Epidemic prevention and control debt issued nearly 200 billion yuan a month in the industry: pay attention to the opportunity of stock debt

category:Finance
 Epidemic prevention and control debt issued nearly 200 billion yuan a month in the industry: pay attention to the opportunity of stock debt


In February 1st, the novel coronavirus infection prevention and control notice was issued jointly by the five ministries and commissions such as the peoples Bank of China and other ministries and commissions on further strengthening financial support for the prevention and control of new coronavirus infection, emphasizing the improvement of service efficiency of bond issuance and so on. The funds raised mainly are used for epidemic prevention and control, and financial bonds, asset backed securities and corporate credit bonds issued by financial institutions and enterprises with heavier epidemic situation are registered. Line green channel.

According to the statistics of Huachuang securities, the growth rate of the issuance scale of epidemic prevention and control debt continued to accelerate after the festival. The single day scale accounted for about 30% of the issuance scale of non-financial industry debt in the same day, and the industries with high proportion included food and beverage, transportation, non-bank finance, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, etc. Epidemic prevention and control debt is issued in large-scale industries such as transportation, comprehensive, architectural decoration, etc.

Distribution source of epidemic prevention and control bond industry: Huatai Securities

At present, the disclosed epidemic prevention and control debt has four characteristics. According to Anxin securities, in terms of the nature of enterprises, the 22 issuers are mainly state-owned enterprises (15), with high overall credit qualifications, accounting for 68% of the subjects with AAA rating; in terms of bond types, the issued epidemic prevention and control bonds are mainly ultra short-term financing; in terms of fund use, all epidemic prevention and control bonds are based on the purpose of borrowing new to repay old or epidemic prevention related, Generally, there are both; investors have a high recognition of the epidemic prevention and control bond market, and the issuing interest rate is generally significantly lower than the nominal interest rate of the same type of bonds previously issued by enterprises.

Song Qinghui, a famous economist, said in an interview with Zhongxin Jingwei client that the difference between epidemic prevention and control bonds and other credit bonds is the epidemic prevention label, and the issuance of epidemic prevention and control bonds may be further accelerated in the future.

How does the market view the epidemic prevention and control debt?

At present, in the primary market, there is a situation that the subscription funds bid to the lower limit of individual bonds, for example, 20 Kelun (epidemic prevention and control debt) scp001 and 20 Kyushu Tong (epidemic prevention and control debt) scp002 have the same face value as the lower limit of subscription. Compared with the secondary market, according to the statistics of China Merchants Securities, the issuance interest rate of epidemic prevention bonds is basically lower than the secondary yield of the same grade and the same term five days before the issuance. The configuration of the heat is obvious.

Jiang Chao, a macro bond researcher at Haitong Securities, said in his analysis article, we have compared the issuance interest rate of epidemic prevention and control bonds with the average Chinese bond yield of comparable stock bonds of the same subject in the five working days before the issuance date. It can be observed that the issuance rate of epidemic prevention and control bonds is low, and the issuance rate of most epidemic prevention and control bonds is much lower than the valuation yield of comparable bonds.

To this end, song Qinghui told Zhongxin Jingwei client that the issuance of epidemic prevention and control bonds is hot, and the factors of low coupon rate pricing mainly lie in policy orientation. This kind of new debt form is mainly based on public welfare undertakings, such as to supplement the demand of working capital tension caused by the epidemic, of course, it can also borrow new to repay old to repay the debts that are about to expire. Meanwhile, the novel coronavirus pneumonia has caused great impact on cash flow of many enterprises. Because the epidemic prevention and control bonds are issued at lower interest rates, the regulatory authorities also open up easy access to green channels, which is conducive to reducing the financing cost of enterprises and alleviating short-term debt pressure.

Zhou Guannan, chief analyst of Huachuang securities, pointed out that the policy support of epidemic prevention and control debt is more focused on the front-end registration and issuance. In terms of debt repayment guarantee in the later stage, the regulatory authorities have no specific policy support rules, so there is basically no difference between the debt repayment risk indicators and debt repayment guarantee measures of epidemic prevention and control debt and ordinary credit debt, which are all dependent on the enterprise itself Blood production capacity.

It is worth noting that Zhou Guannan added that during the epidemic period, the issuer made use of the high efficiency of the issuance and examination of epidemic prevention and control debt and the current environment with abundant liquidity to issue bonds intensively, and there may be increased financial pressure in the short and medium term.

Fu Lichun, director of Northeast Securities research, said in an interview with Zhongxin Jingwei client that at present, the market liquidity is relatively abundant and the central bank has injected more popularity. Behind this bond, there are multiple credit holdings, with a high credit rating and a short cycle, which are favored by investors. GUI Haoming, chief market expert of Shenwan Hongyuan Research Institute, said to Zhongxin Jingwei client, the emergence of this bond is more to express everyones enthusiasm to fight against the epidemic, while the bond itself has low profits, less volume, and a certain degree of security guarantee. At the same time, enterprises can get a positive evaluation from it, so enterprises are more willing to participate, but its economic significance is not significant

The fixed income team of Huatai Securities believes that in terms of risk prevention and control, if the subsequent raised funds used for epidemic prevention and control related expenditures are significantly lower than the scale disclosed in the prospectus, there may be the situation that the issuer makes use of the system to facilitate financing arbitrage, and similar moral risks need to be followed up. For some subjects with poor recognition, the epidemic prevention and control debt only reflects the difference in raised funds, and can not significantly improve the financing success rate and recognition, and there may still be liquidity pressure in the future.

Now, there are signs of success in the early stage of the issuance of epidemic prevention bonds. Yin Ruizhe, chief bond analyst of China Merchants Securities, reminds investors that this is not only the embodiment of institutional support for epidemic prevention and control, but also the result of mismatch between supply and demand after the holiday. Next, dont focus too much on the epidemic prevention debt itself, but more on the price difference game opportunities of other stock bonds of the same subject, especially the stock bonds of private enterprises participating in the epidemic prevention debt financing.