Under the severe impact of the epidemic, the hot catering tourism film and television industry pressed the pause key around the Spring Festival. First of all, the major scenic spots across the country ushered in the tide of closure.
The epidemic has a great impact on scenic spot enterprises and travel agencies. If catering can be transferred to take out, cinema films can be transferred to online, but the companies operating scenic spots are really helpless. A listed tourism enterprise manager told reporters.
Song citys performance announced that since January 24, 2020, all the companys tourism performance projects have been closed, which has a great impact on its financial performance in the first quarter.
Xian Tourism disclosed that the epidemic is expected to have a greater impact on the companys operating performance in the first quarter of 2020. The company said all its hotels, travel agencies, resorts and other operating stores were closed from January 27, and all tourism plans were cancelled.
Yunnan tourism also announced that since January 25, 2020, the companys subordinate scenic spots and scenic spots have been suspended from opening to the outside world, the subordinate travel agencies, tourism transportation, meetings and wedding banquets and other businesses have been temporarily closed, and the occupancy demand of hotel business and the project duration of garden and gardening business have also been affected by the epidemic situation. Due to the sudden outbreak, the companys performance in the first quarter of 2020 will inevitably be affected to some extent.
And tourism enterprises also feel powerless catering enterprises. During the Spring Festival, Jia Guolong, chairman of Xibei, called out that Xibeis cash flow can only last for three months to show the plight of the catering industry under the impact of the epidemic to the public: Haidilao lost 80 million yuan per day, Meizhous Dongpo revenue was only 5%, Quanjude transformed to sell vegetables, Xibei, Sipu Sipu and other well-known catering chain enterprises could not last for three months in cash.
According to the data from China cooking association, 78% of catering companies lost more than 100% of their revenue, 9% lost more than 90%, 7% lost between 70% and 90%, and only 5% lost less than 70%.
The outbreak occurred during the most important Spring Festival Golden Week of meal enterprises. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, 15.5% of the income of catering enterprises last year came from the Spring Festival period; Ren Zeping, chief economist of Evergrande group, estimated that the loss of the industrys retail sales in the seven days of the Spring Festival this year amounted to about 500 billion yuan.
According to the Research Report of Huachuang securities, in 2019, the labor cost of catering industry accounted for about 21.11% and the rent cost was about 9.3%. The two together accounted for about 30% of the income, forming the so-called rigid expenditure. It is estimated that the rigid expenditure of the catering industry in one year is as high as 1.42 trillion.
The novel coronavirus pneumonia is one disaster after another, which is struggling in the cold winter.
Our salary in December hasnt been paid yet, because iqiyi and Youku are still in arrears. They said they would pay it back after the end of the year, but in the end, they met with the epidemic again, and now they cant. We are still good. Many of the theatrical groups that have been working before have asked for stoppage in place and isolation in the hotel. We have lost even more. The financial staff of a film and television company in Shanghai told reporters that the duration of the film and television company was forced to be extended and the production cost increased significantly, so it was faced with the problem of additional investment.
What I know is the crew that made TV series in Wuhan. They started shooting around December last year. Now they have been shutting down. All the staff are on standby. All the living expenses have to be paid by the crew. Whose money is it? All the money burned is the money of the management, the money of the producer, the money burned out the play is over, or the management will continue to invest money, and the project will be yellow if the management does not invest money. Drama writer Huang Yichuan told reporters.
The downstream channel end suffered more severe impact. The cinema line was closed, which directly lost the two golden dates of Spring Festival and Valentines day.
How much is the Spring Festival schedule? Take the listed company, China film, for example. During the Spring Festival of 2019 (February 4-10), the holding cinemas of the company achieved a total box office revenue of 144 million yuan, accounting for 7.94% of the total box office revenue of the whole year. During the same period of this year, 141 holding cinemas of the company were closed.
According to statistics, the box office in 30 days from the first day of the first month accounts for almost one fifth of the total box office in the whole year. With the closure of the cinema and the withdrawal of films, the main business income of the cinema companies, such as advertising revenue, movie derivatives and catering sales revenue, is bound to decline significantly.
However, listed companies such as China film, Shanghai film and Hengdian film and television all said that the epidemic had a certain impact on the companys short-term operating performance, but did not affect the companys sustainable profitability. Hengdian film and television also said that it is firmly optimistic about Chinas film and television cultural industry, and will continue to maintain the speed of opening a new movie city in 2020 and improve market share.
Reflected in the secondary market, on the first trading day (February 3) after the Spring Festival, the market value of the cultural and leisure sectors fell by more than 9%. Chinas CITS suffered a one word drop stop, with Huangshan Tourism, Zhangjiajie, Guilin tourism and other tourism listed companies, as well as Huayi Brothers, Huace film and television, light media and other film and television listed companies all falling to varying degrees.
Since the tide of salvation
According to the latest data released by the National Health Commission, on February 26, 26 provinces and regions in the country newly diagnosed as 0, and the effect of epidemic prevention and control is obvious. All walks of life are returning to work in an orderly manner, especially in the catering tourism film and television industry.
At present, scenic spots across the country have been resumed in an orderly and controlled manner. On February 19, Zhejiang announced that the West Lake scenic area will open the closed park scenic spots in an orderly manner according to regulations, and the open-air toll scenic spots will be opened in principle according to normal business hours.
On the same day, Nanjing Municipal Bureau of culture and tourism informed the brief introduction of the work plan for orderly restoration of tourist attractions in Nanjing, and announced the decision to gradually resume the operation of tourist attractions in batches from February 20.
All scenic spots that have resumed operation have indicated that they will carry out real-time strict control over the number of tourists, and advocate online declaration of scheduled tours.
The head of a 5A level scenic spot in Yunnan told reporters that although the business of the tourism company was stagnant during the epidemic, it did not take a full holiday. The company started flexible work system on February 3 to prepare for the opening of the scenic spot in all aspects. At present, the scenic spot has been restored in batches, and the restoration time of the performing arts sector has not been determined. On the one hand, people are more intensive, on the other hand, the performance cost is higher. At present, the flow of people is small. In order to control the cost, the performance is suspended.
According to the data of Tongcheng Yilong scenic spot, as of February 24, the opening rate of scenic spots nationwide was 38.1%. In addition to Huangshan and Jiuhua Mountain, Hangzhou West Lake, Lingshan Giant Buddha, Zhouzhuang, Tongli ancient town, Qiandao Lake, Wuyuan, Shaoxing Shenyuan, Longmen Grottoes, Haijiao Tianya, etc. were opened successively from February 19.
With the resumption of work around the country, catering enterprises are also resuming in succession, and even some chain stores with high customer orders have begun to cooperate with take out platforms.
The scenic area has been opened one after another, and the catering enterprises have gradually returned to work. On February 15, the China Cuisine Association issued the notice on orderly resumption of work in the catering industry, encouraging enterprises to resume work in accordance with the relevant regulations of the local government in the case of epidemic prevention and control. On the same day, Haidilao resumed its take out business.
On February 23, Guangzhou Restaurant stores resumed business one after another. In addition, Taier pickled fish under the banner of jiumaojiu and other catering brands such as Runyuan Siji, a large catering company in Shenzhen, also said that they had reached strategic cooperation with the delivery platform and would provide healthy food for consumers on the premise of comprehensive epidemic prevention.
There have been many market forecasts and analysis before, and after the epidemic, the catering tourism industry will usher in retaliatory growth.
Novel coronavirus pneumonia, a novel coronavirus pneumonia, has been a major shock to the domestic catering and tourism industries. But it is a short-term impact. The new crown pneumonia epidemic is changing short-term consumer spending decisions, which has changed the way consumers spend their money, and short-term shocks will not fundamentally change consumer spending preferences and preferences, Zhou Maohua told reporters. China is in the stage of consumption upgrading, and peoples pursuit of high quality and quantity consumption will not change. The consumption expenditure of residents is delayed rather than contracted. After the epidemic is effectively controlled, the depressed consumption expenditure will rebound. In addition, the management also took a series of measures to stabilize the economy, employment and consumption in a timely manner, encouraged finance to coordinate relevant industries to take measures to facilitate residents consumption, and innovated business models to release potential demand.
In terms of film and television industry, major film and television production companies have started to work online in succession. However, as a crowded place, the time for cinema to return to work has not been determined.
According to the notice of resumption issued by many local governments, theaters and other entertainment places have been included in the industry of suspension of resumption. However, the preparation for resumption of work is already in progress.
On February 23, the proposal of the technical branch of China film distribution and projection Association on the preparations for the resumption of cinemas was released. The proposal points out that scientific and reasonable film arrangement should be carried out according to the configuration of screen and 3D equipment in the cinema. It is suggested that the air conditioning fresh air system should be cleaned and disinfected as a whole before the cinema returns to business, and that the screening room facilities should be carefully checked for potential safety hazards.
In terms of film and television base, Hengdian film and Television City issued the guiding opinions on February 10, and plans to resume work in stages, the first stage starting from February 13.
Will business logic be reconstructed
Opportunities often take the form of difficulties. The short-term suspension caused by the epidemic also brought new changes and thoughts to the high-speed development of the tertiary industry enterprises.
Due to the pressure of short-term performance of the tourism industry, the relevant listed companies have taken multiple measures to open the self rescue mode.
Jiuhua tourism said that the company and its subsidiaries have formulated a revenue increase and expenditure reduction plan, actively formulated a market expansion plan after the epidemic and the whole year, strengthened the maintenance of all kinds of equipment and facilities, and ensured to meet the needs of production and operation restoration in a timely manner.
Yunnan Tourism announcement said that the company will be ahead of time on the summer and the second half of the key work, and actively repair performance. In terms of tourism, culture, science and technology, we will promote the opening, construction and preliminary design and planning of theme park projects as planned. In addition, the company will comprehensively improve its R & D ability, creative design ability and market development ability, actively acquire project resources, transform and upgrade traditional scenic spots, increase consumption scenarios, and make sufficient preparations for the market demand rebound after the epidemic.
In the past, Lijiangs scenic spots were controlled and did not need publicity. There will be residual reception capacity after the outbreak. The net red diversion can be considered. Lijiang a scenic area staff told reporters.
According to the information collected at present, no major strategic adjustment has been made by tourism enterprises due to the epidemic.
Wu Zhixiang, founder of Tongcheng group, recently told the media that the outbreak lasted for as long as 3-5 months. For a large enterprise growing for more than 10 years, these times are only a few tens of their history. From this point of view, for many large-scale tourism enterprises, the epidemic is only a small twists and turns, which will not lead to a major adjustment of existing strategies.
Cao Zhixin, consultant of Tourism Association of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, said that after the epidemic, the tourism industry will usher in a new reshuffle and merger. From this perspective, the epidemic is also a running in period to speed up the competition and inclusiveness of the industry.
Compared with tourism enterprises, the catering industry has more flexibility in adjusting its business structure. At present, catering enterprises around the country have returned to work one after another, especially high-end single restaurants such as Haidilao and Taier pickled fish under the banner of jiumao9 have also begun to transfer to take out.
Take out business has also brought new changes and thinking to the traditional catering enterprises which mainly focus on the hall food. For example, how to reasonably configure the takeout business, what kind of dishes are more suitable for takeout, etc.
A social service analyst told reporters that the catering industry showed a significant Matthew effect in the epidemic, and large-scale enterprises with strong brand power can get more financial support from banks and investment companies. Small and micro enterprises are often difficult to sustain in the case of cash flow fracture. As some enterprises withdraw from the catering market, the outstanding enterprises that have carried the epidemic can fill the market share and build stronger competitive advantage with the help of online operation. In addition, after this round of epidemic, the catering industry may usher in the tide of listing. Through listing, enterprises can make up for cash reserves, open financing channels in the capital market, and improve their anti risk ability.
Different from catering tourism enterprises, the film and television industry has brought subversive cognition to the public in this epidemic.
In January 24th, embarrassed mother directed by Xu Zheng landed on the Internet platform of headlines on the Lunar New Years Eve tiktok and played it free. Although the move has been condemned by many film practitioners, it still brings new thinking to the profit model of the film industry.
Some people in the industry commented to the reporter: like Xu Zhengs short online video platform, its a great blow to offline theaters. He created such a precedent. Will other films follow such a cooperation mode?? This measure offends the off-line cinemas all over the country. I think such cases may appear sporadically in the future, but they will not be copied in a large area. Generally speaking, there is a one-off nature of choosing to play short videos.
Forced transformation or active change? There are still many institutions that say it is not appropriate to over interpret.
According to the court, the main sources of income from online movies are online movie viewing fees and click-to-click income. Generally, the online movie viewing fee is less than 2-3 yuan, and it is difficult to cover the cost by paying for movie viewing alone. Generally, the investment cost of online movie will be controlled below 5 million yuan, so the possibility of cost recovery can be basically realized by paying + click advertising. This means that the production of head films of more than 100 million yuan can only be shown in theaters to maximize the benefits.
In addition, the headline is a purchase behavior with a price of 630 million yuan, which is more about the positioning of diversion and quality promotion, and has no analogy to other mature online video platforms. According to the headline, the total broadcast volume in the previous three days exceeded 600 million, 180 million people watched. If we consider the number of people watching the movie and the number of hits doubled by 1-2 times, the final hits will be about 2 billion; compared with the online hits of a head TV play, the average qualified hits will be at least 3-4 billion, and the good ones will reach 5-10 billion, while the purchase price of the play is only 300-500 million. Therefore, it is not cost-effective for the platform to purchase large-scale films for online cinema, and this trend will not change in the medium term. Even if the headline wants to cut into the long video competition, the target of future purchase is still the drama, rather than the big production movie.
In the view of securities research in the new era, the key is the problem of difficult pricing before the film is released and the problem of the right of network information dissemination after the film is released. The vast majority of cinema films will go first to the cinema and then to the Internet, but there will be more online films, video platforms will partially divert the flow of cinema, and high-quality film and television content and producers will be more popular in the market.
Appeal for policy support
Under the call of the local government, some real estate enterprises, such as Wanda and Shimao, have taken the initiative to reduce rent and exempt from rent (Wanda alone has nearly 4 billion).
Local governments have also introduced relevant policies, including ensuring that the financing cost of small and micro enterprises is reduced, allowing enterprises to delay the payment of pension, unemployment, work-related injury insurance, etc. At present, Xibei has obtained the credit of 430 million yuan from SPDB, of which 120 million yuan has been received on February 7, and Haidilao has also obtained the credit of 2.1 billion yuan on February 23.
Peng Peng, executive chairman of the Guangdong Institute of institutional reform, told reporters that the epidemic had a huge impact on the catering industry. At present, the most effective way to save oneself is to sell semi-finished products and take out products online, and gradually restore the hall food. We call on local governments to provide appropriate tax relief and support. He also said that at present, tourism enterprises are also gradually returning to business, but with reference to the impact of SARS on the industry in 2003, the impact on enterprises can not be underestimated. He suggested that tourism enterprises should be given more care at the policy level, for example, in view of the epidemic prevention and control, the amount of compensation for tourism insurance should be increased appropriately; local office properties should be encouraged and coordinated to reduce rents for tourism enterprises; and tourism enterprises should be targeted Enterprises have introduced preferential policies for tax deduction and exemption; it is suggested to restart the golden week of May Day this year to stimulate the catering tourism industry and jointly help catering tourism enterprises overcome difficulties.
In the face of the urgent demand for stimulating consumption, it is necessary and reasonable to include the issuance of consumption vouchers in the policy drug package of economic anti epidemic.
We are eager for the epidemic to pass quickly. Due to the long-term suspension of work and heavy burden on employees salaries, we hope that the government will give some policy support in social security. A listed catering company executive told reporters.
With the same rigid expenditure as the catering industry, the cinema also called for property to reduce the rent of cinema houses.
Up to now, Wanda Group, poly business, Joy City holding, Longhu group, Xincheng holding, Cr land and other commercial real estate companies have successively launched policies of phased rent reduction, rent free and property fee free. Hengdian film and television city also promises to reduce the rent: during the period when the crew stops shooting, all the shooting bases and studios under Hengdian film and television city will be free of charge, and the room fee of the crew members in the hotels under Hengdian film and television city will be halved. Xiang Yong, vice president of the Cultural Industry Research Institute of Peking University, called on all ministries and commissions of the central government and local governments at all levels to issue effective and coordinated support policies, actively respond to the devastating impact of the epidemic on the cultural industry, promote the integrated development of the cultural industry and the merger and reorganization of marketization and rule of law, further play the supporting role of cultural finance, and stimulate cultural consumption, Promote the high-quality development of cultural industry. Source: responsible editor of Securities Times: Yang bin_nf4368
Up to now, Wanda Group, poly business, Joy City holding, Longhu group, Xincheng holding, Cr land and other commercial real estate companies have successively launched policies of phased rent reduction, rent free and property fee free.
Hengdian film and television city also promises to reduce the rent: during the period when the crew stops shooting, all the shooting bases and studios under Hengdian film and television city will be free of charge, and the room fee of the crew members in the hotels under Hengdian film and television city will be halved.
Xiang Yong, vice president of the Cultural Industry Research Institute of Peking University, called on all ministries and commissions of the central government and local governments at all levels to issue effective and coordinated support policies, actively respond to the devastating impact of the epidemic on the cultural industry, promote the integrated development of the cultural industry and the merger and reorganization of marketization and rule of law, further play the supporting role of cultural finance, and stimulate cultural consumption, Promote the high-quality development of cultural industry.