Lu Zhengwei, chief economist of Societe Generale and Huafu securities, told reporters yesterday that from the perspective of consumer goods, under the influence of Spring Festival factors, pork prices have picked up momentum again, and vegetable prices have also risen higher. At the same time, the occurrence of the epidemic may add variables to the price of consumer goods: on the one hand, the data shows that during the SARS period, the CPI of health care rose sharply year on year; on the other hand, the travel of residents may be reduced, making the performance of tourism price and vehicle maintenance price weaker than seasonal. Overall, CPI growth in January may be around 4.9% year-on-year. From the perspective of industrial products, affected by the epidemic, the market risk preference significantly fell, and the price of bulk commodities significantly fell. However, due to the low year-on-year base, PPI in January may rise to about 0% year-on-year.
With regard to the recent trend of monetary policy, Lu said that the monetary policy may maintain sufficient liquidity during the outbreak, and increase support for the affected areas and industries.
Li Chao said that he is still firmly optimistic about the stable and slightly loose monetary policy in the first quarter of this year, taking the expansion of credit as the main way, and may promote the release of credit by reducing the standard or increasing the amount of PSL.