Car becomes bitcoin? Short pursuit Tesla

category:Finance
 Car becomes bitcoin? Short pursuit Tesla


Soaring share prices

Teslas share price seems to have rocketed. On February 4, local time, Teslas shares rose 13.73% again to close at $887.06, with a market value of nearly $160 billion, almost twice the market value of Ford and general motors combined. On the previous trading day, Teslas share price just jumped nearly 20%, which means that since the beginning of this year, Teslas share price has risen by more than 112%.

In recent times, Tesla has been extremely successful. First, Teslas Shanghai plant began to deliver, and soon after that, it released a more than expected financial report for the fourth quarter of 2019, completing the sixth quarterly profit since Teslas listing, and the second consecutive quarter profit. In addition, Teslas annual delivery also exceeded expectations, with a total of 367500 vehicles delivered, up 50% year on year.

Next, Panasonic reported quarterly profits for the first time in its US battery business with Tesla after years of production problems and delays. On the same day, Ningde times, the China smart manufacturing company, announced that it planned to sign an agreement with Tesla to supply the latter with power battery products. Previously, arkinvestment, which focuses on investing in disruptive innovation companies, even predicted that Teslas share price would soar to $7000 by 2024, provided that Teslas annual sales reached 7.1 million at that time, and that self driving taxis would generate much higher profits than online car Hailing platforms such as Uber.

For Tesla, its too sudden. In the first half of last year, Tesla was still struggling, and the stock price was as low as $190. Before that, the marijuana incident and privatization storm made mask a representative of pattern killing, which also led to masks stress choking in the face of reporters cameras. But there was a fundamental reversal last October. At that time, Tesla released the third quarter report, compared with the net loss of the previous two quarters, the news of the third quarter profit directly pushed Teslas share price up 20% on the same day.

30 years of Hedong, 30 years of Hexi. But it took Tesla only a few years to make a beautiful turnaround. One of the background that needs to be added is that currently, musk does not receive any salary. Three years ago, the special shareholders meeting of Tesla approved masks salary plan for the next ten years. According to the plan, if mask can maintain the average market value of Tesla above $100 billion in the next six months and the market value of Tesla over $100 billion in 30 business days, he has the right to subscribe for 1.69 million shares at $350.02 per share. If all these shares are sold, the value is $370 million Yuan or so. At the time, Teslas market value was $54.6 billion, and the plan was to push Teslas market value to $650 billion within a decade.

Short catch

There seems to be no perfect thing in the world. When Tesla has unlimited scenery, it is also the most active time for short sellers. On Tuesday local time, citron research, a famous short seller, said on twitter that they believed that if musk was a fund manager, he would also choose to short the stock, this is no longer a technical issue, it has become a new wall street casino..

Now it seems that the description of casino is a little subtle - even though short selling causes huge losses, there are still lots of short positions. Investors have lost more than $8 billion since the start of the year, according to s3partners, a financial technology company, including nearly $2.5 billion in losses from short sellers on Monday alone. According to S3 partners, Tesla has more short sellers than any other US stock, with a net short ratio of more than 18%.

There is a reason to be short. Billionaire, Galaxy investment CEO Michael Novoglatz has said that the recent rise in Tesla stock price is comparable to the 2017 bitcoin bubble, short Tesla let him fall black and blue. According to novo Graz, even though he himself has two Tesla, it does not mean that Tesla is worth so much money. Teslas stock price will not go up forever. Now it is the bubble effect. JPMorgan Chase thinks that Teslas current share price is highly overvalued for a car manufacturer. In their opinion, Tesla is an automobile company, while investors value it as a technology company.

The Wall Street Journal also commented that the growth is not consistent with Teslas fundamentals, and that Tesla still has an annual loss. The Wall Street Journal also made a dangerous metaphor for Tesla - Qualcomms stock, other technology stocks in the Internet era, oil in 2008 and bitcoin in 2017. He Xiaopeng, CEO of Xiaopeng automobile, also said on Weibo that he didnt see the logic of Teslas current high valuation unless he was a real long-term holder.

The car company, which wears technology companys clothing, is still losing money throughout the year. Its valuation is higher than that of the bubble. But it is obvious that the outside world did not expect the success of Teslas China plant. The plant was completed in 10 months. Teslas goal in 2020 has also targeted 500000 deliveries. According to the current trend, the competition between Tesla and short sellers may continue.

Short logic

Tesla never lacks supporters, just as Tesla never lacks bears. Oddly enough, Teslas share price soared all the way, but the short sellers chased it all the way. Even though they suffered a blood loss, the short sellers still faced the difficulties. It is understood that David Einhorn of greenlight capital, Jim Chanos, co-founder of Kynikos associates, the worlds largest short hedge fund, mark Spiegel, managing partner of Stanfield capital, mark Yusko, founder of Morgan Kerry capital management, etc. are all regular customers on Teslas short list.

In this context, rather than discussing whether Tesla is the next bitcoin, it is better to explore the real logic between short selling and Teslas stock price. One problem that needs to be pointed out is that the straight-line rise of Teslas stock price may also have the power of bears. Jia Xinguang, an auto industry analyst, said that both short and long are means of capital operation. Now short and long Tesla are big capital. The short side has made a big capital, forcing Tesla to resist desperately, so the stock price is entrusted.

Li Daxiao, director of the Research Institute of Yingda securities, also told the Beijing Business Daily that before the blowout of Teslas stock price, the dispute was almost the biggest, because Tesla had little performance, but the prospect was very good, especially after Tesla opened a factory in Shanghai, more and more people were optimistic about Tesla, but also because Tesla did not have performance like apple, Google and other enterprises, As a result, there are many people who are short, causing serious differences between the long and the short. The short position is serious. As soon as Teslas share price soars, it will involve the problem of forced closing position, and then push up the share price, because the short position can only be closed by buying back the shares. You need to know that the risk of shorting is always much greater than doing.

It is understood that shorting is the expectation that there will be a downward trend in the stock futures market. The operator will sell the chips in his hands according to the market price, and then buy after the stock futures fall to earn the middle price difference. Li Daxiao said that the existence of short position is not to let the long position push the stock price to the wrong direction. There are many successful cases of short position such as muddy water. Only when there are short positions can the long position not exaggerate the stock too much, which is the advantage of mature market.

As for the future, Tesla may also face some small problems of its own. Jia Xinguang said that those who attacked Tesla mainly doubted the instability of its profits, and at the same time, they were not optimistic about the development prospect of electric vehicles, but musk only focused on the issue of market value, which is the value of capital. Tesla does have some real things, such as several major initiatives, namely, building factories in Shanghai, expanding factories in the United States, and building factories in Germany in the future. Today, Teslas China plant has been completed and put into production, but the German plant has encountered some problems, as well as the resistance of the European automobile group. After the United States, China and Europe have established their positions, Tesla will challenge Toyota and Volkswagen to reduce the vehicle price to about 100000 yuan.

Jia Xinguang further said that in the next step, around Teslas market value of $1 trillion, there will be an unprecedented long space war, the outside world may as well wait and see.

According to data from financial technology analysis company s3partner, from 2020 to now, Teslas short position has lost 12 billion US dollars. However, there are still short sellers who choose to continue to snipe Tesla. Andrew leford, founder of citron, a well-known shorting agency, said on February 5 that citron was shorting Tesla and believed that if mask was a fund manager, he would also choose to short Tesla at this time.

Tesla, whose share price has doubled in the past month, has once again become a hot star stock. Wall Street has even set off an upsurge of whether to revalue its value.

After two days of soaring on February 3 and 4, Teslas stock market value has reached US $159.8 billion. In this way, Tesla is the worlds second largest automaker with the highest market value after Toyota.