On February 27, Zhong Nanshan, the God of men, said at the special news conference on epidemic prevention and control of Guangzhou Medical University that he expected to basically control the epidemic by the end of April.
Here is what Zhong Nanshan said and answered questions from reporters:
1. Chloroquine has a good effect
Zhong Nanshan: at present, we have tried various drugs, such as abidore and chloroquine, which can improve in 5-7 and 8 days, no more than 10 days. But in general, the effect of chloroquine is better, but it remains to be observed.
Now they are all using the existing safe drugs. According to my observation, there is no blank control group, and the blank control can not be said in medical ethics. Next, we will conduct a serious control experiment.
2. Expected to be controlled by the end of April
Zhong Nanshan: Based on the traditional model and the influencing factors, we predict that the peak should be close to the end of February in mid February after the national strong intervention and the elimination of the return peak after the Spring Festival. On February 15, the figures came down. Before that, there were more than 100000 people predicted abroad. We predicted 60000 or 70000. Now how many? More than 70000 people, our prediction is closer. At that time, we invested in foreign authoritative journals and were returned. Several people sent me wechat messages saying, your words will be crushed in a few days..
It is predicted that the epidemic situation will be controlled by the end of May. We are confident that it will be basically controlled by the end of April. You can take a look at it next.
3. Generally, it will not be reinfected after recovery
Zhong Nanshan: if there is enough antibody in the patients body, the general patient will not be infected again, which is the rule. Like flu, people dont get infected for a while.
It remains to be seen whether there are residues in the intestinal feces that will be transmitted to other people.
4. The situation abroad is quite serious
Zhong Nanshan: at present, the development of foreign countries is relatively fast. China was originally an export case, but will it become an import case later, which is also possible.
We can see that in the past, Korea also developed rapidly in mers, so we need to have a mechanism of joint prevention and control. We need to find it early. As long as we find it early, 85% of my observation room can slowly improve. Unless there are hypertension, heart disease and COPD, the risk coefficient of critical illness is nine times higher than that of ordinary cases.
We have always had friction with Japan and South Korea, but in times of crisis, Japan and South Korea always support us. Now that they have problems, we should also support them.
For many fast-growing countries, we should refer to the Chinese model. Chinas rapid decline after reaching its peak is due to the joint defense and control mechanism. I will be invited to give a video presentation to the European Respiratory Society this weekend. Its a human disease, not a national disease.
Zhong Nanshan: wild animals have been banned for many times. Especially in Guangdong, civet cats, pangolins and other people are eating them. Many places in China are breeding civet cats without even testing.
6. CDC status is too low
Zhong Nanshan: the short board of this outbreak is that our CDC (China CDC) is too low to receive enough attention. Its just a technical department that needs to report level by level. Unlike many other countries, they can reach the highest level directly.
7. The virus does not necessarily originate in China
Zhong Nanshan: to predict the epidemic situation, we should first consider China, not foreign countries. The epidemic situation first appears in China, not necessarily originated in China.
8, a pressing matter of the moment is novel coronavirus pneumonia and influenza.
Zhong Nanshan: there are a large number of suspected patients in Wuhan, and diagnosis is imminent. Novel coronavirus pneumonia is a common disease. CT is very similar. It is very similar. If the pneumonia caused by influenza is mixed with new crown pneumonia, that is not the case. Novel coronavirus pneumonia is also present in the United States. We are speeding up R & D and clinical validation. How to identify new coronavirus and influenza in a short time is very important. The second is to consider how to make a better diagnosis. In addition to nucleic acid detection, it is also a good auxiliary means to make IgM antibody for suspected patients.
9. The peak after return to work has not yet appeared
Zhong Nanshan: now the return to work peak. Before, our prediction model was that there was another peak after the return. Now its the 27th, and our prediction peak hasnt appeared yet. Because we have to check whether we get on or off the train, the natural spread of the virus has been interrupted, so we need to go back to work, but under strict arrangements. For example, Foxconns tens of thousands of people returned to work in 3000 square meters. At that time, we adopted the method that workers should double test, one is nucleic acid test, and the other is IgM test. In addition, all factory faucets and sewers should be very smooth. Now there is no evidence that the virus spreads through the digestive tract, so respiratory protection should be done well.
10. Prevention and control experience of big cities
Zhong Nanshan: for all acute infectious diseases, the first thing is to control them upstream and isolate them as soon as they are found, so it is difficult to generate aggregated infection. Second, these patients should be admitted to designated hospitals, and severe patients must be treated by comprehensive disciplines. There are also big cities that need international cooperation very much. Good treatment methods and good diagnosis methods can be shared.