Chinas official manufacturing PMI fell 14.3 percentage points in February from last month

category:Finance
 Chinas official manufacturing PMI fell 14.3 percentage points in February from last month


In February 2020, affected by the epidemic, Chinas manufacturing PMI was 35.7%, down 14.3 percentage points from last month.

In terms of enterprise scale, the PMI of large, medium and small enterprises was 36.3%, 35.5% and 34.1% respectively, 14.1, 14.6 and 14.5 percentage points lower than that of last month.

According to the classification index, the five classification indexes of manufacturing PMI are all below the critical point.

The production index was 27.8%, down 23.5 percentage points from last month, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing activity.

The raw material inventory index was 33.9%, down 13.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decrease in the main raw material inventory of the manufacturing industry.

The employment index was 31.8%, down 15.7 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the level of employment in manufacturing enterprises decreased.

The delivery time index of suppliers was 32.1%, down 17.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the delivery time of raw material suppliers in the manufacturing industry slowed down compared with the previous month.

2u3001 Operation of purchasing manager index in Chinas non manufacturing industry

In February 2020, the business activity index of non manufacturing industry was 29.6%, 24.5 percentage points lower than that of last month, indicating that under the impact of the epidemic, the overall non manufacturing economy dropped significantly.

By industry, the service business activity index was 30.1%, down 23.0 percentage points from last month. In terms of industry categories, only the business activity indexes of monetary and financial services and capital market services remain in the expansion range, and the total business volume continues to grow; the business activity indexes of telecommunication, radio, television, satellite transmission services and Internet software information technology services are in the contraction range, but significantly higher than the overall service industry. The construction business activity index was 26.6%, down 33.1 percentage points from last month.

The new orders index was 26.5%, down 24.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that demand in the non manufacturing market fell. By industry, the new order index of service industry is 27.0%, down 23.0 percentage points from last month; the new order index of construction industry is 23.8%, down 30.0 percentage points from last month.

The input price index was 49.3%, down 4.0 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the critical point, indicating that the input price used by non manufacturing enterprises for business activities fell overall. By industry, the service industry input price index is 48.4%, down 4.4 percentage points from last month; the construction industry input price index is 54.0%, down 2.1 percentage points from last month.

The sales price index was 43.9%, down 6.6 percentage points from last month, which was below the critical point, indicating that the overall sales price of non manufacturing industry changed from rising to falling. By industry, the sales price index of service industry is 42.7%, down 7.5 percentage points from last month; the sales price index of construction industry is 50.9%, down 1.3 percentage points from last month.

The employment index was 37.9%, down 10.7 percentage points from last month. By industry, the index of service industry employees was 38.9%, down 8.5 percentage points from the previous month; the index of construction industry employees was 32.3%, down 23.0 percentage points from the previous month.

3u3001 Operation of Chinas comprehensive PMI output index

In February 2020, the comprehensive PMI output index was 28.9%, 24.1 percentage points lower than that of last month, indicating the overall slowdown of production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises.

Note appended

Purchasing manager index (PMI) is an index compiled by summarizing and summarizing the monthly survey results of enterprise purchasing managers. It covers all aspects of enterprise purchasing, production and circulation, including manufacturing and non manufacturing fields. It is one of the leading indexes for monitoring the trend of macro-economy in the world, with strong prediction and early warning function. The comprehensive PMI output index is a comprehensive index reflecting the output changes of the whole industry (manufacturing industry and non manufacturing industry) in the current period in the PMI index system. PMI usually takes 50% as the demarcation point of economic strength. When PMI is higher than 50%, it reflects the overall expansion of the economy; when PMI is lower than 50%, it reflects the overall contraction of the economy.

2. Scope of investigation

There are 3000 survey samples in 31 industry categories of manufacturing industry in the national economic industry classification (GB / t4754-2017), and 4000 survey samples in 37 industry categories of non manufacturing industry.

3. Investigation methods

PPS (probability proportional to size) sampling method is adopted in the survey of purchasing managers, with manufacturing industry or non manufacturing industry as the layer. The sample size of the industry is distributed according to the proportion of its added value in all manufacturing industry or non manufacturing industry, and the probability of using the sample within the layer in proportion to the main business income of the enterprise is selected.

The survey is organized and implemented by the survey team directly under the National Bureau of statistics. The National Statistics online direct reporting system is used to conduct monthly questionnaire survey on enterprise procurement managers.

(1) Calculation method of classification index. The survey index system of purchasing manager in manufacturing industry includes 13 sub indexes, including production, new order, new export order, in hand order, finished product inventory, purchase volume, import, purchase price of main raw materials, ex factory price, raw material inventory, employees, supplier delivery time, production and operation activity expectation. The non Manufacturing Purchasing Manager survey index system includes 10 sub indexes, including business activities, new orders, new export orders, orders in hand, inventory, input price, sales price, employees, supplier delivery time, business activity expectation, etc. The classification index is calculated by diffusion index, that is, the percentage of enterprises with positive answers plus half of the percentage with constant answers. Since there is no composite index for non manufacturing industry, the international business activity index is usually used to reflect the overall changes in the economic development of non manufacturing industry.

(3) Calculation method of comprehensive PMI output index. The comprehensive PMI output index is composed of the weighted sum of the manufacturing production index and the non manufacturing business activity index. The weights are the proportion of manufacturing industry and non manufacturing industry in GDP respectively.

5. Seasonal adjustment

The purchasing manager survey is a monthly survey. Influenced by seasonal factors, the data fluctuate greatly. The indexes published now are all seasonally adjusted data.

Zhao Qinghe, Senior Statistician of the service industry investigation center of the National Bureau of statistics, interprets the purchasing manager index of China in February 2020

Affected by the epidemic situation, the purchasing manager index dropped significantly in February

At present, the recovery rate of enterprises is fast, which will promote the rise of purchasing manager index in March

On February 29, 2020, the service industry survey center of the National Bureau of statistics and China Federation of logistics and procurement released the China procurement manager index. Zhao Qinghe, Senior Statistician of the service industry investigation center of the National Bureau of statistics, interpreted this.

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