According to the report, affected by the current epidemic situation, the shortage of short-term mask supply is mainly caused by the lack of early reserves, the lack of starting work during the Spring Festival holiday, and the lack of public awareness of the selection of masks in different environments.
Why there is a gap between supply and demand
Ning Yuqiang, team leader of the report and general manager of CCID Consulting medical and health industry research center, said in an interview with first financial reporter on May 5 that according to the latest data released by the government, medical protective masks and medical surgical masks can be fully guaranteed in the future.
Ningyuqiang said that the current contradiction between supply and demand is mainly due to the superimposition of Spring Festival holiday factors. On the one hand, in order to support the rapid start-up of the first-line epidemic situation, most of the employees have to go home for the new year, so they can not start at full load, and it is difficult to recruit temporary workers; on the other hand, although the supply of raw materials is sufficient, cross Provincial scheduling and transportation need to be optimized and guaranteed smooth material transportation.
Huang Libin, spokesman of the Ministry of industry and information technology and director of the operation monitoring Coordination Bureau, said recently that the production capacity of masks in China is about 20 million per day, and the current production capacity recovery rate is about 60%. He said that in recent days, the work of medical material security has made some progress, but due to multiple factors such as the Spring Festival employees holiday, there is a large gap between domestic production capacity and the actual demand under the outbreak.
In addition, the state has taken urgent measures to increase imports. According to the data of the General Administration of customs, more than 56 million masks were imported in 7 days from January 24 to 30, of which more than 20 million were imported on January 30, which played a certain role in alleviating the contradiction between supply and demand.
On February 5, Hao Fuqing, deputy director of the social development department of the national development and Reform Commission, revealed that the national development and Reform Commission is actively coordinating to solve the problem of mask shortage in accordance with the requirements of the joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council. According to statistics, as of February 3, the output of masks in 22 key provinces has reached 14.8 million, an increase of 3.1% month on month. Among them, the number of N95 masks has reached 116000, an increase of 48% month on month, 9.98 million of other medical masks, an increase of 36% month on month, and 4.71 million of ordinary masks.
In recent days, many mask manufacturers have resumed production. For example, the Shanghai Municipal Economic and Information Technology Commission announced on February 5 that there are 17 manufacturers of masks and accessories in the city, and all of them have returned to work. On February 4, the daily output has exceeded 2.6 million. In addition to giving priority to the needs of medical and epidemic prevention staff, there are now 1.8 million to 2 million retail markets per day.
Shandong Province, which has a production capacity of one tenth of the countrys masks, has also accelerated the supply of masks. Previously, Shandong Provincial Department of industry and information technology has sent supervision groups to 18 enterprises to establish a unified provincial dispatching mechanism in a special period. From the morning of January 28 to the evening of January 29, 43 cross provincial and cross city emergency materials transportation vehicles have been issued passes, and more than 230 tons of raw materials such as non-woven fabrics and APIs have been transported.
According to the report, in order to solve the contradiction between supply and demand of short-term masks, from the supply side, we should focus on the coordination of industrial supply, expand the scope of supply enterprises, allocate resources according to the product level, and take various measures to ensure the effective supply of all levels of demand in the short term.
For example, in the short term, the limited resources will fully support the start-up of key enterprises in severe epidemic areas. The production conditions shall be appropriately relaxed, and the marginal enterprises with production capacity shall be included in the procurement catalogue. In addition, we will increase the application of the recovery and purification technology of masks and the investment in alternative products, and open a green channel for imports.
From the demand side, according to the needs of medical workers, it is suggested to make a scientific and reasonable material allocation plan. In view of the needs of the people, it is suggested to spread science and avoid excessive panic.
Upstream and downstream of mask
From the perspective of Chinas mask industry chain, it includes three links: upstream raw materials and production equipment, midstream mask manufacturing, and downstream sales and circulation.
According to the report, from 2015 to 2019, the mask industry developed at a high speed, and the output value growth rate remained above 10%.
In 2019, the output value of masks will exceed 5 billion, reaching 10.235 billion yuan. Among them, 54% of medical masks can be used for virus protection. In 2020, affected by the new coronavirus epidemic, the growth rate of output value of medical masks is expected to reach 38%, which will drive the growth of output value of the whole mask industry, and the annual output value of masks will exceed 13 billion yuan.
Ning Yuqiang analyzed the number of enterprises. According to their statistics, there are more than 1500 enterprises in the whole medical mask industry. In the upstream of the industrial chain, enterprises in Jiangsu and Shandong are most concentrated; in the middle of the industrial chain, enterprises in Jiangsu and Henan are most concentrated; in the downstream, enterprises in Beijing and Shanghai are most concentrated, most of which are circulation and retail enterprises.
The Yangtze River Delta region is the region with the most centralized distribution of upstream enterprises in the industrial chain of medical masks, accounting for 43.8% of the total, for example, there are 13 enterprises in Jiangsu Province.
Ningyuqiang believes that affected by the epidemic in 2020, the mask industry will usher in an increase in output value. It is estimated that the output value of medical masks (including general medical masks, medical surgical masks and medical protective masks) will increase by 38% year on year in 2020, which will drive the output value of the whole mask industry to increase, and the annual output value of masks will exceed 13 billion yuan.
For enterprises, this wave of epidemic will also test the ability of fast production line switching. The industry classification of many enterprises is the category of medical protection. The product system includes protective glasses, medical masks, experimental clothes, gloves, etc.
In addition, excluding the factors of Spring Festival holiday, whether enterprises can meet the sudden increase of market demand according to the change of epidemic situation will be a big test for production capacity.
If the level of enterprise automation is high and the human factors are small, the response speed will be faster. Therefore, enterprises with strength after the epidemic may consider more investment in the automation transformation and informatization promotion of their production lines. Ning Yuqiang said.