Todays a share market is too difficult: three weird signals have you alerted?

category:Finance
 Todays a share market is too difficult: three weird signals have you alerted?


Every bulls eye noticed that when this fund person expressed this view, the Shanghai index was in the process of rapid callback after breaking through 3000 points, and then quickly pulling up, so this view also made many investors who were scared by the intraday shocks, light positions or even empty positions ignited the flames of getting on again.

However, todays market, the mentality of these shareholders has collapsed:

Photo source: Fortune Oriental

Of course, joking is joking. Whats wrong with todays market? Lets take a look.

Tech stocks abandoned as the market fell

This week in the peripheral market down sharply, still resist a shares for several days, today also some can not withstand.

Gem refers to the recent daily K-line chart

Today, the two cities fell sharply, all the way down, and finally the Shanghai index fell nearly 4%, lost 2900 points and all the short and medium-term averages, returned to the point around February 10, and left a gap of more than 30 points. In recent years, the growth enterprise market, which has hit a new high for more than three years, has become a major disaster area, down nearly 6%. Of the more than 3000 stocks in the two cities, only more than 200 were red, while the number of stocks with limit only was close to 300.

In terms of sectors, technology stocks, which have continued to soar and accumulated huge gains since the beginning of the year, have obviously become the focus of the sell-off, with the sectors of technology stocks including communication, electronics and software all falling by more than 7%. From the perspective of the concept of the two cities, there is only one single seedling: the mask concept unit. In addition, the medical and pharmaceutical sector is relatively strong.

Industry sector decline ranking today

Todays growth ranking of concept sector

Four and a half months of gains in U.S. stocks, four days of clear A shares, three major alarms have already sounded!

Today, although a shares suddenly fell, but compared with the peripheral market has been very strong!

Under the influence of the global spread of the epidemic, the Dow Jones index of the US stock market plummeted this week, falling more than an astonishing 3000 points in four trading days. In just four and a half days, it wiped out the four-and-a-half-month increase and returned to its original position when the market started in October last year.

Recent K-line chart of Dow Jones index

With the sharp decline of the Dow, other markets around the world are naturally unable to take care of themselves. Basically, the decline is synchronized with the decline of the Dow. So, a share has been around 3000 until today, it has been a very strong callback!

However, every bulls eye also noted that the decline of a shares today is not entirely without signs. In addition to focusing on the trend of the peripheral market, if we notice this in advance, it may be possible to reduce or clear positions near 3000 points, and successfully avoid todays callback. This sign is the key turnover.

Daily turnover after two years (data source: choice)

According to choice statistics, from February 19 to today, the turnover of the two cities stood above trillion yuan for eight consecutive trading days, returning to the level of last March and April.

There are three points behind this phenomenon that need special attention:

1u3001 In March and April of last year, when the Shanghai index stood at 3100 and reached a high of 3288 last year, it fell rapidly. Therefore, the trading volume of the two cities stands at trillion yuan. We should be aware of the risk of high-level and large-scale flight of market funds.

Shanghai indexs daily K-line chart since last year

2u3001 Since February 19, the Shanghai stock index has been fluctuating in a narrow range around 3000 points, up and down 50 points, while the turnover of the two markets continues to rise, which is in line with the definition of large volume stagflation in the theory of technical analysis, and it is also necessary to be careful about the high-level horizontal market of market funds. From todays market trend, a shares in the peripheral market generally callback in the case of 3000 points around the whole four days, its purpose seems very clear.

Shanghai index recent daily K-line chart

As early as in the evening of February 23, CITIC Securities issued an early warning that there is still inertia in the inflow of funds, but this round of fund relay is close to the end.. (this is because) 1) the allocation type capital is dominant, and the scale of foreign capital inflow returns to the average. 2) The public offering position has been very high, and the private placement has increased significantly in the short term. 3) Floor leverage and individual investors remain important sources of incremental capital. . At the same time, CITIC Securities also pointed out that A shares still have upward action energy in the short term, but the momentum will gradually decline..

Mask unit radiates the second spring 14 shares or welcomes the competition

Since the beginning of the year, affected by the domestic epidemic, there has been a wave of rapid correction of the mask concept unit, which has become the only bright spot in the two cities today, and ushered in the second spring momentum.

Mask concept stocks rose today

As many as 18 of the 23 masks counted by Dongfang fortune com have turned red against the trend and 11 have been locked up, which is enviable. And from the mask stock index trend, it is clear that the market should be prepared for another wave.

Mask concept stock index recent day K-line chart

The two waves of market after the opening year of the mask concept unit are naturally related to the epidemic, but the wave after the opening year is affected by the domestic epidemic, while the latest wave is affected by the spread of the global epidemic. As long as the global epidemic is not clearly under control, masks are still the hard currency comparable to gold.

According to the first financial report, from the current global restrictions on the purchase of masks and the soaring prices, the demand for masks is a sharp jump. Think about it. If one tenth of the worlds 7 billion people need masks, there will be 700 million masks every day. If 30% need masks, there will be 2 billion masks. Now, the global production capacity is simply unable to support, especially the raw material melt blown cloth that is necessary to produce masks. Two billion masks need at least 2000 tons of melt blown cloth a day, but the daily production of melt blown cloth in China is only about 40 tons, and there is a huge gap in raw materials.

On February 24, Sinopec announced an investment of about 200 million yuan. In Beijing Yanshan Petrochemical Co., Ltd. and Jiangsu Yizheng Chemical Fiber Co., Ltd., it is speeding up the construction of melt blown non-woven fabric (melt blown fabric) and spunbond fabric production lines. In view of the current situation of severe epidemic prevention and control in China and the shortage of core materials for masks, Sinopec immediately organized sources of goods and quickly built 10 melt blown fabric production lines with its own raw material production advantages u3002

According to the Southern Metropolis Daily, the main structure of medical masks is three-layer non-woven fabric, also known as SMS structure. The inner S-layer is a common non-woven fabric, mainly with moisture absorption function; the outer S-layer is a non-woven fabric with waterproof treatment, which is mainly used to isolate the liquid ejected by the patient, and has the effect of antifoam.

Photo source: Southern Metropolis Daily

According to Zhongtai securities, from the demand side, the overseas epidemic lags behind China, which is in the early stage of the outbreak, and the masks in the severe epidemic areas are out of stock. In terms of global restrictions on the purchase of masks and soaring prices, the demand for masks has increased dramatically. From the supply side, in order to meet the demand of domestic market and increase the export, we need to continue to increase the production capacity of masks. To give the mask production equipment industry a overweight rating. Under the epidemic situation, there is a large demand for mask products, and the mask production equipment is more active under the epidemic situation. For the first time, the mask production equipment industry is rated as increasing the holdings. Select the core recommendation targets with good performance prospects, and focus on the recommendation of Zhiyun and tostar.

Guolian Securities believes that despite the cross-border production transfer of many enterprises, the shortage of raw materials for melt blown non-woven fabrics in the upstream cannot be solved in a short term. With the coming of the return to work tide and the continuous fermentation of overseas epidemics, the short-term global mask shortage will continue. In the medium term, after the epidemic, the state, hospitals, local governments, enterprises and families have greater motivation to maintain the strategic reserve of prevention materials such as masks. However, most of the new production capacity lacks the relevant production qualification of medical masks, and the production capacity will be eliminated after the epidemic. With the expansion of human activities, the change of living environment and the acceleration of population flow under the convenient transportation, the high incidence of infectious diseases is a long-term trend. In the future, the country and people will pay more attention to social public health, and the demand for protective equipment such as masks will continue to increase.

Photo source: China Business Industry Research Institute

According to the agency, due to the expansion of mask production capacity, relevant mask machine manufacturers may benefit in a short term or to varying degrees. Upstream raw material manufacturers such as Xinlong Holding Co., Ltd. and TEDA Co., Ltd. benefit from the long-term rigid demand of masks, and the demand for melt blown non-woven materials is in short supply.

(part of the content of this paper is from the first financial and Southern Metropolis Daily.)

(this article is for reference only, does not constitute the basis for trading, and the risk of entering the market shall be borne by itself.)