Yesterday, gasoline sales at gas stations began to rise. On February 23, Zhen Rong told the interface news reporter that from the Spring Festival to the middle of February, the daily sales volume of gasoline in his gas station was only 20% before the festival, even down to 10% at one time. In the last two days, the sales volume recovered to 30% before the Festival.
In Taiyuan, Shanxi Province, Zhen Rong operates five private gas stations. Affected by the epidemic, traffic control was strict throughout the Spring Festival, people went out less, his gas stations were sparrow.
Zhen Rong can only stay at home and pay attention to the progress of the epidemic and traffic.
For Zhen Rong, this is good news, and the haze that has been hanging over her heart for nearly a month is beginning to fade.
Plummeting sales and operating rates
Affected by the epidemic, not only private gas stations, but also state-owned oil companies.
In January this year, the sales volume of PetroChinas refined oil products fell by 18% year on year. On January 25-30, the average daily sales volume of refined oil was 58% lower than the monthly plan, and nearly 60% lower than the sales volume on January 24. On February 20, Tang tingchuan, director of the strategy and Policy Department of the Policy Research Office of CNPC (hereinafter referred to as CNPC), said at the extraordinary period u00b7 extraordinary road series online live conference held by cippe Zhenwei international oil exhibition.
Affected by the epidemic, international oil prices have plummeted in the short term. On February 10, Brent and WTI oil prices fell to new lows in the past year, closing at $53.27/barrel and $49.57/barrel respectively, down 22.7% and 21.7% respectively from the high on January 6.
As a result, the selling price of domestic refined oil fell. Since February, the retail price of domestic gasoline and diesel has been reduced twice. After the two consecutive declines, gasoline prices have fallen by 835 yuan / ton and diesel prices by 805 yuan / ton this year.
Wholesale price of refined oil is no exception. According to jinlianchuang data, as of February 21, the average wholesale price of 0 u00d7 diesel oil was 6245 yuan / ton, down 6.71% month on month; the average wholesale price of 92 u00d7 diesel oil was 6333 yuan / ton, down 7.07% month on month; the average wholesale price of 95 u00d7 diesel oil was 6671 yuan / ton, down 6.79% month on month.
Natural gas consumption has also been affected, with inventories rising. According to Tang tingchuan, affected by the shutdown of industrial users, from January 25 to January 30, PetroChinas average daily natural gas sales volume was 40-50 million cubic meters lower than the plan, and it is expected that the sales volume of industrial users will maintain the current level before returning to work.
In the same period, the network management storage of CNPCs natural gas pipeline is 600 million cubic meters higher than the target storage; the gasification capacity of LNG terminal is reduced from 50 million cubic meters / day to about 16 million cubic meters / day.
As a result, the price of natural gas has fallen sharply. According to statistics of Zhuo Chuang information, as of February 18, the average ex factory price of LNG in China was 3375.79 yuan / ton, down 22.59% year-on-year, and the price of some cities and provinces decreased by 10%.
LNG spot arrival set a new low in history. As of February 17, the average CIF price of LNG in China, Japan and South Korea is 2.82 US dollars / million British heat, of which, the average CIF price of LNG in China is 2.82 US dollars / million British heat, equivalent to 1025.75 yuan / ton, down 72.7% year on year.
On February 25, the monitoring data of jinlianchuang, a bulk commodity consulting agency, showed that the epidemic affected the planned overhaul of some refineries. In February, the average operating rate of domestic main refineries fell to around 70%, down nearly 13% month on month; the average operating rate of local refineries fell below 40%, down more than 20% month on month.
Compared with the industry vertically, the oil and gas sales terminal and refining field are greatly affected. But horizontally, under the background that all industries in China, especially the service industry, have been greatly impacted, the impact on the oil and gas industry is normal. Yue laiqun, former deputy chief engineer of the oil and gas center of the Ministry of natural resources, told reporters at the interface.
Oil gas, masks and vegetables
At present, the upstream exploration and development of the oil and gas industry has suffered the least impact. The oil and gas production of three barrels of oil is relatively stable.
On February 21, the internal staff of CNPC Changqing Oilfield told the interface news reporter that the production and operation of the oil and gas field were stable, but due to traffic control and 14 day isolation and other factors, the rework rate of the staff was low, which increased the work intensity of the staff on duty.
Drilling and other upstream exploration businesses are basically unaffected. According to the previous work cycle, the drilling business in the northern region started large-scale construction after the weather turned warm and the land thawed in March; the drilling construction in the southern region started after the rainy season.
As the largest oil and gas field of PetroChina, the production target of Changqing Oilfield this year is 60 million tons. During the Spring Festival, Changqing Oilfield produces about 135 million cubic meters of natural gas per day, and the daily average sales volume of natural gas exceeds the planned 4.12 million cubic meters. The total production, daily output and external supply of natural gas are all record high.
Sinopecs oil and gas production also maintained growth. In January of this year, Sinopec produced 2.98 million tons of crude oil, the same as the same period last year, and 2.62 billion cubic meters of natural gas, an increase of 5.7%.
On February 12, CNOOC (00883. HK) announced that Bozhong 34-9 oilfield had been put into production. The field is expected to achieve a peak output of more than 225 thousand barrels per day in 2022.
Production in oil and gas fields needs continuity and stability. In general, it is not allowed to shut in the well and limit production, otherwise it is very difficult to resume production. Liu Yijun, deputy director of China Research Center for oil and gas industry development of China University of petroleum, believes that although the current decline in oil product consumption is large, it is only a short-term factor.
In the turbulent and complex international situation, China must increase the supply of domestic oil and gas resources to ensure energy security, which is the general trend. Liu Yijun said.
At the beginning of last year, three barrels of oil successively issued seven year action plan to strengthen domestic exploration and development. Subsequently, the domestic oil and gas exploration and development of the field of rapid report. In 2019, Chinas crude oil production ended its three-year decline, with 191 million tons more.
According to the report on the development of domestic and foreign oil and gas industries in 2019 issued by China Petroleum Economic and Technological Research Institute, the domestic crude oil production will reach 194 million tons in 2020, an increase of 1.57% year-on-year, due to the further effect of increasing domestic storage and production.
In the face of the epidemic, the work of upstream enterprises remains unchanged. However, yuelaiqun is worried that if the epidemic continues for some time, the domestic refining and chemical operation rate is still low, and the end of product oil consumption is low, the phenomenon of holding the reservoir and pipe of oil and gas resources will be more serious.
This is one of the headaches for oil companies. In response to the impact of the black swan incident, oil companies have taken a number of measures.
Tang said that at present, PetroChina strictly controls the import of offshore crude oil, takes measures such as ordering less, delaying the arrival of goods and international resale, strictly controls the export of refined oil, strives to expand the export of refined oil, and arranges the shipping schedule in advance.
According to the monitoring data of jinlianchuang, at present, the export profit of domestic gasoline and diesel is considerable, and the refineries are highly motivated to export. In 2020, the total amount of the first batch of oil product export quota issued is 28 million tons, up 30.27% year-on-year, and the export task of the main refinery is relatively heavy.
For the natural gas business, CNPC reduced the gas production of gas storage from the previous 74 million cubic meters / day to 40 million cubic meters / day. Tang tingchuan said that the import pipeline gas from Central Asia, Russia and Myanmar has been reduced according to the force majeure of the outbreak.
In addition, PetroChina delayed the arrival time of imported LNG ship, continued to use the receiving terminal for adjustment; increased communication and coordination with downstream users, well prepared for the resumption of chemical fertilizer, chemical industry and other enterprises, and strive to further increase sales.
As the largest medical and health material supplier with an annual output of nearly one million tons in China, Sinopec announced on February 6 that it has put 15000 tons of medical and health raw materials such as polypropylene on the market, and it is expected to continue to produce about 80000 tons of raw materials in February, and will increase the supply of raw materials for disinfectant. Polypropylene is an important raw material for masks.
Some refining and chemical enterprises of CNPC also began to transform, upgrade and expand production. As of February 9, PetroChina has produced 64300 tons of medical materials.
In the product oil sales end, two barrels of oil expanded the non oil business, selling vegetables in convenience stores in some provinces and cities for the first time. Sinopec Beijing Petroleum Company and PetroChina Liaoning Sales Anshan Company have launched green vegetable packages at their respective gas stations.
In the sales mode, two barrels of oil also began to use the way of not getting off the car, not entering the store for invoicing, not contacting with shopping.
Post epidemic changes
The turning point of the new crown epidemic has not yet arrived, but industry experts generally believe that the impact of the epidemic on the international oil price and domestic oil and gas market is short-term and limited.
Liu Chaoquan, vice president of China Petroleum Economic and Technological Research Institute, predicted that after the outbreak, the average international crude oil price remained at 57-64 US dollars / barrel.
Some institutions also believe that the outbreak of the epidemic in Iran, Iraq, Italy, South Korea and other countries in the past week will bring new uncertainty to the international oil market, so it is necessary to re evaluate the impact of the epidemic on the market.
On February 24, international oil prices fell sharply after rising for several consecutive days, and Brent crude oil futures once fell more than 5%. As of February 25, Beijing time, WTI crude oil futures for April delivery fell 3.65% to US $51.43/barrel, while Brent crude oil futures fell 3.76% to US $56.3/barrel.
For example, the lack of product demand leads to the reduction of order quantity and revenue of enterprises, the limited arrival of warehousing and logistics personnel, the slow recovery of production capacity, the increased pressure of enterprise cost and capital, and the uncertainty of epidemic evolution affecting the production arrangement of enterprises.
The enterprise also hopes to get financial support, relieve the financial pressure, gradually improve the warehousing and transportation links, and strengthen the circulation.
At the press conference of the State Council on February 24, Cong Liang, a member of the Party group and Secretary General of the national development and Reform Commission, said that various departments around the country have successively introduced effective hedging policies. For example, reduce the cost of enterprise energy use; set up a special re loan of 300 billion yuan to provide low interest funds for key enterprises of prevention and control materials; reduce enterprise social security fee and employee medical insurance fee in stages, and reduce value-added tax and income tax for some industries and individuals.
After the outbreak, there will be new mergers and reorganization, which is expected to be higher than the previous year and last year. Small and medium-sized enterprises should make good use of national policies. Liu Chaoquan suggested, in particular, making good use of financial instruments. In addition, the oil product sales end will pay more attention to the online service mode. Yan Jiantao believes that the sales of refined oil will gradually move from offline to online, and it is a general trend to build more oil and gas trading platforms; in the face of consumer business, it will increasingly enter the white hot competition. It is also an important task for enterprises to strengthen management to improve the emergency material reserve system as soon as possible. Tang tingchuan suggested that enterprises should systematically sort out the shortcomings of the emergency materials reserve system exposed in the epidemic, and constantly improve the relevant working mechanism and emergency plan from various links such as the scale structure, production organization capacity and source channels of emergency materials reserve. (at the request of the interviewer, Zhen Rong is a pseudonym) source: editor in charge of interface news: Yang Bin Gu nf4368
After the outbreak, there will be new mergers and reorganization, which is expected to be higher than the previous year and last year. Small and medium-sized enterprises should make good use of national policies. Liu Chaoquan suggested, in particular, making good use of financial instruments.
In addition, the oil product sales end will pay more attention to the online service mode. Yan Jiantao believes that the sales of refined oil will gradually move from offline to online, and it is a general trend to build more oil and gas trading platforms; in the face of consumer business, it will increasingly enter the white hot competition.
It is also an important task for enterprises to strengthen management to improve the emergency material reserve system as soon as possible.
(at the request of the interviewer, Zhen Rong is a pseudonym)