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Less affected by the epidemic in beer off-season than liquor growth this year, its up to days to eat

category:Finance
 Less affected by the epidemic in beer off-season than liquor growth this year, its up to days to eat


In the short term, affected by the epidemic, the suspension of catering and nightclub businesses indirectly affected beer consumption, but analysts believe that the first quarter is the off-season of the beer industry, so the impact of the epidemic on the beer industry throughout the year is limited. On February 4, the trend of beer stocks was also better than that of liquor and wine.

In an interview with the media, Carlsberg CEO Hao Hansi said that the companys business in China had a negative impact due to the closure of its nightspots and nearly half of its catering businesses.

Business is definitely not going to be very good in the first quarter of this year. Zhou Qiang, general manager of Ganzhou Baihui beer, told the first financial reporter that the business before the Spring Festival in January this year was OK. Affected by the epidemic, his brewery has not started yet, so the impact on the business can not be estimated. Beer consumption is closer to ready to drink, but this year, affected by the epidemic, the business of restaurants and nightclubs around the country almost stagnated, and the overall degree of business impact depends on the continued situation of the epidemic.

As for the impact of the epidemic on business, Qingdao beer (600600. SH), one of the two largest beer giants in China, replied that first finance and Economics said it could not predict for the time being, while another giant China Resources beer (00291. HK) did not respond on the same day.

In fact, thanks to the price increase and quality upgrading, domestic beer enterprises have just reaped a harvest year in 2019.

In the first three quarters of 2019, the overall performance of beer stocks is good. On January 20, Cr beer released the performance forecast, and it is expected that the companys shareholders should account for at least 30% of the companys profit margin compared with the year ended December 31, 2018. Chongqing Beers announcement on the increase of performance in 2019 shows that it is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to the parent of RMB 606 million to RMB 687 million in the whole year, an increase of RMB 202 million to RMB 283 million compared with the same period of last year, a year-on-year increase of 50% to 70%, and an increase of 11% to 34% after deducting non profits.

With the development of the epidemic, the share price of beer stocks has also been affected. In the case of Cr beer, its share price fell from 43.25 Hong Kong dollars on January 10 to 36.25 Hong Kong dollars on January 31. On the first trading day after the Spring Festival, beer stocks also fell.

However, in the industry, the impact of the epidemic on beer is relatively limited.

According to the Research Report of CICC, although beer has a high correlation with catering, the first quarter is the off-season of consumption, and Hubei is not a major sales area (the sales volume accounts for less than 4% of the industry). Therefore, it is expected that with the warmer weather, the epidemic will have little impact on the sales performance of the traditional peak season from May to September, and it will not exclude the possibility of anti elastic social networking to increase sales. In addition, enterprises may also take measures, such as regional price increases to compensate for lost revenue or performance.

Referring to the period of SARS, 2003 is the period of capacity expansion of the beer industry. Although SARS made the capacity of the beer industry rapidly drop to 0.5% in the second quarter of 2003, and the growth rate of enterprise income also fell from more than 30% to 10% to 20%. However, after the end of SARS, the domestic beer capacity rebounded rapidly, and the enterprise income also returned to growth.

Fang Gang, a beer expert, told the first financial reporter that at present, the epidemic has caused rigid losses to the consumption field, and beer enterprises are also doomed. However, by contrast, the impact of the beer industry in the off-season will be lower than that of liquor and other alcoholic drinks. This summer, there are also sports events such as the European Cup, which will stimulate beer consumption and neutralize some losses. On February 4, except for some stocks, the prices of major beer stocks are rising in varying degrees. Tsingtao beer is up 3.56%, Chongqing beer is up 4.98%, China Resources beer is up 5.68% and Yanjing beer is up 1.94%. However, in Fang Gangs view, whether the beer industry can grow this year still depends on the weather and temperature, which has a more direct impact on beer sales. Source: First Financial Editor: Guo Chenqi, nbj9931

Fang Gang, a beer expert, told the first financial reporter that at present, the epidemic has caused rigid losses to the consumption field, and beer enterprises are also doomed. However, by contrast, the impact of the beer industry in the off-season will be lower than that of liquor and other alcoholic drinks. This summer, there are also sports events such as the European Cup, which will stimulate beer consumption and neutralize some losses.

On February 4, except for some stocks, the prices of major beer stocks are rising in varying degrees. Tsingtao beer is up 3.56%, Chongqing beer is up 4.98%, China Resources beer is up 5.68% and Yanjing beer is up 1.94%.

However, in Fang Gangs view, whether the beer industry can grow this year still depends on the weather and temperature, which has a more direct impact on beer sales.