To judge the development of the new energy automobile industry objectively, we need to face calmly and think rationally. From the positive and negative aspects, from the positive and negative aspects, we need to make a scientific analysis of the development of the new energy automobile industry and give an objective judgment. It can be concluded that with the vigorous development of new technology revolution and energy revolution and the rational return of the domestic market, the new energy automobile industry must have opportunities far greater than challenges, and the development trend will still be good for a long time. The bright moment when the new energy automobile enters thousands of households is in the near future.
Five achievements and six deficiencies
After more than ten years of development, new energy vehicles have made great progress. In terms of scale, Chinas new energy vehicle production and marketing scale in 2019 exceeded 1.2 million, with an annual compound growth rate of 64.8%, ranking first in the world for five consecutive years. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in Chinas automobile market has reached 4.7%, which is far higher than that of the EU and Japan. The number of new energy vehicles in Chinas automobile market has also reached 4.19 million, accounting for 54.5% of the worlds total, which has laid a solid foundation for the systematic development of the industry.
From the perspective of industrial chain, a number of internationally competitive new energy vehicles, three electric (battery, electric motor and electric control) systems and charging pile enterprises have emerged in China. They have rapidly grown into leaders in their respective fields, and the whole industrial chain has become fully mature. Among them, the battery industry is the most prominent. There are many world-class enterprises emerging in the upstream raw materials, power battery manufacturing and battery recycling of lithium batteries, which provide many opportunities for Chinese manufacturing and even for China to create going global.
The battery specific energy, vehicle life and other key technical indicators have made remarkable progress. With the gradual overcoming of technical barriers such as the rising of fast charging temperature, the low constant current ratio and the poor safety, the battery products with a range of more than 200km within 10 minutes of charging will be widely used to effectively alleviate mileage anxiety. Electrification is also accelerating the integration and development with intelligence, networking and sharing, enabling the transformation of the automobile industry and the future development of the travel society. According to the data of China Automobile Talent Research Association, the total number of new energy vehicle practitioners in China is about 850000, of which R & D personnel account for 12%, significantly higher than the overall level of the automobile industry. This shows that we have some leading positions in the industrial chain, and there are advantageous areas.
On the consumer side, change is happening. With the continuous expansion of the base plate of new energy vehicles, the continuous improvement of the endurance mileage, as well as the better power performance and lower use cost compared with traditional fuel vehicles, the public recognition of new energy vehicles is further improved. In the first tier cities such as beishangguang, driven by the inclination of new energy vehicle license plate and the priority of right of way, a large number of iron powder of new energy vehicles have been cultivated. For the main consumers and emerging industry practitioners of the post-85 and post-90 generations, new energy vehicles can show environmental protection and personality elements, and also have a stronger attraction.
These changes benefit from top-down support. For example, the central government has supported 115.5 billion yuan of new energy subsidies over the years, and the local government has also provided huge subsidies in proportion. At the same time, governments at all levels have done a lot in promoting demonstration operation and infrastructure construction. Of course, at the same time of progress, as a new energy vehicle industry in the initial stage of development, there are still many problems and deficiencies.
First of all, the industry is greatly affected by policies, especially subsidies. Secondly, the speed of cost reduction of the whole industry chain and other policies such as the double integral policy that replace the subsidy policy cannot make up for the decline. Therefore, once the subsidy policy suddenly declines, the market growth rate will change from positive to negative. For example, in the second half of last year, the sales volume of new energy vehicles fell sharply, with a negative growth of 4% in the whole year. The ice and fire double sky accompanied by the emergency brake has a great impact on the industry in the short term.
Secondly, the infrastructure construction such as charging pile is relatively lagging behind. Charging infrastructure, as one of the most important factors in the promotion of new energy vehicles, is still facing a shortage. In 2019, the total number of public charging piles and private charging piles in China is about 1.22 million, an increase of 50.8% year on year, and the ratio of vehicle piles is 3.4:1. However, considering the growth trend of new energy market, the coverage radius and charging speed of charging piles, it is necessary to continue to accelerate the construction of high-quality public charging network to achieve the dynamic balance of vehicle piles.
Third, our battery cost is still high. At present, the battery cost still accounts for more than 50% of the total vehicle cost, which is far higher than the engine cost of traditional fuel vehicles. It is estimated that the battery cost will be close to $100 / kWh around 2025, and the total cost of ownership of pure electric vehicles will be basically the same as that of traditional fuel vehicles, but the first purchase cost will still be higher than that of traditional fuel vehicles.
Fourth, the policy of urban purchase restriction restricts the further promotion of new energy vehicles. The state has issued a policy to promote consumption, requiring all regions to cancel the restrictions on new energy vehicles. However, some cities still consider easing traffic pressure and other factors, and the restrictions have not been lifted, which to some extent inhibited the release of some rigid needs.
Fifth, the proportion of green power is low. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, taking the energy production structure of China in 2018 as an example, raw coal accounts for about 68%, hydropower, nuclear power, wind power and other green energy accounts for about 19%. The power consumption of new energy vehicles mainly comes from non green power, which affects the full play of its energy conservation and environmental protection effects.
Sixth, the utilization rate of production capacity is low and repeated investment is serious. According to incomplete statistics, at present, the capacity of new energy vehicles built and under construction in China is more than 10 million, and the capacity and sales volume are seriously inverted. In the next step, backward production capacity will be forced to clear, and industry elimination and integration will be accelerated.
Inspiration from Tesla
How to solve these problems in the early development of new energy vehicles? Tesla company has given us a lot of inspiration, from the initial time when Tesla company replaced 18650 batteries for t-zero prototype cars, leading the era of pure electric vehicles with 480km long endurance, to the time when the market value of the company is close to 160 billion US dollars, ranking the second largest automobile manufacturer in the world, only 15 years ago. The core competitiveness behind Tesla can be summarized as product, brand, entrepreneurship, industrial ecology and so on.
The success of automobile enterprises, without exception, is the success of their automobile products. Tesla is not only an automobile company, but also a technology company. With the rapid development of AI, big data and Internet, it provides a good foundation for the software and hardware update of electric vehicles. Tesla directly uses software to remotely upgrade car related functions by optimizing artificial intelligence algorithm, improving the computing power and electronic control technology level of autopilot chip, accumulating a large amount of real road data, and continuously iterates from the perspectives of enhancing auxiliary driving, safety and improving experience fluency and response speed to achieve a high combination of software and hardware and give more life to the car Power.
Tesla is a successful brand case. Tesla has done a great job in shaping itself as an innovative leader in electric vehicles, which is transforming into a high level of consumer awareness and recognition. Tesla brand building has traces of typical American technology companies like apple and Google. It understands the law of information communication in the Internet era. First, it doesnt advertise, second, it doesnt invite movie stars to speak for it, and third, it doesnt invite public relations companies. It achieves zero cost communication. All executives open social software accounts, actively interact with each other while sharing experiences, and close the distance with customers; they do not give up all opportunities to share the news that Hollywood stars, NBA stars and other successful people, as well as the Internet elites such as Chinas Xiaomi Lei Jun and Jingdong Liu qiangdong, buy and use Tesla, and celebrities have become compulsory carriers.
In this way, Tesla successfully positioned its brand as the subverter of the automobile industry, leading the leap of automobile concept; borrowed the title of Silicon Valley Iron Man of Founder mask, and successfully personified the product. By creating the legendary charm of human, Tesla indirectly created the high up image of car and easily moved the fans attention to people On the Tesla. Now, in addition to meeting the needs of transportation, people who drive Tesla will be given emotional values such as success, technology, environmental protection and cool. This kind of self satisfaction has become a symbol of self-esteem and independence in China and the United States, especially among the young generation of high net worth people, which is also a very difficult place for traditional car enterprises.
In this regard, Musks own entrepreneurship has played a great role. Musk is not a conformist, as can be seen from his early entrepreneurial experiences such as PayPal and SpaceX. When operating Tesla, he often launched the crazy mode to fight back all the doubters and opponents in a high-profile manner, to fight back those journalists who cover their ears and steal the bell to report the fire of electric vehicles and ignore the fire data of fuel vehicles, to build Tesla into a brave fighter to defend the electric vehicles, so that non target consumers have also turned to powder on the road. Teslas unusual entrepreneurial spirit enables the R & D team to think ahead and find new ways to make amazing designs, such as leading autopilot, beautiful eagle wing door, super charging technology, etc.
But the reason that Teslas market value exceeds that of many car companies lies in its business layout. Tesla has built four major business models around the car, from the dense super charging piles to the energy storage scheme, to the cooperation with Panasonics battery, and then to the transformation of the car machine into a car central computer, and achieved collaborative development. For example, in-depth cooperation with Panasonic battery to build a super factory, the cost of model 3 cell is about $110 / kWh, lower than other mainstream cell manufacturers. And the autopilot chip has been loaded, becoming the only automobile manufacturer with the ability of autopilot chip R & D and design.
There is no doubt that Teslas entry into China and model 3s domestic production have brought pressure and challenges to Chinas automobile industry, but in the long run, it is an opportunity to invigorate a pool of spring water and drive the development of a number of local supporting enterprises. Like the household appliance industry, it has forced Chinas relevant enterprises to increase innovation, broaden their thinking, open their mind to compete, learn, develop with foreign enterprises, and in the future Transcendence.
Five thoughts on becoming powerful
In order to realize its own characteristic road in the world, Chinas new energy vehicles should first solve the route problem. I believe that the pure electric route is mainly for passenger cars, hybrid power is the necessary transition route for energy substitution, and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles mainly focus on commercial vehicles. The reason is that pure electric vehicles have high energy efficiency, low use cost and relatively mature infrastructure construction, which are more suitable for the wide range application of short and medium distance passenger vehicles and light vehicles. Because of the advantages of long endurance and easy access to fuel energy, hybrid vehicles will occupy an important position in the automobile market for a long time. Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles have the advantages of high energy-saving efficiency, fast hydrogenation speed, low noise, no pollutant emission, etc., but at present, they are restricted by the bottleneck of hydrogen energy storage and transportation difficulties, imperfect infrastructure, and suitable for large buses, heavy trucks and other high-power, long-distance fixed route scenarios.
For enterprises, we still have a lot to improve. As a vehicle enterprise, we should pay attention to the technical innovation of each technical route of new energy vehicles, focus on key technologies, increase investment in research and development, further do a good job in the loading application of advanced technologies such as module free batteries, flat line high-power motors, and high integrated control systems, and steadily form the core support. Secondly, facing the challenge of post subsidy era, we should take cost performance as the starting point to improve the product strength, highlight the unique advantages of new energy, refine the market classification, focus on the private market, develop the market by model, region and crowd, further seize the opportunity of electrification in the public service field, and gradually realize the substitution of electrification for fuel vehicles.
In the final analysis, the strength of the automobile industry is still the strength of the industrial chain. We need to hold the upstream suppliers such as power battery, motor, high-power hydrogen fuel cell system and automatic driving equipment with one hand, advocate the suppliers early intervention service (EVI) and tailor-made products, and hold the downstream service enterprises such as charging pile, travel platform and energy enterprise with one hand to penetrate and cooperate. At the same time, we should make full use of Chinas and even overseas high-quality educational resources, scientific research achievements and professional advantages in personnel training. On the one hand, we should strengthen the personnel training system. On the other hand, we should take the market as the guide, promote the combination of industry, education and research, jointly build an industry open and cooperative ecosystem, build an industry community with wisdom and subcontracting, and make a good cake.
We must attach great importance to the difficulty of brand building of Chinese automobile. The brand determines the price range, and only products recognized by the market can break through the brand. When upgrading new energy products, domestic automobile enterprises can make efforts to build high-end brand, bring users new experience, realize brand differentiation and continuous upgrading, and establish golden signboard with the help of new channel display, brand concept promotion and derivative value-added services Pull and other foreign monks sing to the stage. Secondly, we should explore the incubation of new business models to empower the whole industrial chain. Vehicle enterprises should become policy makers of new business and new models, such as taxi power exchange operation, exploration of b-end customers of network car hailing, electric separation mode of private cars, production, storage, application and development of hydrogen energy resources, etc., to leverage the new four modernizations with business model, to do a good job in demonstration application and promotion, and to promote the integration, innovation and development of new energy vehicle industry.
In terms of new energy vehicle policies, the state should continue to play a guiding role in the development of new energy vehicles. The new energy automobile industry is gradually changing from policy oriented to market-oriented. Industry experience tells us that a stable external environment with little ups and downs is conducive to the healthy growth of the new energy automobile industry. At present, the most urgent need of the new energy industry is to stabilize expectations, which means to stabilize policies. The scientificity and continuity of policy-making can be further strengthened, such as issuing non subsidizing support policies as early as possible, improving the implementation efficiency of the double points policy, etc.; in view of the current problems of long cycle of new energy vehicle industry standard formulation, insufficient pre research, and blank application standards of some subdivision models, the government should strengthen the foresight of standard and regulation formulation, and formulate pure electric terminal as soon as possible Logistics vehicles and other product standards; in the face of the pain point of infrastructure, we should continue to increase the incentive for the construction of charging piles and charging stations, encourage local governments to innovate in energy prices, construction land, business models and other aspects, and improve charging convenience; in the promotion of energy green electricity, we should encourage and guide the use of clean energy, and establish electric vehicles, charging piles, power grids and In terms of the traceability relationship between photovoltaic power stations and the formulation of consumption policies, on the basis of existing policies, it is particularly necessary to increase the promotion and support of new energy commercial vehicles, logistics vehicles, express vehicles and other fields with broad application prospects.
Chinas basic position as the worlds largest automobile production and consumption country has not changed. Chinas automobile industry is speeding up its transformation, and the fundamentals of long-term sound and stable development have not changed. In the past decade, the development of the new energy automobile industry is changing from quantitative to qualitative. To speed up the pace of high-quality development, the voice of the declining industry will become smaller and smaller, and eventually it will fail. As long as we seize the opportunity, have the courage to innovate, implement scientific strategies and make contributions for a long time, we will never fail to fulfill our mission and realize the dream of a strong automobile country!