the financial industry business activity index is 50.1%, which remains in the expanding range, playing an important role in epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development. The production and operation activities of the construction industry slowed down. Construction business activity index and new order index were 26.6% and 23.8% respectively, down 33.1% and 30.0% respectively from the previous month. From the perspective of market expectation, the expected index of business activity is 41.8%, down 22.6 percentage points from the previous month, but the expected index of business activity of civil engineering construction industry is 51.8%, which remains above the critical point, indicating that relevant enterprises have confidence in the recovery and development of the industry.

Li Chao, chief Macro Analyst of Huatai Securities, told reporters on March 1 that as PMI reflects the change of month on month and has a large response to exogenous shocks, there is no need to be overly pessimistic about economic growth. With the gradual recovery of production and life order, the PMI rate probably rose to a higher level in March.

In February, the comprehensive PMI output index was 28.9%, 24.1 percentage points lower than last month, and the production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises slowed down significantly. The manufacturing production index and non manufacturing business activity index, which constitute the comprehensive PMI output index, are 27.8% and 29.6% respectively.

Zhao Qinghe said that although novel coronavirus pneumonia caused a great impact on the production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises in the short term, the epidemic was initially curbed, and the negative effects on production were gradually weakened. The recovery rate of enterprises recovered faster and market confidence steadily recovered. According to the survey of purchasing managers, the return to work rate of large and medium-sized enterprises will rise to 90.8% by the end of March, of which the manufacturing industry will be 94.7%, up 11.9% and 9.1% respectively from the current level. Recently, a series of policies and measures, such as tax reduction and fee reduction, financial services, rent reduction and employment subsidy, have been gradually implemented, which will effectively relieve the difficulties brought by the epidemic to the production and operation of enterprises, further boost the confidence of enterprises, accelerate the pace of resumption of production, and predict that the purchasing manager index of China will improve in March.

Zhang Jun, chief economist of Morgan Stanley Huaxin securities, told Securities Daily that the policy focus in the next stage will gradually shift from epidemic prevention and control to economic recovery. In view of the structural differentiation in the progress of the whole societys resumption of work, the current policy orientation will focus more on targeted support. In addition to the increase in special subsidies and tax relief, the central bank has issued targeted policies such as special re loans to support small and micro private enterprises, which not only increased the amount of re loans, but also stated that the targeted reduction policy should be adjusted dynamically in the near future. Therefore, the central bank has a greater probability to implement a comprehensive and targeted reduction in March. While creating a more relaxed interest rate environment for special bonds, it can also increase targeted support for small and micro private enterprises and stabilize the production and operation expectations of enterprises.