At the moment of the epidemic, house has become a necessity for life. Mobile phones are constantly picked up, put down, picked up and put down Hundreds of millions of people live in the anxiety of information swiping.
We collected 3475 case information through the official public information. In the case of being swiped by the epidemic information, we use the data to analyze, find the hidden information behind the case, and let the rationality drive away the anxiety.
There is no gender advantage of being free from infection in women
Of the 3475 messages with gender, 82 were missing, and the number of men infected was higher than that of women. Among them, 1843 were male and 1550 were female. Although in earlier case studies, men had far more patients than women. But so far, we have seen more and more women infected, which seems to break the previous researchers conclusion that men or women are more susceptible to the new type of coronavirus.
From January 11 to January 15, the number of new coronavirus pneumonia in Wuhan has remained at 41. Huang Chaolin and others from Jinyintan hospital in Wuhan studied the clinical characteristics of 41 cases. Among them, 30 cases were male, accounting for 73%.
Professor Zhang Li of Wuhan Jinyintan hospital and Professor Zhang Xinxin of Shanghai Ruijin Hospital studied 99 patients with new coronavirus infection in Wuhan Jinyintan hospital from January 1 to 20. It is suggested that the low susceptibility of female to virus may be due to the protection of X chromosome and gonadal hormone, which play an important role in innate and adaptive immunity. This conclusion was published in the international medical journal Lancet on January 29th.
35-39 year olds have the highest risk factors
Among the 3475 cases collected, 75% of them were 25-59 years old, but there were cases in different age groups of 0-94 years old. This shows that although each person has different exposure opportunities and morbidity due to age, the new coronavirus is susceptible to all age groups.
However, the proportion of children under 15 years old and over 75 years old is relatively low. In order to eliminate the influence of the age structure of the population, we weighted the age structure of the population. The weighted probability = the number of cases in this age group / the percentage points of the age group in the total population. The weighted probability still supports this conclusion.
The infection time is U-shaped, which is related to the Spring Festival holiday
Through the calculation and analysis of the possible infection time of 3475 cases from January 18 to February 3 (this paper adopts the calculation method of infection time = diagnosis time-min (onset time, medical treatment time) to reflect the most important infection time of a case, including the diagnosis time of timely medical treatment or examination of patients). It is found that the infection time is bounded by January 26, showing the trend of first decreasing and then increasing Potential.
This U-shaped trend chart may be related to the sharp increase in the number of cases caused by the large-scale flow of people around the Spring Festival.
From January 23 to January 26, the infection time was kept at the minimum of about 4 days. This period is from the 29th of the twelfth lunar month to the second day of the first lunar month. The whole nation is basically celebrating the new year in their own homes, without a large-scale flow and gathering of people.
The more cases, the longer the infection time
Based on the statistical analysis of 3475 cases by provinces, 12 provinces with more than 60 cases were sorted out. It is found that the time of infection varies greatly among different provinces, the fastest in Shandong and Sichuan is close to 3 days, while the slower in Guangdong and Shaanxi is more than 6 days.
Further study found that there was a high correlation between the infection time of patients and the total number of cases in their provinces, that is, the more infected people in the province, the longer the infection time.
After removing Shaanxi Province and Guangdong Province which deviated from Wuhan Province, the correlation coefficient reached 0.78. That is to say, the more cases, the longer the infection time caused by the patients. This means that the diagnosis of suspected patients is delayed due to the increase of cases or the limited ability of detection and diagnosis and treatment in the hospital.
At the same time, it means that the provinces with more infected people have a higher risk of infection for others.
Because Guangdong Province is a developed area, its medical resources are relatively good. Although there are many cases, it has achieved timely detection and treatment, and the case transmission time is relatively short.
Most of the confirmed cases in typical provinces have short-term experience in Wuhan, and Yunnans passive screening method has obvious effect
According to the number of cases and the degree of information integrity, we selected four typical provinces of Zhejiang, Anhui, Yunnan and Jiangsu to observe the contact mode and discovery mode of patients in the four provinces.
Among them, Zhejiang Province, as a province with relatively serious epidemic situation, the cases caused by Yintai department store and tr188 flight are worthy of attention, which belong to short-term contact. Among them, 24 were isolated passively, 11 were screened passively, and the proportion of passive inspection was still low.
In the public information of Anhui Province, the people returning from Wuhan have a wide range of occupations, many of them are service employees in snack bars, clothing stores, etc. there are more people in daily contact with them, and both the risk of infection and the risk of transmission are higher than that of ordinary people.
In Yunnan Province, the proportion of patients found through passive screening is more prominent, and patients have been screened in hospitals, scenic spots and even toll stations. The province has a high level of investigation. Compared with other provinces, the proportion of investigation is small, and more investigation is needed.
Statistically, there are many cases of short-term experience in Wuhan among the four provinces. Most of them go to Wuhan for business or travel for a short time; some of them just want to transfer planes or buses in Wuhan, or to pick up people at the railway station, the shortest of which is only a few hours.
More than 30% of the cases were caused by contact with the confirmed patients. In the confirmed contact, the most cases were caused by family gathering / close contact, followed by dinner party. The number of cases caused by the dinner party in Anhui reached 19, which was in line with the characteristics of the spread of new crown pneumonia in the early stage.
In addition, there is a risk of riding with or potentially infected people. Therefore, it is suggested that when you take public transport, you should try to cross the peak as much as possible. When you take a train, plane or subway, if you have the conditions, you should try to sit in separate places or in separate places as much as possible.
At present, there is no effective treatment and vaccine for the new coronavirus. Personal protection is the most feasible method.
From this information collection, although all provinces and cities are able to disclose information about new crown pneumonia, the integrity of information collected and disclosed in different places is often very different.
Therefore, it is suggested that the relevant departments should standardize the relevant data and its format. The local disease control departments should use a unified national reporting system, and the data will be automatically disclosed to the whole society once it is reported. In the early stage of disease outbreak, the integrity and comprehensiveness of data collection are very important for early judgment of the nature of key epidemiological parameters of infectious diseases.
Wu ye, Li Minghui, fan Jia (School of Journalism and communication, Beijing Normal University)
1. Is the susceptibility to new coronavirus related to age and gender? u300bhttpsuff1a//new.qq.com/rain/a/20200201A0737E00
2. Detailed explanation of the first 41 cases of Wuhan pneumonia in the lancet http://china.caixin.com/2020-01-26/101508499.html
3. Progress and risk assessment of new coronavirus 2019 http://www.chinacdc.cn/yyrdgz/202001/p02020012852335491922.pdf
On the websites and microblogs of the health and health committees, I would like to thank Liu Yuxi, fan Jia, Li Xiaojun, Wu Zhen, Wang Qi, Deng Yilin, Wang Mengyuan, Xiao Xueyi, Zhang chenjin and Liu Jiayue, students of the research center of computational communication of Beijing Normal University, for their data collection.
Experts: at least 1 month and 90 years old, people are generally susceptible to new pneumonia
Now from the case data obtained, for this disease, the population is generally susceptible. Now we see that the minimum reported age is one months newborn, and the maximum age is more than 90 years old. Therefore, the population is generally susceptible.