Its January 21. What she doesnt know is that in 15 days, Huanggang will have a total of 1645 cases of new crown pneumonia, ranking second in the country.
There are similar situations in Xiaogan, Jingmen, Xiangyang and other prefecture level cities in Hubei. Even cities such as Wenzhou, Guangdong, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, 1000 kilometers away, due to their close contacts with Wuhan, have gradually become key epidemic areas with the start of the Spring Festival return.
And how did it all start? The surging news collected and analyzed the details of 763 confirmed patients from the confirmed cases announced by the health and health committees of all regions as of January 27, trying to reduce the path of virus spread. It is worth noting that the difference in the number of cases between regions is mainly due to the different degree of information disclosure of the government, so the number between regions is not comparable.
368 patients with late diagnosis left the Han Dynasty one week before the closure of Wuhan
At 10 a.m. on January 23, Wuhan closed the airport and railway station from the Han channel, 13 days after the official start of this Spring Festival.
The past 13 days are exactly the day when people return home every year. Not many people have been warned that, as in previous years, they still pick up their luggage, visit their families, travel and go home for dinner.
As shown in the figure above, 368 of 506 cases with clear itinerary information disclosure left the Han Dynasty one week before the closure of Wuhan. The peak number of late confirmed patients in and out of Wuhan was on January 19 and 20. In these two days, a total of 130 later confirmed patients left the city, accounting for 27% of the total.
On the evening of January 20, Zhong Nanshan confirmed that the virus has the characteristics of human to human transmission in the CCTV news 1 + 1 column. From that night to Fengcheng, No. 23, Wuhan, three days later. On the 21st, 56 patients were confirmed to leave the city; on the 22nd, 62; on the 23rd, 36.
A patient from Handan, Hebei Province, visited Wuhan with his parents on January 15, moved to Xiamen on January 18, fell ill on January 19, and was hospitalized in Shenzhen on January 22.
Like him, leaving Wuhan may just be the first step for many people to travel during the Spring Festival. In the open 506 confirmed patients itinerary, 47 patients left Wuhan and passed through multiple destinations, accounting for 9% of the total.
In addition, 28 confirmed cases show that they have no direct communication with Wuhan, only the tourism history of other provinces in Hubei. Whats more, they only got sick in the middle of their journey through Wuhan.
Ye Mou, from Hefei, Anhui Province, went to Chenzhou, Hunan Province on a business trip on January 9. He changed in Wuhan and returned to Hefei on January 10. It was diagnosed on January 10 and January 23.
Another patient who lived in Shenzhen for a long time left Shenzhen for Tianjin on January 19. The high-speed railway stayed in Wuhan for several minutes, arrived in Jilin on January 22, and was diagnosed locally on January 27.
However, the length of stay does not have a direct relationship with the later stage of illness. As shown in the figure below, of the 67 patients who have stayed in Wuhan for a short time, 17 stayed for only one day, and 4 stayed for less than one day.
It is worth noting that the above data only reflect a part of patients itinerary, and only a few patients urban internal mobile tracks can be publicized.
The longest interval between symptoms and admission is nearly one month
Prevention and control lies in warning. In fact, all aspects of the epidemic are not satisfied with the disclosure of our information, Zhou Xianwang, mayor of Wuhan, said in an interview with CCTV on 27.
The time interval between symptoms and admission to hospital of the patients confirmed this phenomenon. Because the symptoms of the new crown pneumonia are similar to those of the common cold, most patients and even doctors can not detect the severity of the disease at first.
A patient in Ankang, Shaanxi Province, who lived in Shiyan, Hubei Province for a long time, developed symptoms as early as the end of December, but did not visit Baihe County until January 21.
Tian Mou, a patient in Chengwu County, Shandong Province, has been working in Jingzhou, Hubei Province for a long time. On January 9, he returned to his hometown. On January 20, he had symptoms. On that day, he received infusion treatment in the village health room, but there was no improvement. On January 22, he went to Tianji town hospital of Chengwu County for treatment, but still no improvement. On January 23, he went to Chengwu County Hospital for treatment, and was isolated for treatment. The diagnosis was made on January 26.
As shown in the figure above, with January 18 as the dividing point, the time interval between before and after is quite different. Especially from January 22, the number of patients who had symptoms on that day increased dramatically. On this day, Hubei Province launched a secondary emergency response to public health emergencies. The next day, Zhejiang, Hunan and Guangdong successively launched the first-class response.
Family members and colleagues are the main victims of human to human characteristics
The above-mentioned spatiotemporal characteristics, coupled with the characteristics of human to human transmission, have brought about the consequence that a large number of patients with late diagnosis have already arrived all over the country, bringing the virus to close contacts, and even causing cluster infection. As of the noon of February 4, 60 outbreaks were found in Shandong Province, of which 49 were family outbreaks, Xinhua reported.
In general, family members and colleagues are the main victims, because they belong to people who can meet in the acquaintance space every day. Of 151 confirmed human to human cases, 64 were in this situation. In the figure below, two groups of transmission in Shandong and Tianjin are taken as examples.
Public space is also an important way for virus transmission. Of the 151 confirmed human to human cases, 20 were in this situation. Some of them participated in the Yunnan tour group with Wuhan patients, some had dinner with colleagues of Wuhan patients, and others met Wuhan passengers on public transport.
The last common human to human scene is in the hospital. As of January 27, only the following five cases were from Xinyu City, Jiangxi Province. Five hospital workers were infected, and two of them transmitted the virus to their mothers and wives.