The Spring Festival archives and Valentines Day archives are gone. This years box office may be less than 10 billion yuan

category:Internet
 The Spring Festival archives and Valentines Day archives are gone. This years box office may be less than 10 billion yuan


By the end of February 4, the Shanghai index was up 1.34%, the Shenzhen composite index was up 3.17%, and the gem index was up 4.84%. Specifically in the film and television sector, compared with the situation that the majority of film and television stocks fell by about 10% on February 3, the situation has improved significantly, including the stock prices of Huace film and television, Ciwen media, light media, great wall film and television, etc.

After 2019s strongest national day record and Spring Festival record warm-up, if there is no impact of the epidemic, 2019 may be the turning point year of film and television stocks. At the end of December 2019, when the film and television stocks rose collectively, a number of insiders have said that the film and television stocks in 2019 should be the lowest point in the whole, and the film and television stocks are expected to bottom out and recover in 2020.

But now, affected by the epidemic environment, the Spring Festival films and lovers films are withdrawn collectively, the box office data is suspended from updating, and the film and television drama troupes are suspended. From cinemas, concerts to shooting bases, all the offline film and television industries are suspended. For the film and television industry as a whole, the impact is inevitable, especially the cinema stocks. Even if they recover, it will take time. In the first quarter of 2020, they will bear great pressure.

Box office or loss of nearly 10 billion yuan in 2020

On the first trading day of the year of the rat, the market was down, not unique to the film and television sector. Shen Meng, executive director of Xiangsong capital, said.

In 2020, it experienced an unprecedented bleak Spring Festival, as the largest ticket warehouse of the year, because the epidemic films chose to withdraw. According to the professional edition of Lighthouse, the box office of Spring Festival in 2019 was 5.905 billion yuan, while that of 2018 was 5.771 billion yuan. Before that, many insiders had estimated that the box office of Spring Festival in 2020 is expected to exceed 7 billion yuan.

Image and text are irrelevant. Image source: Photography Network

If it involves offline consumption, it will be damaged before the epidemic situation is clearly improved, leading to systemic risks in the market. Basically, except for some specially benefited sectors or companies such as medicine and games, they are all falling. Pacific Securities analyst Ni Shuang told reporters.

In addition to films, all kinds of dramas are stagnant. For example, on January 27, Zhao Liying and Wang Yibo starred in you Fei announced the suspension of shooting, and the midday sun produced big river 2 also announced the suspension of shooting on the same day.

Notice on stopping shooting of big river 2 (picture source: the film crew)

On February 1, the television production committee and the actors Committee of the China Federation of radio and television social organizations issued the notice on stopping the shooting of film and television plays during the new crown epidemic, which requires all film and television production companies, film and television troupes and actors to suspend the shooting of film and television plays during the new pneumonia epidemic.

It is estimated that there will be retaliatory viewing and consumption from the end of April to May 1, said Ni Shuang. With the return of the viewing boom, the film and television industry may recover.

However, when talking about the overall performance and trend of film and television stocks in the future in 2020, Shen Meng believes that, the performance of film and television sector this year may not be as good as that in 2019. On the one hand, the impact of the epidemic on the revenue of the cinema line is a continuous impact; on the other hand, the industry may continue the trend in 2019 due to the impact of policies.

In the first quarter of 2020, the company will bear great pressure

Affected by the epidemic, the Spring Festival films were withdrawn collectively, and some of the films sought to be broadcast online on video websites. The cinemas that had planned to rely on the Spring Festival Film fight were the first to be directly affected.

The reporter of the daily economic news (wechat: nbdnews) noted that after the closing on February 3, Hengdian film and television, Jinyi film and television, happy blue ocean, Wanda film, China film, Shanghai film and other top cinema companies had stopped. By contrast, as of February 4, Hengdian film and television closed down 4.45%, Wanda film closed down 4.88%, Shanghai Film closed down 5.57%, Chinese film closed down 5.23%, and happy blue ocean closed down 7.2%. Most of the decline of the above-mentioned cinema companies was significantly narrowed.

According to the previous box office estimates of 5-6 billion yuan for the Spring Festival archives, this years Spring Festival archives alone lost 10% of the box office revenue of the whole year. In the future, at least one month, the film and television industry will still be affected by the epidemic environment. For the cinema with rigid cost expenditure, even recovery needs a gradual process, and there is no big schedule before the May 1st schedule.

According to the analysis of relevant research reports, the collective withdrawal of Spring Festival films has a great impact on the first quarter profits of the cinema companies in 2020, and it is expected that the profits of the cinema companies in the first quarter of 2020 will decline. In the long run, the cinema industry is still in the decline channel of single screen output, but in the past four years, the decline of single screen output has been continuously narrowed, waiting for the turning point of single screen output to appear, while the cinema industry is a highly leveraged business model, and the profit elasticity is large when the box office recovers.

In the first quarter of this year, the impact of film and television stocks is still relatively large, especially for the cinema companies, Ni Shuang said in an interview On the other hand, the controversy between the cinema and the video website caused by lost Mom has also moved the cake of the cinema to a certain extent, making the cinema fall into a relatively passive situation. However, at present, from the perspective of industry attitude, the impact from this aspect is relatively small for film and television stocks, especially for cinema stocks. This kind of emergency measures is only a short-term choice. If the epidemic continues to develop, it may have a greater impact on the film and television stocks, especially the theater and line stocks. But at present, the epidemic is beginning to improve. Although the absence of the Spring Festival archives will have a greater impact on the performance of the whole year, but when the panic eased, the film and television stocks still need to see the overall performance. Shen Meng told reporters of the daily economic news. Source: editor in charge of daily economic news: Wang Fengzhi, nt2541

In the first quarter of this year, the impact of film and television stocks is still relatively large, especially for the cinema companies, Ni Shuang said in an interview

On the other hand, the controversy between the cinema and the video website caused by lost Mom has also moved the cake of the cinema to a certain extent, making the cinema fall into a relatively passive situation. However, at present, from the perspective of industry attitude, the impact from this aspect is relatively small for film and television stocks, especially for cinema stocks.