In 2002-2003, the year-on-year growth rate of the trading area (current month value) of commercial residential buildings in China showed an obvious inverted U-shape. In the second half of 2003, compared with the first half of the year, the year-on-year growth rate of the trading volume decreased by 11%.
In August 2003, the State Council clearly defined the real estate industry as the pillar industry of the national economy, and the introduction of the rescue policy subsequently led to the overheating of the real estate market, which began to be regulated again in March 2004.
They deduced that in order to cope with the downward pressure on the economy in 2020, a new round of policy measures is expected in the second quarter, which will stimulate the recovery of trading volume.
But the author believes that this is just some peoples Hope for their own interests. Because the biggest variable of this years property market is not the property market itself.
Although I havent experienced the real estate market in 2003, I think 2020 is quite different from 2003 according to my working experience
The development stage is different: in 2003, it is in the rising stage of Chinas urbanization, with a large number of demand for urban settlement; in 2020, Chinas urbanization has been in the second half, and the driving force for urban settlement is obviously insufficient.
Leverage level is different: in 2003, there is no large number of high turnover developers, and the general leverage rate is low; in 2020, the first and second tier cities are basically high turnover enterprises, which will be shut down and closed down, and there will be no xiaoyangchun after the previous years Festival, which will face great financial pressure.
Different media: in 2003, the sales offices could only sit for sale and advertise in newspapers; now, online house watching and online house selling offices have sprung up, and they can also see houses without leaving home, but in the short term, they still cant relieve the sales pressure.
More importantly, compared with 2020, Chinas economic volume, structure and domestic and foreign political and economic situation have changed greatly.
Even during SARS, the growth rate in 2003 was still 10%. But in 2020, according to Rens teams forecast, even if the most optimistic forecast, the annual growth rate will be 5.4%. In 2003, the industrial structure was still dominated by second industry, most of which were large factories and large local state-owned enterprises. To be clear, some of them could be supported by the government. But by 2020, when the three industries are dominant, the service industry will have the greatest impact, most of which are private enterprises, small and micro enterprises, and no one will support them.
So the biggest factor affecting the real estate market is the economic environment. Chairman Xibei said that the loan payment can only last for three months; the Grandmas family said that the business can only be closed for two months; and the king of songs in Beijing terminated the labor contract with all employees.
Even if these catering and leisure places are opened, it is difficult to restore the previous sales level immediately due to the aftershock of the epidemic. This is no doubt worse for the service industry which is originally high cost and labor-intensive. Under the haze of the epidemic, this years wealth reduction or even wage reduction and unemployment will be a big probability crisis in 2020.
Caring about the real estate market is better than caring about the city
Of course, we will not rule out that some policies may be introduced to loosen the previous tight regulation. But real estate cant be alone outside the economic ship. It depends on two external factors: the control of the epidemic and the recovery of the economy.
These two points not only depend on the national environment, but also show obvious urban differentiation. In the past, the news of the real estate market often said urban differentiation, which is mostly from the perspective of economy and scale. Generally speaking, it refers to the differentiation of first, second tier and third, fourth tier cities. But in front of this epidemic, we also feel the urban differentiation. This differentiation is not necessarily related to economy and scale, but to the management level of a city.
Since 2017, more than 100 cities have joined in the war to rob people. In 2019 alone, more than 30 cities across the country have successively introduced new settlement policies. Wuhan is the beneficiary of the war of robbing people in recent years. In 2018, the total registered population of Wuhan was 8.8373 million, an increase of 30800 over the previous year.
There are 80 colleges and universities in Wuhan, ranking the third in China. In 2017, Wuhan joined in the war of robbing people, which made it clear that one million college students should be retained in the next five years and the plan of one million college students staying in China should be implemented. In 2017, the registered population of Wuhan was 8.5365 million, an increase of 198000 over the previous year. In 2018, Wuhan continued to optimize the settlement policy, built Yangtze River Science City and Yangtze River Youth City, raised University rental housing, and vigorously introduced talents. But after the epidemic, will there be some new Wuhan people Peacocks Flying Southeast? Put a question mark here.
In the epidemic, we also saw the achievements of the government team in the parcel post area: for example, Zhejiang Province, as a major disaster area, let people feel the temperature of the city: the epidemic prevention and control press conference is released every day, and always keeps a high degree of information transparency; the masks in Hangzhou are pre arranged online, and are delivered to the door by specially assigned persons; the same is the Red Cross, Hangzhou and Wuhan are different from each other The state Red Cross will publicize clearly even one yuan of money, and even publish it in the mainstream newspapers. What impresses the author most is the isolation measures of Wenzhou. For the elderly who cant use mobile phones to shop and buy vegetables, there are specially assigned persons to connect with each other by telephone, and help the elderly place orders and deliver goods.
The temperature of a city depends on its attitude towards the old, the weak, the sick and the vulnerable. Soft power can better reflect the level of urbanization. The level of urbanization does not depend on how many subways and buildings have been built, how much GDP has been created, but also on soft power, management level and management ability. Only in the city with temperature and security can we live and work in peace and contentment, realize self-government and give full play to our own value.
Nowadays, Chinese cities are also very difficult. To attract talents, we need to tell more stories. Many business cards need to be printed, such as National Central City, world city, smart city, livable city, creative city, sponge City, garden city, healthy city There are so many names that its hard to sort them out. Citizens often fail to understand the relationship with their own lives.
Most of these business cards are experts and scholars, who put forward some theories and researches in the process of global urbanization. Different business cards have different emphases.
Taking the smart city as an example, at the two sessions of Wuhan in the early stage of the epidemic, the report on the work of the government proposed that we should promote the innovation and development of the digital economy, and focus on the integrated application of big data, blockchain, artificial intelligence, 5g and other new generation information technologies. We should seize 5g highlands and promote the construction of smart cities. In 2020, Wuhan will build a 5g network covering the whole city and be fully commercial. At that time, 30000 5g base stations will be all over Wuhan. But at the beginning of the epidemic, people saw the situation that even the medical supplies needed to be transferred by hand.
In the face of major disasters, how much benefits have citizens received from all kinds of intelligent technologies? All the citizens need at this time is a mask and a bottle of disinfectant. How many cities can do the same as Hangzhou, mobile phone online booking, special delivery door-to-door?
Technology serves people, which is the original intention of smart city. Smart city is a dynamic process, just like healthy city. Healthy Cities, especially in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai, such as Shanghai, Suzhou, Hangzhou and other cities, are currently the hot spots of development. The aging of these cities is prominent, and health is a big problem.
Healthy city also has its own index system. In 2016, the national health and Health Commission released the list of 38 first batch of pilot healthy cities. Among them are Shanghai (Jiading District), Suzhou, Hangzhou, Wuxi and other cities. They all showed a higher level of management in the anti epidemic war. Yichang, the only healthy city in Hubei Province, has far fewer confirmed cases than Wuhan, Huanggang, Ezhou and other urban areas.
No matter smart city or healthy city, in the final analysis, it is people-oriented. After the epidemic, I hope our city can return to people and life itself more.
What is the impact of the epidemic on real estate? It cant be concluded too soon. But the product logic of real estate also needs constant revision. If the epidemic can promote some planning and product improvement, it is also a good thing.
In Chinas 30 years of real estate history, the product logic has not changed, which is Li Ka Shings famous saying: location, location, location.
It refers to the location of the lot as the center, there are people flow, gather popularity, so the land appreciation is fast. Therefore, the land price is the highest cost. If land is acquired at the peak of land price in 2016 and 2017, the product distribution rate will be reduced. Many customers who want to improve their house purchase may feel that the house price is getting more and more expensive, but the products of new houses are getting worse and worse.
In the second half of urbanization, with the wider traffic network and more supporting facilities, coupled with the impact of this epidemic, there may also be a certain degree of anti urbanization. At this time, people will pay more and more attention to the environment and planning, and house selection will return to the community and the product itself.
The value sequence of customers will change: from subway, supporting facilities to green environment and community density; from facade, building materials to house type permeability; from hardware to software property service. Look at the property in the current community, which plays an important role in this epidemic. Do you strictly isolate the entrance and exit for temperature measurement, disinfect the elevator every day, throw garbage for the owner, clean the central air conditioning, etc. A small step in property services is likely to be a big step in family health! After the epidemic, the real estate market will continue to differentiate, and the premium of products and services will gradually increase. The author is the official account of WeChats official account, Qin Shuos circle of friends. The first financial person has been authorized to reprint the WeChat public number Qin Shuos friends circle. The original title is war in the property market, and it has been abridged. Source: First Financial Editor: Li Zhaoyuan
The value sequence of customers will change: from subway, supporting facilities to green environment and community density; from facade, building materials to house type permeability; from hardware to software property service.
Look at the property in the current community, which plays an important role in this epidemic. Do you strictly isolate the entrance and exit for temperature measurement, disinfect the elevator every day, throw garbage for the owner, clean the central air conditioning, etc. A small step in property services is likely to be a big step in family health!
After the epidemic, the real estate market will continue to differentiate, and the premium of products and services will gradually increase.
The author is the official account of WeChats Qin Shuo circle of friends.
The first financial authority was authorized to be reprinted from the official account of WeChat, Qin Shuos friends circle. The original title was war in the property market.