Sanders, US Democratic presidential candidate, said in a media interview recently that we will never ignore mainland Chinas military attack on Taiwan. As we all know, this is an election match. It cant be taken seriously. But some people will take it seriously. Some Taiwan independence people will cheer about Sanders remarks and think that with the support of the United States, they can challenge China more boldly.
The United States has been preached that it must make a clearer commitment to defend Taiwan in order to deter China from using force against Taiwan. I am thinking that if a country launches a war, its core interests must be greatly threatened. In other words, if the United States wants to send troops to fight for Taiwan, then Taiwan must be the core interests of the United States. According to trumps us first standard, Taiwan must be part of us first. Is Taiwans weight so important?
When it comes to the relations between the United States and Taiwan, Taiwanese often move out of the law on relations with Taiwan of President Carter in 1979 and the six guarantees to Taiwan of President Reagan in 1982. In particular, the Taiwan independence forces take these two documents as their standard. However, as long as you look at these two documents carefully, there is no reference to the United States will fight for Taiwan. In the final analysis, these two documents only show the two attitudes of the United States: first, the United States does not support the two sides to change the status quo of the Taiwan Strait in a non peaceful way; second, the United States helps Taiwan improve its self-defense capability and provide defensive weapons.
These two attitudes of the United States, frankly speaking, are: first, to maintain the status quo of no unification, no independence, no arms, which is most conducive to the largest strategic interests of the United States; second, to maintain the arms sales of the United States and Taiwan, and to maximize the economic interests of the United States. Apart from these two points, I cant see what more benefits Taiwan can bring to the United States.
As for the rising argument that the United States should clearly defend Taiwan, carpenter, a well-known U.S. defense and foreign policy expert, recently asked, is the United States really ready to defend Taiwan? Is it worth it to the United States? In fact, there is no need to ask or answer this question at all. And no matter what, in terms of war itself, how should the United States prepare? Is it conceivable that the worlds two largest and second largest countries, across the two sides of the Pacific, wage a frontal war in the shallow Taiwan Strait?
In 1996, because Lee Teng Hui threw out the two countries theory to cause the Taiwan Strait crisis, the United States sent troops to help defend Taiwan, two aircraft carriers in the Taiwan Strait, one south one north, trapped the PLA in the west side of the Strait. today we are no longer as we have been. Today, the PLA has two aircraft carriers, and has repeatedly carried out long-distance navigation and drills around Taiwan by military aircraft and warships, greatly enhancing its anti intervention capability. Is the United States determined to fight an aircraft carrier war with China, or even a nuclear war, for the sake of Taiwan independence?
On the Taiwan issue, whether it is the law on relations with Taiwan or the six guarantees to Taiwan, the United States is vague about whether to send troops to fight for Taiwan. But China is not. The anti secession law formulated by China is clear, forceful and unambiguous about the circumstances under which the Taiwan issue can be solved by force. There is no doubt about the will and ability of the PLA to solve the Taiwan issue.
As for the American scholars question: is the United States really ready to defend Taiwan? I think its a good question. Before the United States gives an answer, the U.S. military and Taiwan independence forces should think twice. (Gao Hui, producer of CCTV Cross Strait)