Interpretation of PMI by the Bureau of Statistics: the impact of the epidemic is obvious, and the import and export pressure of manufacturing industry is increasing

category:Finance
 Interpretation of PMI by the Bureau of Statistics: the impact of the epidemic is obvious, and the import and export pressure of manufacturing industry is increasing


On February 29, 2020, the service industry survey center of the National Bureau of statistics and China Federation of logistics and procurement released the China procurement manager index. Zhao Qinghe, Senior Statistician of the service industry investigation center of the National Bureau of statistics, interpreted this.

Novel coronavirus pneumonia was the main factor affecting Chinas purchasing managers index in February 2020. The manufacturing industry PMI was 35.7%, down 14.3 percentage points from last month, and the non manufacturing business activity index was 29.6%, down 24.5 percentage points from last month. At the same time, the survey results show that with the overall promotion of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development by the Party Central Committee and the State Council, the recovery rate of enterprises is picking up rapidly, and production and operation activities are recovering in an orderly manner. As of February 25, 78.9% of the enterprises surveyed by purchasing managers in China had returned to work, of which 85.6% were large and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises.

1u3001 Purchasing managers index of manufacturing industry shrank significantly

In February, affected by the epidemic, the manufacturing PMI was 35.7%, down sharply from last month. The main characteristics of manufacturing PMI this month: first, the industries that guarantee the basic peoples livelihood are relatively less affected. PMI of 21 manufacturing industries fell into the contraction range this month, but different industries were affected differently. Among them, the PMI of chemical fiber, general equipment, special equipment, automobile and other industries fell below 30.0%; with the support of stable production and supply policy, the PMI of agricultural and sideline food processing, food, wine, beverage, tea and other industries that can meet the basic needs of the peoples life remained above 42.0%, and the PMI of pharmaceutical manufacturing industry that can provide health and medical insurance was 39.7%, which was higher than the overall level of manufacturing industry The impact is relatively small. Second, the decline of new order index is smaller than that of production index. The production index and new order index were 27.8% and 29.3% respectively, down 23.5 and 22.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the new order index was 1.5 percentage points higher than the production index, indicating that the demand of manufacturing industry was relatively good. Among the 21 industries investigated, the new order index of 15 industries such as agricultural and sideline food processing, food and beverage refined tea, medicine and so on is higher than the production index, especially the new order index of agricultural and sideline food processing industry is still in the expansion range. Third, the import and export pressure of manufacturing industry has increased. The new export order index and import index were 28.7% and 31.9% respectively, down 20.0 and 17.1 percentage points from the previous month. Some survey enterprises reported that the situation of order cancellation and delayed delivery increased due to the impact of the epidemic. Fourth, PMI of large, medium and small enterprises generally fell back. The PMI of large, medium and small enterprises was 36.3%, 35.5% and 34.1% respectively, 14.1, 14.6 and 14.5 percentage points lower than that of last month.

In February, the non manufacturing business activity index was 29.6%, down 24.5 percentage points from the previous month, which was severely impacted by the epidemic.

The service industry fell back. The service business activity index was 30.1%, down 23.0 percentage points from last month. In the 21 industries investigated, 19 of them have business activity index in the shrinking range, but the financial industry business activity index is 50.1%, which remains in the expanding range, playing an important role in epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development. Although the business activity index of Telecom and Internet software industry has fallen, it is significantly better than the overall level of service industry, with the support of new business forms and new technologies such as cloud office, online education and telemedicine, which are 13.2 and 11.3 percentage points higher than the business activity index of service industry respectively. The demand for consumer industries with strong personnel aggregation, such as transportation, accommodation and catering, tourism, and residential services, has plummeted, with the business activity index falling below 20.0%.

3u3001 At present, the recovery rate of enterprises is picking up rapidly, which will promote the rise of purchasing manager index in March

In February, the comprehensive PMI output index was 28.9%, 24.1 percentage points lower than last month, and the production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises slowed down significantly. The manufacturing production index and non manufacturing business activity index, which constitute the comprehensive PMI output index, are 27.8% and 29.6% respectively.

Although the outbreak of novel coronavirus pneumonia has a great impact on the production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises in the short term, the epidemic situation has been initially curbed under the firm leadership of Comrade Xi Jinping as the core. The negative effects on production are gradually weakening, and the recovery rate of enterprises has risen rapidly and market confidence has been steadily restored. According to the survey of purchasing managers, the return to work rate of large and medium-sized enterprises will rise to 90.8% by the end of March, of which the manufacturing industry will be 94.7%, up 11.9% and 9.1% respectively from the current level. Recently, a series of policy measures have been implemented, such as tax reduction and fee reduction, financial services, rent reduction and employment subsidy, especially to support small and medium-sized micro enterprises to overcome difficulties, which will effectively relieve the difficulties brought by the epidemic to the production and operation of enterprises, further boost the confidence of enterprises and accelerate the pace of resumption of production. It is expected that Chinas purchasing manager index will improve in March.