CDCs latest heavyweight paper: the number of infected people soared from January 11 to 20

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 CDCs latest heavyweight paper: the number of infected people soared from January 11 to 20


Divide the outbreak into five periods

The results showed that novel coronavirus infected persons may have appeared in Wuhan and Hubei before December 31, 2019, and increased by 653 people in the next 10 days (88.5% of them in Hubei province), and then increased 5417 (77.6% in Hubei province) between January 11, 2020 and January 11, 2020, and the outbreak occurred in the last 10 days of January, with 26468 new cases occurring. (Hubei accounts for 74.7%), but with the upgrading of prevention and control measures, the number of new people slowed down to 12030 in the first 11 days of February.

The time period of the outbreak in the past one month, especially the period from January 11 to 20 and the 5417 new infections in the period, given in this paper, also confirms the information that our reporter of Global Times learned in the interview with the local hospital in Wuhan in the past period, that is, Zhong Nanshan, leader of the high level expert group of the National Health Commission, 202 Before it was announced that the virus could be transmitted from person to person on the evening of January 20, 2000, the clinical staff of many hospitals in Wuhan had realized the seriousness of the problem when they received a large number of fever patients with unknown causes.

However, these clinical concerns have not been translated into effective prevention and control measures in time. It was not until January 22 that Hubei started the level II emergency response to public health emergencies.

The virus spread through the hospital and infected the medical staff

Another interesting part of this paper is the first analysis of 1688 confirmed cases of medical staff as of February 11.

According to the data given in the paper, the infection cycle of medical staff is very consistent with the overall outbreak cycle. That is to say, in the early stage of January 2020, there was a clue of infection of medical staff, but the situation was not serious at that time. From the middle of January 2020, the number of infected people increased dramatically, and the outbreak came in the last 10 days of January.

However, the paper also points out that 85.4% of the 1688 confirmed cases of medical staff are mild illness, and the mortality rate is lower than that of other cases. The reason may be that these medical staff are in-service staff, generally under 60 years old.

In addition, the paper also said that although the virus did infect many medical staff through hospital transmission, there is still no evidence of a super communicator event in any hospital.

Novel coronavirus is also being discussed in the China CDC paper. Through the analysis of more than 70000 cases, the crude case fatality rate in this paper is 2.3%, among which the crude case fatality rate in Hubei Province is 2.9%, while that outside Hubei Province is 0.4%, the former is 7.3 times of the latter.

For the reasons of this gap, Jiao Yahui, deputy director of the State Health Commissions Medical Administration Bureau, gave some reference yesterday. According to CCTV news, he said the prevention and control in Wuhan lasted a long time. Because the prevention and control measures were not put in place in time, many community cases were not treated in time, and the average time from the onset of severe cases to hospitalization was 9.84 days, and the nearly 10 days waiting missed the best time.

The epidemic situation tends to decline, but we should be alert to the rebound of returning to work

Finally, the paper of China CDC wrote:

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