A-share trading breaks trillion institutions again: Gem needs to be vigilant in short term or overheating

category:Finance
 A-share trading breaks trillion institutions again: Gem needs to be vigilant in short term or overheating


In addition, a number of institutions believe that, given the abundant liquidity, the stock market should be able to expect unless the outbreak is repeated on a large scale. At present, the market volatility belongs to the callback after overheating, and is still optimistic about the long-term performance of the stock market.

All kinds of funds flow into the market

Before the festival, the A-share market was once in a depressed state, but after the festival, it quickly transited from a low to a high tide. The markets excitement is closely related to the continuous influx of funds.

After the festival, in order to cope with the impact of the pneumonia epidemic, the central bank once released more than a trillion yuan of liquidity in the early stage. Recently, Guo Shuqing, Secretary of the Party committee of the peoples Bank of China and chairman of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, also said that the peoples Bank of China and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission will comprehensively use a variety of policy tools to maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity. At the same time, we should take multiple measures to guide the financial industry to fully support enterprises to return to work in an orderly manner, while firmly holding the bottom line of no systemic financial risk.

The inflow of foreign capital has boosted the A-share market. In recent trading days, Beishang capital has increased its risk aversion and reduced its holdings of some A shares due to the huge earthquake on the periphery, but it still has a total net purchase of 20.7 billion yuan of a shares. On the one hand, Beishang capital continued to increase its holdings of white horse shares in traditional industries such as Guizhou Maotai, Gree Electric, Yili, etc., on the other hand, it also significantly increased its holdings of technology growth stocks such as Ningde era, Hengsheng electronics, Qiming star, etc. The reporter learned from a foreign-funded institution that the recent overseas issuance of several new Chinese market funds by the institution had a very positive response to overseas investors subscription.

In addition, according to the research results of Chongyang, the domestic long-term funds represented by bank financial management and insurance asset management significantly increased the allocation of equity assets after the festival. A large number of public fund managers also use their own funds to purchase a large number of partial share funds. This is not a passive action required by stability maintenance, but an active choice of its own.

Public funds are frequently used in China, and funds for public products are also actively entering the market. According to Dongfang wealth choice, 130 funds have been newly established in the market since February 3, with an effective subscription amount of more than 130 billion yuan. The new fund raising period is generally shortened, with 25 funds subscribing for less than 5 days and 12 funds ending on the day of issuance.

ETFs related to science and technology also attract a lot of gold. According to wind data statistics, from February 24 to 25, the net inflow of ETF funds of 5g communication theme of Huaxia China Securities Co., Ltd. was about 6.353 billion yuan, and the net inflow of ETF of semiconductor chip of Huaxia China Securities Co., Ltd., ETF of semiconductor industry of Cathay Pacific CES Co., Ltd., ETF of all semiconductor products and equipment of Guolian an China Securities Co., Ltd. and ETF of new energy automobile industry of Ping An China Securities Co., Ltd. was 2.353 billion yuan, 1.481 billion yuan, 1.040 billion yuan and 926 million yuan respectively. However, yesterdays popular technology ETFs made a sharp correction. As of the close, 5getf fell 7.26%, semiconductor 50ETF fell 9.34%, and chip ETF fell 9.21%.

Private equity also has a positive attitude towards the stock market. As of February 25, the number of newly filed private fund products this month reached 1089. A large-scale private equity person in East China said that the companys product issuance in the near future was more optimistic due to the influence of market atmosphere, and the companys position was higher and the overall A-share market was still optimistic. However, he also reminded that gem is currently too hot and investors need to pay due attention.

In addition, with the rise of a shares, the enthusiasm of retail investors for the stock market has increased. A person in charge of a medium-sized securities firm told reporters that the companys account opening volume rose week by week as a whole and was not affected by the epidemic. According to the data previously released by China Securities Depository and Clearing Co., Ltd., in January 2020, the number of new investors was 807000, of which 797500 were natural persons. The number of investors at the end of the period was 160.6 million, of which 160.2 million were natural persons.

Gem short term or overheating

In the face of huge capital inflow and even record high turnover, some investors think that the bull market is coming, while some investors think that the short-term market is overheated and the market has adjustment requirements. So, how long can a shares strong performance last?

Take the hot gem in the near future as an example. By the end of yesterdays trading, the total turnover of gem since February was 3.85 trillion yuan, the largest monthly turnover in history. Before that, there were four monthly transactions of more than 3 trillion yuan on GEM, respectively 3.29 trillion yuan in May 2015, 3.49 trillion yuan in June 2015, 3.55 trillion yuan in November 2015 and 3.01 trillion yuan in March 2019.

However, after the four days of trading, gem performance is not optimistic. After the trading volume in May 2015, the gem bull market is near the end, and it began to fall sharply after a slight surge in the early June. In November 2015, due to oversold and rebound, the trading volume of gem was also sharply enlarged, but that was also the end of the market. In December of that year, the overall volatility was small, and the market fell again in January of the next year. At the beginning of 2019, the market recovered again. By March, the trading volume of gem exceeded 3 trillion yuan again, but the market turned again. Then, it fell for two months, and the overall cross market fluctuated for more than half a year, and began to rise slowly again at the end of the year.

In addition, the insiders believe that due to the issuance of new shares, the market size is not the same. The current 3 trillion transactions cannot be compared with the previous ones simply, and the turnover rate can better explain the problem.

According to wind data statistics, the overall turnover rate of gem was as high as 5.99% yesterday, exceeding 5% for the seventh consecutive trading day, and even exceeding 6% on Monday and Tuesday.

In history, the turnover rate of GEM has also exceeded 5% four times, respectively from March 17, 2015 to April 13, 2015. Within 19 trading days, the growth rate of GEM has increased by 27.73%, accelerated after a slight adjustment, with the maximum growth rate exceeding 60% in more than one month; from May 11, 2015 to June 4, 2015, the turnover rate of GEM has remained at about 5% in 18 trading days, during which the maximum growth rate of gem is 39%; October 12, 2015 From November 30, 2015, the turnover rate of gem remained around 5% in 33 trading days, during which the growth rate of gem index was up to 35%, but then it also entered the top area; from February 25, 2019 to March 13, 2019, the turnover rate of gem in 12 trading days was maintained at about 5%, during which the index was up to 20%, but then it also entered the top area.

Technology stocks are normal

Yesterday, the full correction of technology stocks led to the growth enterprise market fell by more than 4.6%. This has also aroused widespread concern in the market.

Its very normal for technology stocks to pull back. The differentiation of technology companies will become more and more big. Technology stocks have been a unique trend in the past period of time. Some adjustments in such a trend are normal. There may be some pressure and momentum for the pullback. Tong Li, deputy general manager of China business fund research department, said, the core is to focus on the trend of the industry.

Boshi Fund said that the northbound funds had been net outflow for four consecutive days, while the balance of the two financing gradually increased, and there was a certain degree of deviation between the two. With the increase of the number of newly diagnosed cases in overseas markets, there has been a significant correction in the overseas market in the near future. The domestic market, especially the science and technology sector, has risen rapidly in the early stage, and there is a certain pressure of correction in the short term. In the short term, the epidemic is still one of the main factors affecting the market, and the two cities may maintain volatile market in the short term.

Penghua Fund said that liquidity easing is still the biggest driving force of the current market, which is still in the honeymoon stage. Liquidity easing pattern has become an important driver of market structural market performance, while the deregulation of capital market policies such as fixed increase further boosts short-term market risk preference. The core of follow-up macro-economy and market mainly focuses on three aspects: first, whether the epidemic will repeat, especially the pressure of overseas return; second, the pace of policy implementation, and the possible inflection point of liquidity easing; third, the pull of the actual progress of resumption of work on the real economy. At present, the first two aspects are in a relatively friendly stage, especially the liquidity situation, so the overall market is still in a workable stage, and the structural market probably continues.

Zheng Yuan, chief asset allocation officer and investment director of fof of Nord fund, also believes that the recent trading volume of the two markets exceeded trillion, reflecting high investor sentiment, and technology market should be the theme throughout the year. In the future, we will still be optimistic about TMT, new energy vehicles, photovoltaic and other sectors, and the market may rotate in these themes. For the periodic plate in the middle reaches, continuous observation is needed.

Yao Shuang, manager of China Merchants anying fund, said that in the medium term, with the implementation of the refinancing policy, the M & A activities and market value management of listed companies are expected to be active again. The reform dividend of the capital market and the policy guidance of the government to promote the proportion of direct financing still constitute the main driving force for the upward shock of the market valuation center.

Venture capital

Long term performance of stock market

After several consecutive days of gains, the stock market moved into adjustment. As the second largest institutional investor of a share, how does insurance capital adjust its stock investment strategy? Many investors of insurance institutions interviewed by the securities times believe that the current market volatility is a correction after the market overheating, and they are still optimistic about the long-term performance of the stock market.

The head of equity investment of an insurance asset management company told reporters yesterday that the short-term market will not rule out shocks for some time, but the long-term upward trend is expected to remain unchanged, and growth stocks should prevail in the future.

The head of investment of another medium-sized life insurance company also believes that, given the abundant liquidity, the stock market should be able to expect unless there is a large-scale recurrence of the epidemic.

Chen Dexian, chief investment officer of Ping An, said in an exclusive interview with the media a few days ago that this years performance of stocks may be better than that of bonds. Because the bond yield is already very low, so it is going down at present. The relative attractiveness of stocks is greater than that of bonds at the current level, but he said he would not pay too much attention to specific time points. There are band opportunities that will definitely be seized and operated, but structural opportunities and band operations account for a small proportion. He said.

For the mainstream insurance capital, the short-term rise and fall of the stock market will not affect the overall strategy of insurance capital equity investment, which is related to the long-term characteristics and investment mode of insurance capital. In general, the investment strategy of insurance assets and equity should be guided by the companys asset allocation strategy of large categories. In the absence of significant changes in the external environment and the companys risk appetite, it will not be in a large-scale in the short term. For example, the scale of Ping An insurance fund portfolio is 3.21 trillion yuan, but the ETF and outsourcing investment that are short-term operations add up to about 120 billion yuan. In terms of stock selection style, insurance institutions prefer to look for stock assets in the long-term investment perspective. Previously, heavy stocks were mostly in finance, real estate, consumption and preferred leading stocks in the industry with good liquidity, high dividend rate and strong profitability. Recently, with the rapid application of high-tech and the rise of large-scale health care industry, technology growth stocks and medical health stocks have become the hot industries concerned. Source: responsible editor of Securities Times: Yang bin_nf4368

For the mainstream insurance capital, the short-term rise and fall of the stock market will not affect the overall strategy of insurance capital equity investment, which is related to the long-term characteristics and investment mode of insurance capital. In general, the investment strategy of insurance assets and equity should be guided by the companys asset allocation strategy of large categories. In the absence of significant changes in the external environment and the companys risk appetite, it will not be in a large-scale in the short term. For example, the scale of Ping An insurance fund portfolio is 3.21 trillion yuan, but the ETF and outsourcing investment that are short-term operations add up to about 120 billion yuan.

In terms of stock selection style, insurance institutions prefer to look for stock assets in the long-term investment perspective. Previously, heavy stocks were mostly in finance, real estate, consumption and preferred leading stocks in the industry with good liquidity, high dividend rate and strong profitability. Recently, with the rapid application of high-tech and the rise of large-scale health care industry, technology growth stocks and medical health stocks have become the hot industries concerned.