Expert: the trump Taliban take what they need, and the United States takes the opportunity to dump the pot Afghanistan

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 Expert: the trump Taliban take what they need, and the United States takes the opportunity to dump the pot Afghanistan


Under the witness of about 300 guests, the United States and the Afghan Taliban signed a peace agreement in Doha, the capital of Qatar, on February 29, aiming to end the war in Afghanistan. The 18 years of U.S. military intervention in Afghanistan may be over.

Under the agreement, the United States will begin to gradually withdraw from Afghanistan, while the Taliban promised not to let Afghanistan become a sanctuary for terrorists. If both sides abide by the agreement, all foreign troops will withdraw from the inland Asian country with the name of imperial cemetery within 14 months.

Ma Xiaolin, Professor of Zhejiang Institute of foreign languages and President of the Mediterranean rim Research Institute, said in an interview with the first financial reporter that both sides need to reach a settlement. On the one hand, the United States is implementing a strategic contraction and is in urgent need of throwing the pot. At the same time, it also fulfills the promise made by President trump when he ran for president for the first time, which will help to achieve re-election this year. On the other hand, the Taliban judged that after the withdrawal of foreign forces from Afghanistan, it would have more voice and strength to participate in the national power competition.

On February 29, in Kabul, the Afghan capital, U.S. Defense Secretary mark esper (front right), Afghan President Ashraf Ghani (front middle) and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg were at a press conference.

Shake hands with others

After signing the agreement, U.S. government special representative for Afghan reconciliation Zalmay Khalilzad and Afghan Taliban political leader Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar made peace with each other with smiles and handshakes.

Under the agreement, the United States will reduce the size of the U.S. military in Afghanistan from 13000 to 8600 within 135 days, and the remaining U.S. and NATO coalition soldiers will leave Afghanistan within 14 months.

In fact, it is also the result of peace talks between the United States and the Taliban that baladar can sign here. Baladar is the co-founder of the Taliban. He was arrested in Karachi, the southern city of Pakistan, in 2010 and released in October 2018. The United States government previously said that Pakistan released baladar at the request of the United States.

Khalilzad is an Afghan American diplomat. During the Bush era, he served as the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations and as the U.S. special representative for reconciliation in Afghanistan since September 2018. He and baladar are the main ethnic Pashtuns in Afghanistan.

U.S. Secretary of state Peng Peio also came to witness the signing ceremony. He called the peace agreement a real test of the Talibans commitment to peace. If we dont take concrete action on our commitments and promises, this agreement will be meaningless and todays good feelings wont last, pompeio stressed

The Afghan government delegation also attended the signing ceremony. But because the Taliban have always called the Afghan government a puppet of the United States, they refuse to talk directly to them. However, it is stipulated in the agreement that the Afghan parties will start internal negotiations on March 10, 2020, and representatives of all parties will discuss the time and manner of a permanent ceasefire.

Before that, the United States put forward a one week reduce violence phase on February 21 to conduct a peace experiment, during which all parties to the conflict exercised restraint and laid the foundation for a final peace agreement.

In an effort to show confidence in the peace test, the U.S. and NATO force commander in Afghanistan Austin Scott Miller and Afghan Defense Minister asadullah Khalid took selfies with the public while patrolling the streets of Kabul. In the end, the results of this experiment are good. Although the violence has not been completely eliminated in this period of time, the atmosphere is much more peaceful than usual.

For the reason why the Taliban are willing to shake hands with the United States, Ma Xiaolin said in an interview with the first financial reporter that the reason is that in the process of power redistribution in Afghanistan in the post American era, the Taliban have a great chance to win, and the United States and the Afghan Taliban have also acknowledged the legitimacy of the latter in a sense.

He explained that the Taliban do not want to be involved in endless wars, hoping to participate in future national governance. As the Taliban is strong enough militarily to control most of Afghanistan and has a considerable public opinion base, the eventual withdrawal of foreign troops is quite beneficial to it.

Ma Xiaolin predicted that if optimistic, the Taliban will be patient with the transition period of more than ten months, wait for the departure of the U.S. - led multinational force, and then negotiate with the Afghan government and other factions for substantive power and profit.

However, Ma is not optimistic about the situation in Afghanistan in the post us era. In his view, the origins and concepts of the Taliban and the democratically elected government are quite different, and the design of the national political and social systems is also quite different. The Taliban want to establish a theocratic state, while the elected government wants to take the road of combining Islam with western democracy and rule of law. The two modes are incompatible. It is inevitable that there will be friction and confrontation, or even the civil war of talking with guns.

U.S. throwing pot

In 2001, the United States launched the war in Afghanistan after the 9.11 terrorist attacks, overthrowing the Taliban regime recognized by the United States as harbouring al Qaeda. However, the Taliban have not been eliminated and are still powerful in Afghanistan, for which the United States has to make other plans.

In 2013, at the request of the United States, the Taliban established a political office in Doha to promote peace talks. Since October 2018, the U.S. government and the Taliban have held multiple rounds of negotiations in Doha. At one time, the two sides approached an agreement in early September 2019. The U.S. military then increased its offensive against the Taliban in Afghanistan, and the Taliban also launched retaliatory actions to restart attacks on Afghan forces and government agencies.

Trump arrived in Afghanistan suddenly on the night of November 28, 2019, which is his first visit to Afghanistan. During the visit, he announced that the United States and the Taliban representatives in Afghanistan are in dialogue, and he expressed his belief that the Taliban are willing to cease fire.

According to statistics, since the start of the war in Afghanistan, the United States has spent $750 billion on the war in Afghanistan, which has killed tens of thousands of Afghan civilians and more than 2400 US troops. It is also the longest war in American history. I want them [the elected Afghan government] to take over again, and we want to save tens of billions of dollars a year, pompeio said earlier

In an interview with the first financial reporter, Ma Xiaolin said that the reason why the United States is willing to withdraw from Afghanistan is because the United States wants to dump the pot. The Taliban dragged the United States into the contemporary Vietnam War battlefield, consuming a lot of American national strength.

He said that the U.S. has implemented strategic contraction since the Obama era. Trump inherited this contraction strategy after taking office, and more attention has been paid to the U.S. self-interest rather than the cosmopolitanism of the past. In this case, it is inevitable to throw the pot in Afghanistan.

(function() {(window. Slotbydup = window. Slotbydup| []). Push ({ID: u5811557, container: ssp_, async: true});}) ()); at the same time, the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan is also in line with Trumps election considerations. During the 2016 U.S. election, trump promised to withdraw U.S. forces in Afghanistan and end the war in Afghanistan. After his election, he approved the deployment of additional troops to Afghanistan, assisted in the training of Afghan government forces, acted as advisers, assisted in counter-terrorism and combated extreme armed forces, with the aim of achieving overwhelming military victory to prepare for the withdrawal. Now, trump, who is seeking re-election, is eager to explain to voters by withdrawing more troops from Afghanistan before the November presidential election. To this end, Ma Xiaolin told the first financial reporter that trump is a U.S. president who attaches great importance to the fulfillment of his promises. His promises to the voters are hard to achieve. Before that, he even wanted to invite the Taliban leaders to the White House for talks. Trump chose to sign a peace agreement at this time to support the election. Source: First Financial Editor: Yu changzong ue5e5 nbj11145

At the same time, the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan is also in line with Trumps election considerations. During the 2016 U.S. election, trump promised to withdraw U.S. forces in Afghanistan and end the war in Afghanistan. After his election, he approved the deployment of additional troops to Afghanistan, assisted in the training of Afghan government forces, acted as advisers, assisted in counter-terrorism and combated extreme armed forces, with the aim of achieving overwhelming military victory to prepare for the withdrawal.

Now, trump, who is seeking re-election, is eager to explain to voters by withdrawing more troops from Afghanistan before the November presidential election. To this end, Ma Xiaolin told the first financial reporter that trump is a U.S. president who attaches great importance to the fulfillment of his promises. His promises to the voters are hard to achieve. Before that, he even wanted to invite the Taliban leaders to the White House for talks. Trump chose to sign a peace agreement at this time to support the election.