Analysis of new crown epidemic by medical experts: spread of SARS or four reasons

 Analysis of new crown epidemic by medical experts: spread of SARS or four reasons

Lin Bingliang, secretary-general of the infectious disease prevention and control branch of the Chinese Preventive Medicine Association and deputy director of the infection department of the Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat sen University, replied to the media via the Internet Saturday that the development speed and transmission capacity of the epidemic were significantly higher than that of SARS. The analysis of the causes may include the following four aspects:

First, when the new crown epidemic is in its early stage, people are not aware of the new disease, ignoring the way that people can transmit people, leading to the spread of the epidemic; second, there are patients with latent infection (with transmission ability) and asymptomatic infection (with no or only mild symptoms) in the new crown pneumonia, which is easy to miss diagnosis. How to find out the source of such infection is the biggest challenge of epidemic prevention and control; third In terms of transmission routes, it used to only focus on droplet transmission and contact transmission, but from the current situation, I think there is digestive tract transmission, and the possibility of air (aerosol) transmission is also very large; fourthly, as a new disease, people generally have no immunity to it, leading to the invincibility of the virus.

Lin Bingliang pointed out that although the number of patients with the new crown epidemic is large and the number of deaths exceeds that of SARS, through detailed analysis of the data, the epidemic situation is not so terrible. Up to now, the case fatality rate of confirmed cases in China is about 2.1%, and the deaths are mainly concentrated in Hubei Province, the source of the epidemic. In that year, the case fatality rate of SARS was close to 10%, and that of mers (Middle East respiratory syndrome) was 30%. It shows that the mortality of this disease is not very high, and the public does not need to panic. Even we have more reason to believe that with the detection of asymptomatic infection, the mortality of infection may be lower.

He believes that with the deepening of the understanding of the epidemic situation of new crown pneumonia, targeted work should also be carried out to promote the prevention and control of the epidemic situation: first, nucleic acid screening should be carried out for patients with a history of epidemiology to find the source of infection as much as possible, and isolation treatment should be given; second, antiviral drugs should be found as soon as possible to reduce the amount of virus in patients and control the spread ability of the epidemic situation; third, according to the spread At present, the most simple and effective way to intervene and protect is to wear masks and wash hands frequently. The living environment should be ventilated. Public facilities and sites should be disinfected. Based on the possible spread of digestive tract, fecal treatment and sewer management are also very important. It is necessary to avoid the mass infection of Taoda garden in Hong Kong during SARS. Fourthly, it is necessary to protect vulnerable people and accelerate the progress of vaccine research and development , do a good job in personal protection and enhance the autoimmune function to resist diseases.

As for the claim that the new coronavirus causing the epidemic is more cunning than SARS, Lin Bingliang said, it is mainly because people dont know enough about it. For example, patients in the incubation period are infectious, asymptomatic patients are infectious, and some patients, especially severe patients, have a long time of continuous detoxification, which are cunning and weird. He hopes to strengthen the clinical treatment and scientific research, deepen the understanding of the new crown epidemic situation and virus, and gradually uncover its weird veil.

Latest: the death toll of pneumonia infected by new coronavirus exceeds that of SARS

As of 24:00 on February 2, the national health and Health Commission has received 361 cases of death reported by 31 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities directly under the central government) and Xinjiang production and Construction Corps, which has exceeded 349 cases of SARS reported in mainland China from the end of 2002 to 10:00 on August 16, 2003.