Yale University public health expert: turning point of epidemic peak or on February 21

category:Global
 Yale University public health expert: turning point of epidemic peak or on February 21


Chen Xi, a participant in the seminar, an assistant professor of global health policy and economics at Yale University and President of the American Society for health policy and management, recently gave an exclusive interview to the global times, introducing his analysis and suggestions on Chinas epidemic prevention and control work from the public health field.

Unpublished papers show that after the closure of Wuhan, the heritability decreased by 30%

According to the latest data released by Chinas National Health Commission, as of 24:00 on the 3rd, 3235 new confirmed cases of pneumonia infected with new coronavirus were reported nationwide, compared with 2829 the previous day. The rapid increase in the number of confirmed cases means that the epidemic is developing to its peak, and when to reach the turning point is the most concerned.

When will this turning point come and when will the number of newly confirmed cases begin to decrease? Academician Zhong Nanshan said in an interview with the media on February 2 that the epidemic is expected to peak in the next 10 days to two weeks, that is, the peak will occur between December 12 and 16 of this month. According to Jonathan read, an epidemiologist at the University of Lancaster in the UK, the summit will come around February 26.

In an interview with the global times, Chen Xi said that according to his research with some scholars from Yale University, the peak of the epidemic, turning point may appear in late February and around February 21. But he also stressed that all prediction models have limitations and many influencing factors cannot be reflected in the model. For example, it is difficult to predict the change of virus infection ability. Some scholars think that the virus toxicity is decreasing generation by generation, and even some domestic scholars are more optimistic that the epidemic will eventually evolve into a pandemic influenza.

Another important factor that cannot be predicted by the model is the intervention of the Chinese government. Chen Xi believes that the strong intervention of the Chinese government has greatly helped the prevention and control of the epidemic. According to a paper Chen Xi saw that has not yet been officially published in academic journals, the infectivity (R0 value) of the new coronavirus decreased by 30% after the closure of Wuhan.

In addition, Chen noted that the rapid increase in confirmed cases is also related to the increased availability of test kits. Tian Yulong, Vice Minister of industry and information technology, said Wednesday that the daily output of nucleic acid testing reagents has reached 773000, 40 times that of suspected patients.

Although there are more and more researches on new coronavirus and pneumonia infection at home and abroad, Chen Xi pointed out that one of the important reasons for the strong uncertainty of many predictions is that the source of infection has not been determined. With the gradual disclosure of information, some studies believe that the source of the new coronavirus is not only the South China seafood market in Wuhan.

The source of the virus directly determines the number of infected people in a generation. Some scholars have suggested that Wuhan should check the sewers. If there is bat feces carrying virus in the sewers, the virus is likely to spread throughout the city. If so, there will be more infections in a generation. In the early stage, the virus is more toxic and the mortality rate will be higher, Chen Xi said. If the source of the virus is only in the South China seafood market, then there will not be too many direct contacts, and more patients will be the spread of the second, third and fourth generations of the virus, so the mortality rate will be lower.

Primary medical institutions should be good gatekeepers

After his visit to China at the end of last month, Tan Desai, director general of the World Health Organization (who), praised China for discovering pathogens in a short period of time and sharing relevant information with who immediately, as well as its commitment to publicly and transparently release epidemic information. In Chen Xis view, Tan Desai mentioned the core of the epidemic prevention and control work transparency.

Chen Xi said that transparency determines many things, such as the allocation of resources and the level of public panic. Another key point related to transparency is fairness, which affects the rationality and fairness of material distribution. In addition, efficiency is a key factor.

Recently, the supply of medical materials in Wuhan and Hubei is tight, and many hospitals have announced an urgent inventory. Chen Xi said that in a special period, a strong organization with credibility and efficiency is needed to manage material allocation, such as the military. In addition, social forces should also be actively used, and their transparency, credibility and efficiency may be higher. In the United States, UPS, FedEx and other logistics enterprises will use their tight logistics network to participate in disaster relief and epidemic prevention. In fact, in the process of transporting all kinds of materials for Wuhan, logistics platforms such as Shunfeng and Cainiao have been playing a role.

If transparency, fairness and efficiency are the principles that need to be adhered to in the process of epidemic prevention and control, then in the distribution of medical resources, Chen Xi calls for the hierarchical diagnosis and treatment system to play its role as much as possible. Chen Xi suggested that basic medical institutions in Hubei need to play the role of health gatekeeper in the epidemic.

Its not right for people to run to the hospital when they are ill, Chen told the global times, saying that the basic outpatient service should do a good job of pre diagnosis to prevent a large number of patients from rushing to the hospital blindly. At present, it is the flu season and the high incidence period of cold and fever. According to statistics, more than 90% of patients are not patients with new coronavirus infection pneumonia. These patients go directly to the hospital, not only occupy resources, but also prone to cross infection. According to figures previously released by the national health and Health Commission, taking January 27 as an example, the number of reception in Wuhan fever clinic is 10261, of which 377 really need to stay in hospital for observation.

In addition, Chen Xi also suggested that telemedicine technology can be used more, and patients do not need to go to the hospital in person.

There should be more supporting measures besides huoshenshan and leishenshan

On the 2nd of this month, huoshenshan hospital, Wuhans first specialized hospital for the centralized treatment of patients with new coronavirus infection pneumonia, was officially delivered, and another leishenshan hospital is scheduled to deliver on the 5th. These two hospitals are copies of Beijing Xiaotangshan Hospital model during the SARS period in 2003.

(function(){(window.slotbydup=window.slotbydup||[]).push({id:u5811557,container:ssp_5811557,async:true});})(); The treatment conditions of huoshenshan and leishenshan will certainly be more suitable than the existing hospitals, Chen Xi said. Not only that, because many hospitals in Wuhan are used to treat pneumonia patients, which affects the treatment of other diseases, the construction of these two specialized hospitals is more valuable. In addition to the two hospitals in Wuhan, Xiaotangshan mode hospitals such as Dabie Mountain medical center in Huanggang and public health medical center in Nanjing have been put into use. Chen added that although learning from Xiaotangshan experience, the new coronavirus infection has a wider range of pneumonia infection, so the effectiveness of Xiaotangshan model may be lower than in 2003. Chen Xi suggested that we should not only increase capacity, but also cooperate with classified diagnosis and treatment, telemedicine, and hotel acquisition for medical observation. Otherwise, with the scale of more than 2000 beds in leishenshan, huoshenshan, it will soon be saturated. Source: Global Times Author: Zhao Jueyun editor: Wang Hailu na1702

The treatment conditions of huoshenshan and leishenshan will certainly be more suitable than the existing hospitals, Chen Xi said. Not only that, because many hospitals in Wuhan are used to treat pneumonia patients, which affects the treatment of other diseases, the construction of these two specialized hospitals is more valuable. In addition to the two hospitals in Wuhan, Xiaotangshan mode hospitals such as Dabie Mountain medical center in Huanggang and public health medical center in Nanjing have been put into use.

Chen added that although learning from Xiaotangshan experience, the new coronavirus infection has a wider range of pneumonia infection, so the effectiveness of Xiaotangshan model may be lower than in 2003.

Chen Xi suggested that we should not only increase capacity, but also cooperate with classified diagnosis and treatment, telemedicine, and hotel acquisition for medical observation. Otherwise, with the scale of more than 2000 beds in leishenshan, huoshenshan, it will soon be saturated.