Tourism anti epidemic Defense War: expecting retaliatory rebound

 Tourism anti epidemic Defense War: expecting retaliatory rebound

After the impact of the epidemic, all activities were suspended, and even the reopened Confucius Temple scenic area was severely damaged. Since its opening on February 19, the lack of people has become the norm for this popular scenic spot. After a visit by the 21st century economic report reporter, it was found that, in addition to the relatively closed space, the shops on both sides of the pedestrian street were not many, mainly including street snacks, tourism specialties and department stores, while the catering services for Hall food were still closed.

With the relief of the epidemic, the domestic tourism industry was restarted. The long-standing tourist barrier lake began to relieve pressure in the successive opening of scenic spots all over the country. The first day of opening of Beijing Xiangshan, Hangzhou West Lake and Jiangxi Wugong mountain was full of tourists. However, it seems that there are not a few relatively lonely scenic spots such as Confucius temple. For example, after going to open Mount Huangshan, there will be a situation of one person enjoying alone, which indicates that the recovery of tourism will not be overnight.

A tourism anti epidemic defense war is still in progress.

Sudden stop

With the launch of the new website, the emergence of new cooperation and the expansion of the team, we are full of expectations. We even give up our travel plan for the Spring Festival holiday and are ready to go back to work on January 29. According to sun sun sun, the founder and CEO of travelright, it was a happy February. But the spread of the epidemic forced the original plan to be postponed.

In 2018, sun sun sun and her partners founded travelright, becoming the first innovative enterprise in China to provide flight delay claims. In recent years, the explosive growth of Chinese tourists in Europe, as well as the fact that a large number of flights around the world are delayed for 30 minutes or cancelled, make the prospect of travelright very promising.

Sun sun sun told 21st century economic news that travelrights services are favored by domestic travel booking platforms. After cooperating with fellow travelers and flight managers in 2019, Ctrip will also become a travelright claims service partner this year. However, affected by the epidemic, major travel booking platforms not only suffered a sharp drop in revenue during the Spring Festival, but also faced a large number of refunds. Large travel booking platforms are struggling with refunds, and all travel agencies will be closed until March. Sun sun sun said.

More than a month ago, the domestic tourism industry pressed the pause button.

On January 24, the Ministry of culture and tourism issued an urgent notice, asking national travel agencies and online tourism enterprises to suspend the operation of team tourism and air tickets + hotels tourism products. The tourism industry has almost stopped. Subsequently, a wave of consumers centralized refunds came, which caught the major tourism enterprises by surprise.

The 21st century economic reporter learned from the OTA platforms that the Spring Festival archives were originally made by major tourism enterprises, but became Spring Festival archives due to the centralized cancellation of a large number of orders. Its the Spring Festival, and its a huge number of cancellations. The refund from the resource side may take 1 to 3 months to collect, but most consumers require 10 working days to return, so we need to make advances together. The person in charge of Ctrip told the 21st century economic reporter that since the outbreak, the company has completed more than 90% of the orders for customers, bearing a huge loss.

Another top OTA company, tuniu, is facing the same pressure. The companys relevant person in charge told 21st century economic reporter, this epidemic has brought a large number of order cancellations, and tunius cancellations and consultations have continued to grow in an explosive way. Customer service has done a good job in ensuring passengers cancellations and changes online 24 hours a day, and the number of phone calls has increased by more than 10 times.

At the same time, due to the closure of its tourism projects, listed tourism enterprises are crying. The 21st century economic report found that 11 A-share listed tourism enterprises, such as Jiuhua tourism (603199. SH) and Songcheng Entertainment (300144. SZ), announced the suspension of the project operation successively, which was closed from January 24 to 27. Will have an adverse impact on the companys net profit for the year, the time and extent of its impact cannot be accurately estimated at present The operating performance of listed tourism enterprises in the first quarter of this year is undoubtedly impacted.

Unable to return to work and production, and also need to bear the pressure of personnel, rent, operation and other costs. When the epidemic stalls the demand of the industry, tourism enterprises bleed because of the imbalance of income and cost.

According to the prediction of China Tourism Research Institute, the domestic tourism industry will suffer heavy losses due to the impact of the epidemic in the first quarter, with a negative growth of 56% and 69% respectively in the number of domestic tourists and tourism revenue; in the whole year, the number of domestic tourists and tourism revenue are expected to reduce 932 million person times and 1.18 trillion yuan respectively.

Emergency rescue

The tourism industry has entered a frozen period, and a rescue operation has been staged urgently.

A tourism analyst told the 21st century economic reporter that the head tourism enterprises can rely on their own scale and capital advantages to deal with the epidemic, but small and medium-sized tourism enterprises are facing the test of life and death. However, Chinas tourism industry, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, has a low ability to resist risks, and needs to rely on the support of external forces such as policies.

According to the statistics of 21st century economic reporter, since the outbreak of the epidemic, the Ministry of culture and tourism and more than 20 provinces and cities have successively launched supporting policies, involving five aspects: financial support, financial policy, tax reduction, cost reduction, government service, etc., to help tourism enterprises survive the cold winter. Among them, the refund of travel security is of great concern.

On February 5, the general office of the Ministry of culture and tourism issued a notice that it will temporarily withdraw part of the deposit for tourism service quality to support travel agencies to cope with business difficulties. According to the notice, the scope of the temporary withdrawal of the deposit is all the travel agencies that have paid the deposit and obtained the travel agency business license in accordance with the law, and the standard of the temporary withdrawal is 80% of the current payment amount.

Statistics show that as of February 25, 35200 travel agencies across the country have applied for temporary withdrawal of deposit, accounting for 90% of the total number of travel agencies, and the total amount of refundable deposit has reached 8 billion yuan. According to Liu Kezhi, director of the market management department of the Ministry of culture and tourism, 3.462 billion yuan of deposit has been refunded. According to the feedback, the policy of temporarily refunding the deposit effectively eases the pressure of cash flow of enterprises.

OTA enterprises deeply bound with major and medium-sized tourism suppliers also experienced an extremely tense February. Take Ctrip as an example. According to the results of the companys tourism platform announced last year, more than 25000 travel agencies are partners at the supply end of Ctrip platform, with small and medium-sized suppliers accounting for more than 80%.

The person in charge of Ctrip told the 21st century economic reporter that from January 21 to February 21, Ctrip experienced a complete anti epidemic cycle. In this cycle, the company not only completed a large number of orders to unsubscribe, another important task is to support suppliers. We have launched RMB 200 million major disaster protection fund, RMB 1 billion partner support fund and RMB 10 billion small and micro loans to protect users, while at the same time protecting users interests, we have made great efforts to support suppliers and partners to overcome difficulties. The person in charge pointed out.

Another self rescue operation is also being launched in the hotel industry. The decline of tourism demand has shocked the domestic hotel industry.

Affected by this, stabilizing franchisees has become the key work of self-help of major local hotel groups. Huazhu group told the 21st century economic reporter that relying on the advantages of Dalian lock, Huazhu group has successively issued a series of cost reduction policies and financial support programs for the expropriated hotels in Fengcheng District of Hubei Province, the whole country and all the franchised stores in the whole country in a short time.

Rebound dispute

The tourist scenic spots which have been silent for a long time have been awakened one by one by the popularity, and are opening the gate for the long backlog of tourist barrier lakes. As of February 28, more than 450 famous scenic spots across the country have been reopened, and the overall opening rate of scenic spots across the country has exceeded 40%.

On February 25, the Department of resource development of the Ministry of culture and tourism issued the guide to prevention and control measures for the resumption of the opening of tourist attractions, which pointed out that the opening of tourist attractions should adhere to the principle of division and classification, not one size fits all, indicating that the domestic tourism industry sent a restart signal.

But when inflection point comes, no one can accurately judge. On the one hand, the historical experience and the slowing down of domestic epidemic situation give tourism practitioners the expectation of recovery, but whether the epidemic situation is repeated and foreign epidemic situation worsens makes practitioners hard to be optimistic. Under the combination of hope and uneasiness, the tourism industry has been carrying on a heavy load.

One source of confidence for practitioners comes from the demonstration of historical data: after the SARS epidemic seventeen years ago, the domestic tourism industry experienced a retaliatory rebound.

According to the experience of Songcheng scenic spot in 2003, the year after SARS ushered in the explosive growth and high-speed rebound of tourists, Songcheng performance said in to all investors

Zhongxin tourism (002707. SZ) also said, due to the experience of fighting against SARS, we have taken strict and effective prevention and control measures against the epidemic countries, and we firmly believe that the impact cycle of the epidemic on the tourism industry will be shorter than that of SARS.. It is expected that the companys business will gradually stabilize in the second quarter, the third quarter is the summer peak season, and the third quarter or the fourth quarter at the latest will usher in the full release and rebound of business demand.

In 2003, affected by the SARS epidemic, from April to June of that year, Chinas inbound, outbound and domestic tourism markets were severely impacted. Among them, inbound tourism and domestic tourism even declined for the first time in 2003. After the SARS epidemic, there was a blowout in the domestic tourism market.

According to Ctrip big data, the demand for accommodation in civil aviation and hotels recovered rapidly after the end of the SARS epidemic.

In terms of civil aviation, in the second quarter of 2003, Ctrips air ticket booking volume decreased by 33.39% year on year. In July, Ctrips ticket order volume increased by 200% year-on-year and 82% month on month. Retaliation rebounded, especially in the golden tourism period after the SARS epidemic. During the golden week of the 11th in 2003, the volume of air ticket orders on Ctrip platform increased by 200% year on year; during the Spring Festival in 2004, the volume of air ticket orders increased by 201% year on year.

In terms of hotel accommodation, in the second quarter of 2003, Ctrip hotels booking volume decreased by 25.08% year on year. In June, the hotel industry began to recover. In July, the occupancy rate of Ctrip hotel has recovered to 70% of the same period of last year, and the long tail continued to the next year.

At the same time, the forecast time point for the control of the epidemic gradually became clear, so that practitioners saw the end of the cold winter.

On February 27, Zhong Nanshan said at the special news conference on epidemic prevention and control of Guangzhou Medical University, according to our teams traditional model plus influencing factors (after the states strong intervention and the elimination of the return peak after the Spring Festival), it is predicted that the peak should be close to the end of February in mid February. We are confident that we will basically control by the end of April.

If the epidemic is under control at the end of April, the golden week of May 1 will be the first to benefit.

According to the search information of Ctrip, Feizhu and other major platforms, the search volume of air tickets and hotels of platform users is increasing. In Ctrips aspect, the overall search volume of air tickets for the May Day holiday is higher than that of last year, with a year-on-year increase of 25% in hotel search volume, and the search volume of hotels in Sanya and Shanghai has become hot; in the aspect of flying pigs, the search volume of air tickets and train tickets for the May Day holiday has increased by 40% over last week, and the search volume of hotels has increased by 35%.

However, the risk of recurrence of the epidemic makes the scenic area open, but the overall tourism function has not been restored.

In Nanjing Fuzimiao scenic spot, according to the statistics of 21st century economic reporter, the business rate of shops along the pedestrian street is about 15%. The important functions of scenic spots, such as catering, have not been restored due to the prevention of aggregation during the epidemic. We come here for a walk, a turn and a relaxation. One tourist said.

In addition, the spread of the overseas epidemic makes it difficult for the tourism industry to retaliate in a short period of time.

Recently, novel coronavirus pneumonia patients are increasing in many parts of the world. Take Japan and South Korea as an example. As of 9:00 a.m. on February 28, there were more than 2000 confirmed cases in South Korea and more than 900 confirmed cases in Japan.

The risk of the epidemic is still objective. It may be a little better at home, but there is a spread abroad. Liu Simin, a well-known tourism expert and vice president of the tourism branch of China future research association, said in an interview with 21st century economic report that it is too early to predict the recovery time of tourism industry, and no one can control the uncertainty of the epidemic.

But Liu Simin also pointed out that economic recovery and epidemic prevention and control are currently a pair of contradictions, but both should be grasped. On the one hand, both scenic spots and tourists should take a cautious attitude, and open scenic spots according to local conditions according to the development of epidemic situation; on the other hand, policies need to give clear expectations to tourism practitioners, for example, it can be proposed to set up two golden tourism weeks in may and August, which can not only guarantee the release of tourism demand, but also give practitioners confidence.

The demand for tourism cannot be stored. It needs to be released in time after the epidemic, so that it can save the tourism industry that has suffered a lot and is in danger. Liu said.