A non-woven fabric manufacturer in Quanzhou reported on the 25th that the middle m-layer had not accepted the order for the time being, and the prices of blue and white colors for the inner and outer S-layer were 140000 yuan and 130000 yuan per ton, and even the prices of other enterprises had reached 150000 yuan to 160000 yuan / ton.
According to the 21st century economic reporter, the soaring price of melt blown cloth is caused by the supply and demand relationship in the final analysis. In terms of supply, the scale of domestic capacity is relatively limited, and the new capacity equipment needs to be customized to foreign institutions, and the arrival cycle needs three to six months. The demand side is affected by the sudden increase of demand brought by the short supply of masks, the expansion of production of enterprises in the industry and the concentration of enterprises outside the industry.
The contradiction between supply and demand is hard to solve in the short term
Nonwovens, called nonwovens in Japan, can be seen literally that they are not textile products themselves, but superfine short fibers formed by extruding resin slices through a nozzle and being stretched by high-speed hot air flow. Therefore, most of the upstream are chemical material manufacturers.
Among them, there are some differences in the production process of S-layer and m-layer, for example, m-layer has an additional link of modified plastics.
From the performance of the price end, the price of PP special material upstream of the melt blown cloth is relatively stable. Y381h produced by the company is mainly used to produce layer s, and has made a promise not to increase the price before. Donghua energy (002221. SZ) told reporters Friday.
Another company, daoen stock (002838. SZ), which produces polypropylene melt blown special materials, mainly uses its products to produce layer m, but the company did not disclose the current product price to reporters.
The cost of raw materials and other aspects does rise, but the price performance cannot be compared with that of melt blown non-woven fabric. A person from a listed company in South China who recently changed its production to melt blown non-woven fabric told reporters Friday that although the specific product price could not be disclosed, the companys product price did rise to a certain extent.
He said that there are two kinds of prices: Civil grade and medical grade. The price of civil grade is about 150000 yuan per ton, while the price of medical grade is more than 200000 yuan.
This result is basically consistent with the price given by the above quotation from Quanzhou. The melt blown non-woven fabric used for the m-layer of mask has increased more than 10 times compared with that before the epidemic.
Whats more, melt blown nonwovens are out of stock.
Not only the enterprises mentioned above have stopped receiving orders, but also an industry communication group has directly posted notice that non-woven fabric is not only scarce, but also the manufacturers of melt blown fabric have been arranged in March, and even some manufacturers have been arranged in April, which can be said that melt blown non-woven fabric is no longer available.
The above-mentioned stocks of Shenzhen traders are also imported from abroad, and are sold at a conscience price of 150000 yuan / ton.
All of them have been ordered, and channel enterprises are now producing according to orders. When they are sold out, there will be no more. They cant get the goods, he said
This contradiction between supply and demand is expected to be difficult to solve in the short term, with the core in the input cycle of new capacity.
The melt blown equipment needs to be customized with a delivery period of at least three months. In addition to the high production cost and production difficulty, the capacity can not be released quickly in a short time. There are also relevant equipment manufacturers in China, but the capacity scale of the device is too small to compare with the imported equipment. Said the Shenzhen trader.
According to other data, Beijing seeqi Machinery Equipment Manufacturing Co., Ltd. produces PP melt blown filter element machine and other products, but the daily capacity of small machines and large machines of the company is 60-80 kg and 1500-1800 kg respectively.
Price surge hit upstream and downstream?
Although the price of non-woven fabric is outstanding, its upstream and downstream situation should be relatively stable.
First of all, the upstream polypropylene, after a sharp fall after the festival, although the futures price rebounded, but the range is very limited, which can be ignored.
In the PP non-woven special material manufacturing enterprises, except for the price of the melt blown special material of dawn Co., Ltd., Donghua energys y381h has promised not to increase the price, and the change of the price end is also limited.
By contrast, affected by the epidemic, the two listed companies are in full production status, and the sales volume in the first quarter is expected to be higher than that in the same period of previous years. However, due to the problem of revenue share, it is not known how much the overall performance can be pulled.
The existing production capacity of mask manufacturers is mostly allocated by the local government in a unified way, and the number of products entering the market is relatively limited, so there is no basis for a substantial increase in price.
After completing a certain amount of tasks, the remaining masks can be distributed by the enterprises themselves, but it is not easy to complete the basic tasks, a person from a medical equipment company with a daily output of 50000 medical masks told reporters Friday
Therefore, the mask manufacturers only enjoy the increase of sales volume, and it is difficult to benefit from the change of price level.
However, in contrast, the A-share market is more interested in speculation themes and market sentiment.
In particular, against the background of the global epidemic upgrading in recent two days and the large increase of confirmed cases in many countries, the wind mask index rose for two consecutive days, rising 5.72% on the basis of 7.46% on the 24th and 5.72% on the 25th.
So far, the average growth rate of 30 stocks included in the index has exceeded 35%, and the cumulative growth rate of 2 stocks has exceeded 100%.
In addition to the direct impact of the above sectors, the rise of non-woven fabric prices may have an indirect impact on other industries.
For example, the raw materials also include non-woven baby diapers, whose surface coating and non-woven PE film are made of non-woven fabric.
In this regard, people in the field of sanitary materials think that although it is different from the non-woven fabric used for masks, there is a certain overlap in the source materials. Considering the shortage of non-woven fabric supply and the factors of the original diaper enterprises changing production, the supply of relevant products may be unbalanced.
In the middle of February, there were also cases in which Hunan enterprises stopped supplying the above-mentioned other sanitary materials due to the production of non-woven materials for masks and protective clothing. However, up to now, no cases of obvious price adjustment have been reported.
In terms of polypropylene at the source, its own supply is not lacking, but the new production capacity of non-woven fabric, especially melt blown non-woven fabric is insufficient, resulting in the imbalance of supply and demand in a single link of the industrial chain.
Source: responsible editor of 21st century economic report: Wang Xiaowu NF