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Butterfly Effect caused by the epidemic affects the global automobile industry chain

category:Finance
 Butterfly Effect caused by the epidemic affects the global automobile industry chain


Introduction to parts enterprises

According to incomplete statistics, at present, the proportion of auto parts enterprises in Hubei Province accounts for 13% of the whole country, up to nearly 12000; and the proportion of auto parts enterprises in Hubei Province with registered capital of more than 10 million yuan accounts for about 10% of the whole country, also nearly 2000. Outside Hubei Province, parts and components enterprises across the country are also affected by the epidemic delay to return to work.

On February 4, Xiangyang bearing (000678) announced that the company initially plans to return to work on February 14, 2020. At present, the products required by its main customers after returning to work are all ready in the place where the customers are located before the Spring Festival, and the company also has a certain number of products in stock in its headquarters.

However, Xiangyang bearing also reminded investors in the announcement that there is still uncertainty about whether it can resume work as scheduled on February 14 and whether the logistics is smooth.

However, due to Zhejiang Provinces stipulation that all kinds of enterprises should return to work on February 10, resulting in the companys short-term shutdown, unable to deliver products to overseas customers on time, according to the contract, Huida Huzhou will bear a huge amount of compensation. In a hurry, the company sent out help to the local government to reduce the losses.

Influence spread

Global automobile industry chain

The reporter learned that the supply disruption of spare parts enterprises has not only affected the enterprises themselves, but also gradually affected the national and even global automobile industry chain. Recently, Hyundai has had to shut down several factories in South Korea due to the shortage of some parts. It is reported that the main reason for the shutdown is the shortage of wiring harness of auto parts purchased by Hyundai on a large scale in China.

The impact is not uncontrollable

Although the shutdown caused by the current epidemic has affected the global automobile industry chain to a certain extent, many brokers have analyzed that the impact is short-lived.

CICC believes that in China, it is expected that the shipment volume of parts enterprises in the first quarter will be affected for a short time, especially in Hubei Province. The production of local vehicle factories will also be affected greatly, including Dongfeng Honda, Shenlong, Dongfeng Nissan, SAIC GM, etc. it is expected that the main parts suppliers of relevant vehicle enterprises will be greatly affected. In terms of export, CICC believes that in view of the fact that auto parts enterprises generally have safety stock, the postponement of one week or even half a months resumption of work will not affect the production of the whole vehicle factory, and if the safety stock is in an emergency after resumption of work, it can also shorten the time in transit by air transportation to achieve timely supply. In addition, in recent years, the car market is weak. At present, most of the spare parts enterprises have surplus production capacity. If the subsequent downstream demand is good, the output can be increased by overtime and other ways. Source: responsible editor of Securities Times: Yang qian_nf4425

CICC believes that in China, it is expected that the shipment volume of parts enterprises in the first quarter will be affected for a short time, especially in Hubei Province. The production of local vehicle factories will also be affected greatly, including Dongfeng Honda, Shenlong, Dongfeng Nissan, SAIC GM, etc. it is expected that the main parts suppliers of relevant vehicle enterprises will be greatly affected.

In terms of export, CICC believes that in view of the fact that auto parts enterprises generally have safety stock, the postponement of one week or even half a months resumption of work will not affect the production of the whole vehicle factory, and if the safety stock is in an emergency after resumption of work, it can also shorten the time in transit by air transportation to achieve timely supply. In addition, in recent years, the car market is weak. At present, most of the spare parts enterprises have surplus production capacity. If the subsequent downstream demand is good, the output can be increased by overtime and other ways.