More than 10 provinces and cities loose policy and stimulate the real estate market to stimulate the economy?

category:Finance
 More than 10 provinces and cities loose policy and stimulate the real estate market to stimulate the economy?


Hard core rescue measures did not appear

Lets first look at the help policies that have been introduced in various regions.

Wuxi City, Jiangsu Province, issued 17 policies and measures Tuesday to support real estate and construction enterprises in terms of relaxing pre-sale conditions, ensuring liquidity, tax relief and allowing late payment of land transfer price.

Another example is Xian, aiming at the land market, to reduce the burden of land auction for real estate enterprises.

Shanghai Municipal Bureau of planning and natural resources also issued land use support policies to adjust the payment method and time limit of land price.

According to the Shanghai New Deal, if affected by the epidemic situation and fails to pay the land price and deliver the land as agreed in the land transfer contract, it will not be regarded as a breach of contract, and there will be no overdue fine and liquidated damages. The transferee can apply to the transferor for delay or installment payment.

Zhejiang Province has to a certain extent relaxed the restrictions on the use of pre-sale funds of commercial housing.

According to Zhejiang regulations, the pre-sale funds of commercial housing during the epidemic prevention and control period can be used for other expenses such as preliminary engineering cost, management cost, sales cost, financial cost, etc. from 20% of the total amount to 30%. For the residential projects completed and accepted before June 30, 2020, the warranty fee for residential property can be postponed for 3 months.

Nanchang city is allowed to delay the signing of transaction confirmation and transfer contract in the process of land transfer, allow to delay the payment of transfer fee, allow to delay the opening and completion of the project, adjust the proportion of land transfer bidding deposit, etc.

Shenzhen has issued a novel coronavirus for housing fund, on the one hand, it supports the difficulties in the payment of the public housing fund and the time limit for deposit. On the other hand, it is stipulated that the new public can be applied for extension of the public loan period and the conditions of public loan application.

At present, local policies are relatively prudent, mainly focusing on the rescue of real estate enterprises, easing the pressure of corporate liquidity, reducing the delivery default, etc., while the core control policies such as purchase restriction, loan restriction and mortgage interest rate, which have a great impact on real estate demand, are rarely involved.

In terms of the policy strength, local policies still belong to the small adjustment of the citys policy, and they have not broken the red line of housing is not fried.

This is actually a dilemma.

Rescue may enlarge the risk of the real estate market, aggravate the contradiction, and make the hard to achieve regulatory results fall short; if not, considering the impact of the real estate industry on dozens of upstream and downstream industries, once a large area of capital chain fracture occurs in the real estate enterprises, the impact on the economy is self-evident.

So what we are seeing now is a small adjustment of policies around the country to hedge the impact of the epidemic on the real estate market, but a large-scale policy loosening has not occurred.

In this outbreak, there are many industries that have been hit hard, and there are many priority tasks to stabilize the economy.

Although the real estate market has also been greatly impacted by the epidemic, it is generally believed that the demand for house purchase is only delayed and has not disappeared. Real estate enterprises only need to strive to maintain the cash flow, waiting for the epidemic to pass, and still can achieve performance recovery.

On February 12, the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting. When deploying economic work, the key words mentioned at the meeting include: tax reduction and fee reduction, differentiated preferential financial services, employment priority policies, support for small and medium-sized micro enterprises, release emerging consumption potential, and stabilize foreign demand.

What we need to see is that the current economic environment and the development stage of the real estate market are quite different from those in 2003, and the market reaction after the crisis can not be simply compared.

In 2003, Chinas real estate market is in the initial stage of market-oriented development. The market scale is relatively small and the growth is relatively fast. According to the data of China Index Research Institute, the real estate market size last year has reached 5.1 times of the market size in 2003, and the sales amount is more than 20 times of that year. The momentum for the market to continue to grow significantly has weakened.

Ni Pengfei, director of the center for urban and competitiveness research of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out that at present, real estate has had a certain restraining effect on the healthy development of economy.

Its performance lies in that the net contribution of real estate to economic growth has changed from positive to negative, the high house price has squeezed out the consumption and livelihood of the whole household sector, the over development of real estate has led to the imbalance of economic structure and hindered the adjustment of economic structure and industrial upgrading, and the real estate risk is an important risk source of Chinas economy.

Ni Pengfei believes that the real estate regulation in the past two years has just achieved preliminary results. If the real estate stimulus policy is implemented, it will not only fail to hedge the economic downturn, but also make the above problems turn worse.

2. It is really necessary to pay attention to the liquidity risk of real estate.

According to the statistics of Kerui Research Center, 24 cities closed at zero during the Spring Festival holiday week (from New Years Eve to the sixth day of the Lunar New Year), down 93% month on month compared with the week before the outbreak, and then expanded to 27 cities at zero in the following week, down 95% compared with the week after last years festival.

The means of self rescue of real estate enterprises are relatively limited. According to the statistics of Kerui Research Center, since the end of January, 143 real estate enterprises have opened online sales offices to transfer marketing cases to online. But the actual effect of this is limited.

In addition, 2020 is the peak of debt maturity of real estate enterprises, and the liquidity risk of real estate enterprises increases.

The all union real estate chamber of Commerce pointed out that the real estate industry has a large volume and a long upstream and downstream industrial chain. If the real estate industry is in turmoil, the upstream and downstream industrial chains are bound to suffer from different degrees of impact, and are likely to cause financial risks. Therefore, it is very important to stabilize the development order of the real estate industry.

So it is not difficult to understand that in the near future, local governments have introduced policies to help real estate enterprises mainly from the perspective of alleviating liquidity pressure and reducing liquidity risk.

3. We should be alert to policy stampede.

Because the local governments money bag is directly related to land finance, there has been a strong impulse to relax the control of the real estate market.

However, the real estate market is not only related to developers and local governments, but also to billions of stock leveraged debt of numerous ordinary families. It can be said that the consequences of excessive stimulation of real estate are incalculable. Since the end of last year, the central government has repeatedly stressed the main tone of real estate market regulation. The industry believes that even if the local government properly relaxes some policies to help the real estate market recover, this red line is still unbreakable, real estate speculation is still the object of strict policy control. For the risk of retaliatory rebound of house prices, Ni Pengfei pointed out that after the epidemic, sales volume will recover and grow greatly, but the possibility of retaliatory rebound of house prices is less. Chinas long-term real estate management mechanism has been basically established, which can automatically respond to market fluctuations. Under the policy operation of two-way regulation, if the monthly and quarterly fluctuations of the urban real estate market exceed a reasonable range, it may be interviewed and held accountable by the national and provincial authorities. Source of this article: Guoshi direct train editor in charge: Yang bin_nf4368

However, the real estate market is not only related to developers and local governments, but also to billions of stock leveraged debt of numerous ordinary families. It can be said that the consequences of excessive stimulation of real estate are incalculable.

Since the end of last year, the central government has repeatedly stressed the main tone of real estate market regulation. The industry believes that even if the local government properly relaxes some policies to help the real estate market recover, this red line is still unbreakable, real estate speculation is still the object of strict policy control.

For the risk of retaliatory rebound of house prices, Ni Pengfei pointed out that after the epidemic, sales volume will recover and grow greatly, but the possibility of retaliatory rebound of house prices is less. Chinas long-term real estate management mechanism has been basically established, which can automatically respond to market fluctuations. Under the policy operation of two-way regulation, if the monthly and quarterly fluctuations of the urban real estate market exceed a reasonable range, it may be interviewed and held accountable by the national and provincial authorities.