Zhongtai Securities: even if the total economic volume fell in the first quarter, what?

category:Finance
 Zhongtai Securities: even if the total economic volume fell in the first quarter, what?


Are these changes just caused by the epidemic? Obviously not all, the performance of growth stocks and bonds started in the fourth quarter of last year, and the epidemic only accelerated. If the economy is to stabilize, why will bond yields fall at that time? So the economic downturn, the market shock, and the large-scale shift of research views, in fact, many of these pots should not all be borne by the epidemic. At the current time point, we should be more cautious in economic judgment. Judging from the recent high-frequency indicators, the GDP growth rate in the first quarter will be negative (of course, the final data released by the National Bureau of statistics will prevail). We still need to grasp the structural opportunities for the market, especially the investment opportunities brought by the acceleration of liquidity easing and the acceleration of policies. The current view is exactly the same as the annual report released in the fourth quarter of last year. There is no change. The epidemic just accelerated the pace of our view and did not change the direction. In the same words, this year is not about economic stabilization, but about active policies. Source: responsible editor of Securities Times: Guo Chenqi, nbj9931

At the current time point, we should be more cautious in economic judgment. Judging from the recent high-frequency indicators, the GDP growth rate in the first quarter will be negative (of course, the final data released by the National Bureau of statistics will prevail). We still need to grasp the structural opportunities for the market, especially the investment opportunities brought by the acceleration of liquidity easing and the acceleration of policies. The current view is exactly the same as the annual report released in the fourth quarter of last year. There is no change. The epidemic just accelerated the pace of our view and did not change the direction. In the same words, this year is not about economic stabilization, but about active policies.