The epidemic suppresses the demand of nonferrous industry, which will recover gradually in the second quarter

 The epidemic suppresses the demand of nonferrous industry, which will recover gradually in the second quarter

The agency believes that the overseas epidemic is rampant, dragging down the price of nonferrous metals. According to CITIC futures, the epidemic has spread to more than 20% of the world. At present, the overseas control idea is not clear. The fear has caused heavy losses to asset prices, with copper price mainly under pressure. The price of stainless steel continues to decline, while nickel price remains weak and volatile. The momentum of zinc price decline has slowed down, with short-term zinc price or temporary low adjustment.

6.9 billion capital outflow from nonferrous metals

As of February 26, the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association surveyed 241 common nonferrous metal smelting and copper aluminum production enterprises, with an operating rate of 90.5%, 7.1 percentage points higher than that of February 19, the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association said Tuesday.

It is understood that during the epidemic period, common non-ferrous metal smelting kept normal production, and the capacity utilization rate of common non-ferrous metal smelting products was more than 85%. As of February 26, the utilization rate of copper smelting capacity is 81.5%, aluminum smelting capacity is 87.6%, and lead-zinc smelting capacity is 80.2%. The capacity utilization rate of copper and aluminum production enterprises returned to work gradually picked up. The capacity utilization rate of copper and aluminum processing enterprises returned to work on February 26 recovered to 59.0% for the first time, 12.9 percentage points higher than that on February 19.

Chujiang new materials (002171), which is engaged in copper processing business, disclosed an institutional survey on 27th, which also showed that the resumption of work was significantly accelerated. The company pointed out that since February 10, the company and its major subsidiaries have started to return to work. At present, they are on the right track, entering the stage of accelerating production, and military enterprises are also accelerating delivery. The impact of the epidemic on leading enterprises is relatively small and facing opportunities. Due to the change of market, the industry will speed up the industry integration, and small enterprises will speed up their exit. As the leader of the copper strip industry, the company has sufficient capital and capital. It is also planned to carry out restructuring in 2020 to speed up the industry concentration.

However, with the epidemic spreading over more than 20% of the world, the idea of overseas control is not clear at present, and asset prices have been hit hard by worries.

On February 28, the Shenwan nonferrous metals index fell 6.59%, second only to the computer sectors 7.09% decline. In the nonferrous sector, 13 stocks including Huayou cobalt, Xinjiang Zhonghe and Hengdian dongci fell and stopped, 82 stocks fell by more than 5%, and only Yian technology and Hesheng shares gained. The market value of 119 shares in the nonferrous metals sector evaporated by 99.3 billion yuan in a single day on the 28th.

In terms of capital, wind data shows that on February 28, the net outflow of main capital of non-ferrous metal plate reached 6.939 billion yuan, ranking fourth among the 28 first-class industries in Shenwan, next to electronics (19.191 billion yuan), computer (14.13 billion yuan) and non-bank finance (11.367 billion yuan). In terms of stocks, Shandong golds main net outflow reached 277 million yuan, ranking first, and Huayou cobalt, Tiantong, Hengdian dongci, Youyan new material, Zijin Mining and other funds also exceeded 100 million yuan.

Shandong gold fell 5.88% to close at 33.92 yuan on Tuesday. Despite the global spread of health events and panic in financial markets, the impact of safe haven demand on gold price is limited in the near future. Spot gold fell $7 to $1623.46 an ounce on the short-term 28, the biggest drop of 1.33%.

According to the analysis, in view of the inevitable impact on the global economy, which may impact the demand for physical gold, investors remain cautious about the further rise of gold, some investors take profits, and the current collapse of commodities, commodity attributes also make gold under pressure.

It is expected to recover gradually in the second quarter

Nonferrous metals sector has been strong since February 3, when a share fell sharply. From February 4 to 27, the Shenwan nonferrous metal index rose 15.13% in total. In the sector, the shares of Hesheng and Changzhou Aluminum Co., Ltd. doubled in the same period, the shares of Zhongfei and Chifeng gold rose by more than 60%, and more than 30 shares of nonferrous industry rose by more than 20% in the same period. Resumption of work and price expectations are one of the reasons for the recent strength of non-ferrous plate.

The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association pointed out that during the epidemic period, the production of major smelting enterprises such as copper, aluminum, lead and zinc was not disturbed by the epidemic, and they continued to maintain normal production. However, most copper and aluminum processing enterprises, as well as enterprises in the downstream consumption fields such as real estate, battery, electroplating, air conditioning and electronic products, will delay the start of construction, resulting in a temporary decline in metal demand and smelting enterprises The inventory of non-ferrous metals in the industry and society increased, the price fell, and the business operation was difficult. The start-up of collection and storage can effectively alleviate the operation difficulties of non-ferrous metal production enterprises, and provide reserves for the downstream industries to resume production.

With the development of the epidemic situation, how to judge the future trend of non-ferrous industry? The Great Wall Securities pointed out novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic situation is basically under control at present, but overseas is spreading. Considering that overseas countries or population density is very large or medical conditions are insufficient, and local governments can not restrict population mobility as domestic compulsion, once the epidemic spread, it will have a great negative impact on society and economy.

Jia Xingxing, vice president and Secretary General of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, said that according to the preliminary analysis and prediction, the trend of stabilization and recovery of nonferrous metals industry in the first quarter was interrupted, resulting in the decline of product price, the rise of cost and the decline of enterprise economic benefits. With the effective control of the epidemic, downstream consumer enterprises began to return to work and production, and the demand improved. In order to alleviate the impact of the epidemic and release more favorable policies, the operation of non-ferrous metals is expected to recover gradually in the second quarter. In the second half of the year, the output and demand of products, investment in fixed assets, market prices and enterprise benefits reflecting the operation of the non-ferrous metals industry are expected to return to normal water Ping.