Dialectical view on the impact of epidemic situation
21st century: during the epidemic, on the one hand, the traditional economy, such as retail and catering, fell, on the other hand, the new economy, such as online office and online education, flourished. How to treat this phenomenon?
Wang Wei: the outbreak is just around the Spring Festival holiday, the most important traditional holiday in China. In addition, the prevention and control of the epidemic needs to avoid large-scale population flow and aggregation, and take necessary isolation measures. Therefore, in the short term, the release of consumer demand has been greatly inhibited, including shopping, catering, tourism, culture, education, entertainment, etc.
But it is worth noting that in the process of epidemic prevention and control, a series of new consumption, new products, new formats and new models have emerged, playing a role in ensuring stability and supply.
Unlike SARS 17 years ago, online shopping now accounts for more than a quarter of the total retail sales of consumer goods. Such as the contactless shopping distribution and online broadcast of cinema movies, which are generated by the epidemic, not only support the daily consumption of the common people and effectively ensure the social supply, but also provide a variety of consumption services and entertainment modes for everyones home isolation, and support the social stability.
At the same time, the epidemic situation provides a great opportunity for innovation and exploration for the new economy represented by the digital economy. Take online education as an example. In the past, it was only used in some selective courses or remote education in remote mountainous areas, but this epidemic gave online education industry a large-scale experiment opportunity. During the epidemic period, there was no suspension of classes, and more than 100 million students in the country were concentrated in online learning, and online education began to enter the formal teaching process.
Because of many new consumption, new products, new formats and new models, its application scenarios are very limited, or the common people are used to the old models, it is often difficult to smoothly promote to the market and be accepted by consumers. The sudden epidemic provides an outbreak point or breakthrough point for innovation exploration - hundreds of millions of people learn and work online at the same time. This is not only a process of centralized display and test of innovation, but also a great opportunity for digital technology to expand application scenarios and deepen applications.
Therefore, we should take a dialectical view of the impact and impact of the epidemic. This epidemic has not changed the general trend of Chinas economic and social development from high-speed growth to high-quality transformation, but created new opportunities and new space.
The epidemic forced innovation to accelerate
21st century: what are the main aspects of this new opportunity and new space?
Wang Wei: the epidemic not only gave birth to a series of new businesses, new products and new models, but also brought about explosive growth of some existing but tepid new economies.
In my opinion, the innovation is mainly manifested in four aspects: first, the consumption mode is further online. During the epidemic prevention and control period, more people switched to online channels to achieve diversified consumption staying indoors, which led to the rapid growth of online shopping, online classroom and other mature online consumption, as well as the emergence of some new online consumption. With the development of residents consumption habits and the improvement of acceptance, the traditional industry development mode and interest chain may be broken, which will further improve the stickiness of users to online channels.
Second, the application of mature technology creates new formats and models. The limited contact consumption in the process of epidemic prevention and control has opened up market space for some relatively mature emerging technologies, especially the emerging supply methods such as UAV delivery and unmanned vehicle man. With the further maturity of technology and the continuous development of online consumption in the future, the new service supply mode using emerging technology will be further developed, which can provide strong support for consumption innovation.
Third, the new way of working has become a new trend. During the Spring Festival and the recent resumption of production and work, due to the impact of isolation and travel restrictions, many enterprises and units are forced to work in a decentralized and flexible manner, which promotes the emergence of a large number of new working methods such as online office, video conference, online delivery, and effectively promotes the improvement of office efficiency.
Fourth, health consumption and health industry have become new growth points. The outbreak is directly related to the consumption of wild animals, and at the same time exposes the poor habits of residents daily life, which leads to peoples reflection on long-term consumption and health concept, and promotes the whole society to pay more attention to health and safety, pay more attention to strengthening self-protection and immunity, and significantly increase the demand for healthy green products and services.
It can be seen that this epidemic situation provides a rare exploration opportunity and a broader development space for innovation, which will force the accelerated development of a series of new consumption, new products, new formats and new models, and provide support for China to realize innovation driven, structural transformation and improve economic operation efficiency.
Great opportunity for industry change
Twenty-first Century: will the novel coronavirus pneumonia cause a new batch of leading enterprises? In your opinion, which industries or fields will usher in new development opportunities?
Wang Wei: it remains to be seen whether there will be leading enterprises this time, because the current innovation in China is different from that in previous years. In the past few years, innovation began to appear, often with few followers, so it is particularly easy to form Unicorn enterprises. But now the Internet application industry has been familiar to the whole society, and the scene and main body of innovation are full, so it is not so easy to form an independent enterprise.
However, it is expected that the outbreak will give birth to some truly vigorous new industries and new formats, which will usher in major change opportunities for some industries.
First, the telecommuting industry. Online office was only an internal attempt of the enterprise before, but the epidemic pushed it directly from the circle to more than 200 million people, so the remote office industry ushered in the outbreak period, which will also promote the development of the server, network equipment and facilities and other surrounding software industries. According to relevant statistics, online office software from the original several, has grown rapidly to more than 20.
Second, the online entertainment industry. The longest Spring Festival in history, coupled with limited home use, has led to a surge in the use of mobile Internet, indicating that many users who are free at home enjoy themselves through games, online movies, live broadcast and other forms of entertainment. According to the Ministry of industry and information technology, during the Spring Festival this year, mobile Internet traffic consumption reached 2.716 million TB, an increase of 36.4% year on year.
Third, intelligent service industry. In view of the special medical scene such as epidemic treatment and the use of 5g cloud technology, a new service robot for disinfection, cleaning, temperature measurement, patrol and other services has been developed, which has been put into use in some key hospitals, greatly reducing the workload of medical staff and reducing the risk of infection.
Fourth, online education industry. The delayed start of school forced teachers and students to move online, and the online education industry saw a surge in new user access, giving the whole industry a new experience. But for a large number of primary and secondary education institutions and schools, it may be a challenge.
Fifth, e-commerce industry. Affected by the epidemic, enterprises such as Jingdong home, Wumei multi-point and so on have opened the last kilometer, realizing the connection between business super and community, which may be a turning opportunity for fresh e-commerce and community e-commerce. In the future, vertical, online and offline e-commerce may be more popular.
21st century: many people are also worried about whether the user consumption habits or ideas developed in an extraordinary period can become the driving force for the sustainable development of the industry?
Wang Wei: in fact, the digital economy itself is still in a process of continuous exploration. Some industries may only be very popular when supported by capital, and the epidemic situation in special periods is the same. Some of the innovations generated in this stage may be temporary needs, but they are all based on needs.
How to turn the explosive dividend into the continuous growth power, how to keep the enterprises and users, how to optimize the products and find the profit point, are the problems that need to be considered. After all, social needs are diverse. If these industries and enterprises can speed up the improvement of services, expand application scenarios, and enhance user stickiness, most of the innovation prospects can be expected, just the level of development.
Prudent and inclusive management
21st century: how to better promote these innovations to serve economic development in response to the impact of the epidemic?
Wang Wei: digital technology is showing three major trends: first, the transformation from highly standardized goods to complex goods and then to service expansion; second, the transformation from simple online innovation to online and offline integration innovation; third, the transformation from consumption innovation to interactive innovation of the whole industrial chain.
In the future, digital economy should aim at three directions in promoting the development trend of innovation and transformation of traditional industries. The first is the gradual transformation from technology driven to multi factor driven innovation; the second is the transformation from small and micro enterprises Entrepreneurship and innovation exploration to the collaborative development of large and medium-sized enterprises; the third is the large-scale innovation from urban and rural areas to cross-border, so as to promote Chinas economic development to achieve high quality.
21st century: how can we avoid the confusion and death of these new technologies, new formats and new models?
Wang Wei: these innovations do bring some regulatory challenges, such as whether there are regulatory loopholes in the approval of some industries put on the Internet, policy restrictions, online diagnosis and treatment enterprises only do non core businesses other than diagnosis and treatment, and so on.
This requires the government to change its concept of thinking, especially in the context of deregulation services. On the one hand, the government should strive to improve its modern regulatory capacity, constantly improve its ability to use the Internet, big data, artificial intelligence and other advanced technologies, shorten the approval process, and promote online and offline integration of Internet + regulation; on the other hand, it should adhere to the principle of prudence and inclusiveness, and further improve it Policies, create a good environment for innovation.