The first war launched by the United States in the 21st century, and the longest war ever launched by the United States, will thus lose.
Of course, the Americans will certainly argue: who said I lost, we signed a peace agreement, is to leave peacefully.
On the surface, its true. After 19 years of bloody war, the United States and the Taliban shook hands and made peace. On the afternoon of February 29, the United States and the Taliban signed a peace agreement in Qatar.
A historic agreement.
But in the 19 years of bloody war, as the only superpower in the world, the United States has paid 2400 young soldiers lives, resulting in more than 20000 soldiers disability and more than $750 billion of war expenses. In the end, the Taliban did not collapse, still controlled most of Afghanistans territory, and now it will make a comeback. Instead, the United States is withdrawing.
Who on earth won? Who lost?
But America is more helpless.
The 19 years of war have increasingly proved that Afghanistan is a great quagmire.
Keep fighting. The United States cant defeat the Taliban.
Even if there are more advanced drones, more powerful cruise missiles, and the Taliban hiding in the mountains, Americans are helpless.
There is a price for advanced weapons. American soldiers are more expensive, but the Taliban cant fight to death. On the contrary, they have increased their counter offensive against the United States. In the past 2019, dozens of US soldiers have been killed, the largest US casualty in Afghanistan in years.
Let alone one 19 years, or several 19 years, Americans cant win.
What about winning for Americans? Can we still send troops to stay in Afghanistan? Thats a living target waiting to die.
The United States wanted to withdraw, but it couldnt.
Gray away, face where to put. Whats more, the Taliban didnt give Americans a good face at all.
Originally, in September last year, the United States and the Taliban had nine rounds of negotiations, and could immediately sign a peace agreement.
But in September of that year, the Taliban launched another attack, and American soldiers were killed. Its trampling on the red line of the United States. Trump suddenly gets angry: stop talking!
There is no bargaining chip on the negotiation table. The Americans want to get back more points on the battlefield.
The United States will fight again, but the Taliban there are more powerful: Americans, you must be more regretful for doing so.
In the next few months, there was another big fight. But what makes Americans helpless is that the indiscriminate bombing of the Taliban did not work. On the contrary, the largest U.S. military base in Afghanistan, Bagram Air Force base, was attacked by the Taliban.
In January this year, although the United States and Iran were at each others throes, the biggest loss suffered by the United States was in Afghanistan. The Taliban have killed more American soldiers.
Trump should have a set of accounts even if he is impulsive and adventurous.
The red line of the Americans has become a dotted line. After all, everything on their faces is secondary. In the end, lets talk about it.
So, on the last day of February 2020, the United States and the Taliban signed a peace agreement.
For Americans, the lesson is painful.
Originally, there was no suspense about the war. One is the only superpower in the world, the other is a guerrilla regime. Moreover, at that time, the United States stood on the moral high ground and avenged the 9 / 11 incident. Whoever sheltered bin Laden was the enemy.
The Taliban didnt pick up the situation.
According to the Afghan tribal tradition, bin Laden and Al Qaeda are their guests, and they cannot be expelled. So he refused to hand over bin Laden. As a result, the angry Bush administration launched a war against Afghanistan.
In the beginning, it really destroyed. In the winter of 2001, the Taliban were expelled from Kabul. But the United States never thought that the war was just beginning, a dozen years ago.
Also in 2001, I went to Afghanistan and started my first war career. There is no end to the joys and sorrows.
American nightmares seem doomed from the beginning. At that time in Kabul, the city was in the hands of the United States and the allies, but in the surrounding mountains, there were Taliban camps.
Its amazing how fierce the mountain people are. The Afghans are proud to tell me that this is the tomb of the Empire. They have defeated Two Empires: the British Empire and the Soviet Union. They are sure to defeat the third empire, the United States.
Of course, the Taliban itself has been criticized by the international community, such as extremely conservative religious ideas, especially the imprisonment of women, and the extreme acts of destroying Bamiyan Buddha.
But Afghanistan is Afghanistan, the Taliban is the Taliban, the Taliban get the support of the people at the bottom, strong guerrilla capabilities, so that the United States has to accept the reality.
After signing the peace agreement, trump still lamented in the White House: the Taliban are great fighters, great fighters, dont believe it, just ask the Soviets
The United States claps its hands to withdraw, but for Afghanistan, for the whole Central Asian pattern, it means a new bloodbath.
After all, in Kabul, there is also the American backed Afghan regime. How can the Taliban get along with the Ghani regime?
This is not only reminiscent of the tragedy after the withdrawal of the Soviet Union.
Najibura was the leader of the puppet regime of Afghanistan supported by the Soviet Union at that time. After the withdrawal of the Soviet Union, the resistance immediately attacked Kabul, and the najibura regime collapsed. He himself had to hide in the United Nations Office.
The resistance groups were polite, at best, but the Taliban, which followed, were not at all polite.
On September 27, 1996, the Taliban soldiers who attacked Kabul finally found najibura. According to what the Kabul people told me at that time, the poor former leader was executed in an insulting way. He was stuck with money in his mouth, his genitals were cut off, and then he was shot to death. After his death, the body was hung on the lamp post in the city square for a long time to be shown to the public
The brutal execution of najibulla also showed the world the horror of the Taliban.
After 19 years, the Taliban will surely enter Kabul again.
In the end, not much. Recently, the focus of the world is not in Afghanistan. Just like Trumps press conference, reporters asked several Afghan questions, more about the spread of the new coronavirus.
The Americans are about to run away. The lives of the Afghans are beyond the care of the Americans.
A few regrets:
First, even a strong Empire has its own weaknesses.
Weapons are very important, but the United States, which has the most advanced weapons in the world, launched a 19 year war and paid 2400 lives, but still failed to defeat the Taliban. In this world, the wicked have their own mills. Seeing a picture of the Taliban, a westerner commented that they never learn English, but they taught more than 40 countries a lesson!
Second, a war is over, but a bloodbath is coming.
As in the Soviet Unions withdrawal, the guerrillas took Kabul, and then there was a more tragic civil war. How does the powerful Taliban divide power from the Kabul regime? What will happen to those Afghans who have worked with the Americans? The Americans left another mess, a new bloodbath.
Third, the people are the most pitiful.
In 2001, when Kabul airport was destroyed, we landed at Bagram Air Force base. On the road to Kabul, there are a lot of mines all over the wilderness, and there are also the wreckage of destroyed tanks and artillery on the side of the road. Seeing the people fleeing in panic, there is a deep sorrow: its better to be a peace dog than a rioter. This is the ancient language of weeping blood.
We are not living in a peaceful world, but we are fortunate to live in a peaceful country.
Although we are now in another war without gunpowder, we have seen the dawn of victory.