Affected by the epidemic in January and February, the decline of the car market may be more than 25% or even about 30%. On February 1, Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the all China Federation of riders, said in an interview with 21st century economic reporter.
At the beginning of this year, different organizations in the industry have made different predictions on the car market in 2020. On the whole, most of the previous predictions think that Chinas car market will gradually build a bottom and stabilize in 2020. China Automobile Association predicted that in 2020, the annual sales volume of Chinas automobile market will be 25.31 million, down 2% year-on-year; the national passenger Association predicted that in 2020, Chinas passenger vehicle market will grow 1%.
The above prediction does not include the sudden impact of the epidemic on the car market. At present, even if the government departments and medical institutions actively fight against the epidemic, it is difficult to fully assess the impact of the epidemic on the economy and the car market.
The epidemic will have a certain impact on the whole automobile market, but the impact is temporary. With the end of the epidemic, the market will gradually return to its original state of operation. Luo Lei, Deputy Secretary General of China Automobile Circulation Association, said.
From the perspective of Chinas automobile consumption habits, the Spring Festival holiday is often the off-season for car purchase, and February is the low point of annual automobile production and sales. In January and February 2019, Chinas car sales were 2.367 million and 1.482 million, respectively, with the first two months down 15% from the same period in 2018.
With the decline of the car market in the second half of 2019 narrowing month by month and the low base in the first two months of last year, the industry had been optimistic about the expectation for the first two months of this year. Although the Spring Festival is in January this year, most manufacturers do not have a high expectation for January, but think February will have a certain increase compared with last year. However, affected by the epidemic, the production and sales data in February this year will be relatively low.
Some people compare the data of car market during SARS in 2003, and think that the impact of the epidemic on car market will not be too great. In 2003, SARS began to break out in February and ended in July of that year, lasting for half a year. However, according to the data of China Automobile Association, Chinas automobile market maintained a high growth in 2003, with the annual automobile sales volume of 4.3908 million, an increase of 34.21% year on year.
In Cui Dongshus view, the current situation of the automobile industry and the SARS period cannot be completely comparable, and the impact will be greater than at that time.
During the period of SARS, due to the relatively good economic environment and Chinas accession to the WTO shortly, the vehicle supply was in short supply, so the overall situation of the vehicle market in that year was still growing substantially. Now, the economy itself is at a completely different stage. Cui told reporters.
Cui believes that with the relative stability of the epidemic, production and operation will return to a relatively normal state. In addition, affected by the consumption psychology during the epidemic, the demand for vehicles will replace the demand for houses and become the reasonable demand of residents, which has a disguised promotion effect on the car market.
In the popularization stage of automobile in 2003, due to the strong automobile demand, the consumption was released in the second half of the year, making the annual sales volume maintain a rapid growth. However, at present, Chinas automobile market has entered the stock market, and the concept of automobile consumption is totally different from that before.
At that time, it was just a matter of buying a car early and buying it late. But now the situation is that the car buyers have already bought, and the market growth rate is falling. On February 3, Wang Qing, deputy director of the market economy Research Institute of the development research center of the State Council, told reporters of the 21st century economy.
In Wang Qings view, the impact of the epidemic on the car market mainly depends on two aspects. First, how long will the epidemic last? Second, how much will the epidemic affect the economy, and then indirectly affect the car market.
If the epidemic ends before April, it will not have a great impact on the car market throughout the year, and it will not have a great impact on the preferences and expectations of car consumption, whether it was intended to buy a car or not. Wang Qing said.
A number of industry analysts told reporters that the epidemic will delay the demand of the car market, but will not make these potential demands disappear.
From the perspective of different car buyers, it is mainly divided into three groups: additional purchase, replacement purchase and new purchase. Among them, the additional replacement purchase is mainly in the first and second tier cities, while the new purchase is mainly concentrated in the central and western, third and fourth tier sinking markets. In the automobile stock market, the main growth point of the market is to increase purchase and exchange purchase. Because of the impact of the epidemic on the macro-economy, the employment and income of people who buy new, increase or change will be affected, which will affect the ability to buy cars.
Some people believe that under the influence of the epidemic, it may stimulate the demand of some new buyers. sharing may be a false proposition, which can be shared at ordinary times, but when it is really needed now, the vehicles are nervous and cannot be shared. The car is a private space. People will pay more attention to this private space than before. They will think it is more important to have a car. Cui said.
Affected by the epidemic, public transportation in some cities is inconvenient, intercity and county-level buses are out of service, and didi and other network car Hailing services are limited, which makes some residents feel inconvenient, thus breeding their willingness to buy cars, especially in the Midwest, third and fourth tier cities, as well as small town youth and other groups.
Independent brands are mainly the first purchase demand, which has been greatly impacted in the past, but it is still very inconvenient to travel without cars in the third and fourth tier cities. The rigid demand for the first purchase group will be restored in the future, so I am relatively optimistic about the independent brand. However, I am concerned about the instability of exchange demand due to the economic impact, which may affect the high-end and luxury car market. Cui said.
However, Wang believes that the outbreak is transient. In the past, the influencing factors will be over, and the demand for and willingness to buy cars will return to the previous state. And in the process of the epidemic, whether you want to buy or not, you cant buy it. Everyone has to stay at home. This part of the demand is mainly affected by the duration of the epidemic and the inconvenience during the period.
Dealers win customers online
At present, most 4S stores have also suspended automobile sales business, especially in Hubei and other areas with serious epidemic situation. Hengxin automobile group, an automobile dealer group headquartered in Wuhan, is one of the dealer groups most affected by the epidemic. The 21st century economic report found on the official website of Hengxin that Hengxin has more than 300 4S stores in China, including more than 110 in Hubei and 29 in Wuhan.
Previously, the relevant responsible person of Hengxin disclosed that the group is considering the specific business hours of each 4S shop. The 4S shop outside Hubei Province is temporarily scheduled to open on February 3, while the 4S shop in Hubei Province is expected to open later. According to the current calculation, it may be postponed to the Lantern Festival on February 8 before the official business.
In addition, Yongda, Guanghui and other large auto dealer groups have announced plans to postpone the opening. At present, it is mainly to deal with the epidemic situation, and the life safety of employees is a top priority. At present, the vast majority of stores plan to start work on the 10th, and other places such as Wenzhou in Wuhan require 17 days later. On February 2, a senior executive of an automobile dealer group told 21st century economic reporter.
Some 4S stores have given solutions during the period of suspension of business, requiring the sales staff to do a good job in online marketing.
A 4S store salesperson told reporters that in the current situation, even if the opening will not have many customers to the store. Therefore, most of the relevant practitioners will focus on online marketing, with the help of vertical websites or e-commerce platforms, to complete the acquisition of potential consumers. Wait for the end of the epidemic before further promoting sales and other services.
At present, online shopping malls and telephones are more used by stores to receive consultation. In terms of service, convenient methods are used to carry out door-to-door pick-up and delivery services. On February 2, a senior executive of Yongda group told reporters.
It is worth noting that the industry chain of the automobile industry is long, and the impact of the epidemic on the automobile industry will continue for a while.
Last year, due to the downward trend of the car market, most auto manufacturers reduced the pressure by de stocking. Due to the postponement of the resumption time of automobile enterprises and parts enterprises, although some models are still in stock, it may also cause the shortage of some popular models and the shortage of after-sales parts. In the short term, the business pressure of dealers should not be underestimated. At the same time, the survival dilemma of dealers will soon spread to the upstream of the main engine factory, and dealers will reduce the number of car orders and intensify the contradiction between manufacturers. Some OEMs have realized this problem. Volvo is the first car company to propose to reduce the burden on dealers. On February 2, Volvo cars announced that it had decided to relax the performance assessment of dealers and not set sales targets for February. At the same time, considering that the income of dealers personnel may be affected by the epidemic, in order to reduce the financial pressure of dealers, Volvo cars directly provides personnel subsidies totaling more than 10 million yuan to dealers staff. Source: responsible editor of 21st century economic report: Chen Hequn, nb12679
Last year, due to the downward trend of the car market, most auto manufacturers reduced the pressure by de stocking. Due to the postponement of the resumption time of automobile enterprises and parts enterprises, although some models are still in stock, it may also cause the shortage of some popular models and the shortage of after-sales parts. In the short term, the business pressure of dealers should not be underestimated. At the same time, the survival dilemma of dealers will soon spread to the upstream of the main engine factory, and dealers will reduce the number of car orders and intensify the contradiction between manufacturers.
Some OEMs have realized this problem. Volvo is the first car company to propose to reduce the burden on dealers.