Affected by this, real estate enterprises started online sales, supplemented by discounts; while actively financing abroad, in order to make up for the gap in the capital chain under the impact of the epidemic.
According to the statistics of some institutions, in 2020, the scale of the matured credit bonds of the real estate enterprises will exceed 700 billion yuan, a sharp increase compared with 2019. Under the background of epidemic influence before and debt pressure after, can the self rescue behavior of real estate enterprises ensure that they can survive?
Financing growth rate needs to reach 26.4%
According to the incomplete statistics of Zhongyuan Real Estate Research Center, since February, more than 40 cities across the country have issued real estate support policies to ease the pressure of corporate capital. But on the financing side, there is no obvious sign of deregulation. In the fourth quarter monetary policy report released by the central bank on February 19, the central bank once again emphasized no speculation in housing and reiterated no real estate as a short-term means of stimulating the economy. On February 24, the relevant person in charge of the CIRC said at a press conference that it is necessary to ensure that whether bank loans are really used for production and operation activities, rather than illegally flowing to real estate and capital market. This statement laid a basic tone, that is, the real estate market control policy will not be significantly relaxed. Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real estate, believes that Chinas economic growth has entered a shift period, but in terms of development mode, the practice of deregulation of the real estate market to stimulate the real estate market and then stimulate economic growth will not reappear. Since the middle and last ten days of February, real estate enterprises began to return to work one after another, but according to the 21st century economic report, at present, the main jobs to return to work are backstage support posts, and many companies implement the system of taking turns, not completely returning to work. In addition, although the sales end has also resumed work on a large scale, many interviewed real estate enterprises have reported that the sales office is still in a corner. Offline sales are not open, capital return is blocked, and financing scale is also reduced compared with the same period of previous years. According to data from several institutions, due to limited domestic financing, the scale of overseas financing of real estate enterprises soared in January this year. But by February, overseas financing had fallen sharply. The total financing scale of real estate enterprises at the beginning of the year is significantly lower than that of the same period last year. Yihan think tank pointed out that the total amount of credit bonds to be matured by real estate enterprises in 2020 is 746.86 billion yuan. Without considering the large amount of capital required for operation, the growth rate of financing scale in this year will reach 26.4%, just to cover the matured debts. Otherwise, some of the self owned funds used by real estate enterprises for operation will be squeezed out for repayment, thus further restricting the investment, construction and other actions of real estate enterprises.
Multiple real estate enterprises deposit refinancing risk
According to Zhang Dawei, on the whole, private enterprises are more affected than state-owned enterprises, and small and medium-sized real estate enterprises are more affected than large ones. This impact is reflected in both the land market and the financing side.
So, what is the impact of the epidemic on the credit rating and capital chain of real estate enterprises?
Recently, Fitch released a research report that pointed out that the new coronavirus epidemic had different degrees of impact on the business of 166 Chinese enterprises evaluated, and the refinancing risk of 6% enterprises increased. Among them, four real estate enterprises, i.e. China (CCC), Yide International (B - / stable), Xinhu Zhongbao (B - / stable) and Guorui real estate (B - / stable), were named as high refinancing risk.
Among them, Yida China has the highest risk. According to the announcement, Yidas RMB 11.58 billion debt will expire by June 2020. According to its current financial situation, it is difficult to cover debts in the short term. Recently, Yida China once again delayed the cash dividend of 8 points per share for the year ended December 31, 2017, and delayed the repayment of the related loan of RMB 288.5 million from zhongminjiaye, and the loan agreement of RMB 4.579 billion had trigger risk.
Novel coronavirus pneumonia is expected to have a bigger impact on the real estate industry in the first quarter, and the impact of Hubei and its surrounding provinces will be even greater. Some housing enterprises with high short-term debt are under pressure in terms of capital and liquidity. But throughout the year, the overall impact is limited.
According to the agency, under the benchmark scenario (the epidemic ended in April), the overall credit risk of real estate enterprises will remain stable in 2020. However, the impact of different types of real estate enterprises will be differentiated. Under the benchmark situation, the epidemic has a great impact on the high-frequency transformation of country garden and other projects, and the real estate enterprises of China Construction Third Engineering Bureau, Fuxing Huiyu, Wuhan real estate group, etc., which are concentrated in Hubei Province. It has a general impact on resource-based real estate enterprises such as Vanke, poly, investment promotion, etc., which are rich in soil reserves, abundant in funds and under little short-term debt pressure.
At the same time, resource-based real estate enterprises can seize the good opportunities of land and M & A to a certain extent.
Yihan think tank said that in addition to reducing price and clearing inventory in time, real estate enterprises with insufficient funds need to reduce land investment expenditure to ensure capital security. In addition, in the case of the industry downturn, holding a group for heating will be a trend, and cooperative land acquisition and development is also a good choice to tide over difficulties.
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